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Anyone like this 10x overbet shove OTT? 1/3 Anyone like this 10x overbet shove OTT? 1/3

06-02-2017 , 12:39 AM
Hero: $950
V1 $500
V2 $800ish

OTTH

4 limps
Hero limps A7ss OTB

6 handed

Flop:$ 18. QJT 1 spade
Checks around to CO he bets $5
I call 2 other callers

Turn:$ 38 Ks giving me nfd and nuts

BB leads out $10 CO minraises $20
Hero ships $950 is this standard? Free roll 20% chance I stack them and they have to call just to chop right?
Anyone like this 10x overbet shove OTT? 1/3 Quote
06-02-2017 , 12:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Turtol
Hero: $950
V1 $500
V2 $800ish

OTTH

4 limps
Hero limps A7ss OTB

6 handed

Flop:$ 18. QJT 1 spade
Checks around to CO he bets $5
I call 2 other callers

Turn:$ 38 Ks giving me nfd and nuts

BB leads out $10 CO minraises $20
Hero ships $950 is this standard? Free roll 20% chance I stack them and they have to call just to chop right?
Definitely standard if you don't think they can ever fold the nuts (I'd fold). Definitely the correct play if you have naked As. If you think they can fold, maybe make it more like $275 or so.
Anyone like this 10x overbet shove OTT? 1/3 Quote
06-02-2017 , 12:46 AM
I mean i guess, you could do the math with the percentages and fold equity + how often you get paid off when this shove goes as how you plan it to go but i would estimate that youre just losing value from some two pair and sets or even a pair that gets sticky

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Anyone like this 10x overbet shove OTT? 1/3 Quote
06-02-2017 , 12:53 AM
Seems fine

Raise pre super large
Anyone like this 10x overbet shove OTT? 1/3 Quote
06-02-2017 , 12:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pocketzeroes
Definitely standard if you don't think they can ever fold the nuts (I'd fold). Definitely the correct play if you have naked As. If you think they can fold, maybe make it more like $275 or so.
Quote:
Originally Posted by UpDog
I mean i guess, you could do the math with the percentages and fold equity + how often you get paid off when this shove goes as how you plan it to go but i would estimate that youre just losing value from some two pair and sets or even a pair that gets sticky

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So even without the nfd just the nfd blocker I should be making this play?
This situation doesn't come up often enough that I know what they would do. But I think they're both capped at nut straight.

I got snap called by A4 from the $800 stack and freerolled him ($150 or so sklanksy bucks my way) missed river tho
Anyone like this 10x overbet shove OTT? 1/3 Quote
06-02-2017 , 12:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Minatorr
Seems fine

Raise pre super large
I don't mind doing that with the wheel aces, but A6-A9s I usually just overlimp to be able to have some nfds in my overlimp range
Anyone like this 10x overbet shove OTT? 1/3 Quote
06-02-2017 , 01:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Turtol
So even without the nfd just the nfd blocker I should be making this play?
This situation doesn't come up often enough that I know what they would do. But I think they're both capped at nut straight.

I got snap called by A4 from the $800 stack and freerolled him ($150 or so sklanksy bucks my way) missed river tho
Doesn't matter what FD blocker you have when you it completes the nuts... It's the same situation with T8ss vs Ts8x on an AKQJss board.

I guess there can be some value from sets/two pair hands, but especially OOP, I'm not really looking for that value as you've gotta put most of your stack in if you want to deny correct IO, or you have to feel really confident about folding on a paired river.
Anyone like this 10x overbet shove OTT? 1/3 Quote
06-02-2017 , 02:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pocketzeroes
Doesn't matter what FD blocker you have when you it completes the nuts... It's the same situation with T8ss vs Ts8x on an AKQJss board.

I guess there can be some value from sets/two pair hands, but especially OOP, I'm not really looking for that value as you've gotta put most of your stack in if you want to deny correct IO, or you have to feel really confident about folding on a paired river.
But one of those hands you're freerolling, the other can still lose to a flush eg 65ss

Right now I'm assuming 3 of us have Aces so I'm going o be chopping 3 ways by shoving I fold out their equity I can win the pot and not have to chop it, and if a 2 pair/set calls that's amazing I'll take that all day, and even if a chop calls I still have 18% chance to stack them. I mean if someone snap called with a bare A then shoving must be the correct play? Unless you think there's value in keeping 2 pairs/sets in (are they even calling for $200 though?)
Anyone like this 10x overbet shove OTT? 1/3 Quote
06-02-2017 , 03:56 AM
It is a fantastic play.

If they are just calling with an A, then that means that they don't have any equity against your flush draw. And with the other players have a non Ace of spades, it is less likely that the other card in their hand is a spade, and increases the probability that a spade hits the river.
Anyone like this 10x overbet shove OTT? 1/3 Quote
06-02-2017 , 10:00 AM
I don't hate it but I don't love it either. We're only getting called by (most) straights, which we chop with ~80% of the time. We give up some value from sets, two pairs, and smaller flush draws that hit river.

It's dependent on what I feel villain will do with a straight. If I feel I can fold out some straights, I like it a lot. If I think straights will mostly call, I would rather try to get some extra value on this street and the river with a smaller raise. (Runs the risk of the board pairing, though.)

EDIT: What if we just call here? Doesn't that disguise our hand if we make our flush on the river? Will smaller flush draws put us on just a straight and pay us off more often?

Last edited by dmccoy87; 06-02-2017 at 10:05 AM. Reason: thought of something else
Anyone like this 10x overbet shove OTT? 1/3 Quote
06-02-2017 , 10:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dmccoy87
I don't hate it but I don't love it either. We're only getting called by (most) straights, which we chop with ~80% of the time. We give up some value from sets, two pairs, and smaller flush draws that hit river.

It's dependent on what I feel villain will do with a straight. If I feel I can fold out some straights, I like it a lot. If I think straights will mostly call, I would rather try to get some extra value on this street and the river with a smaller raise. (Runs the risk of the board pairing, though.)

EDIT: What if we just call here? Doesn't that disguise our hand if we make our flush on the river? Will smaller flush draws put us on just a straight and pay us off more often?
We don't want to fold out straights. We want them to call.
Anyone like this 10x overbet shove OTT? 1/3 Quote
06-02-2017 , 11:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pocketzeroes
We don't want to fold out straights. We want them to call.
My bad, should have paid more attention to pot size here.

That in mind, isn't this overbet too large? Before the raise there is $68 in the pot. In villain's shoes the hero can't really do this without the A so why risk your $500/$800 stack when our equity is <$34. I guess it is villain dependent. Will they risk their entire stack on this for a chop?

If we want them to call (and we do) would a smaller overbet (~$250) get more calls? Do we really have much IO on the river if we hit a spade? Villain will then fold, no?

Apparently this villain did indeed risk his whole stack for a chop. We had a 20% chance to get an extra $800 = $160 so the results support the shove. What we can't know is what the other villain had. Does a smaller raise get us some value from him? If our ~$350 raise gets 2 callers more often than a shove gets one, then you could argue for that.

I never hated the shove, but I like it a little more now.
Anyone like this 10x overbet shove OTT? 1/3 Quote
06-02-2017 , 11:08 AM
I like the move. People will call with any A. Two weeks ago made similar move shoving $850 into $200 pot with KT on 89JQ board. Got called by deeper stack w AT. He of course spiked his 3-outer, but the point being, he called it.
Anyone like this 10x overbet shove OTT? 1/3 Quote
06-02-2017 , 12:20 PM
I also overlimp preflop.

I fold the flop. Right now we're only drawing to an obvious 4-to-a-straight gutshot (low IO) and very likely someone else is doing the same (we'll be splitting any profits), plus as first caller we could easily get check/raised on this board.

Love the turn ship. Highly unlikely anyone is going to be able to fold the nut straight so lets just setup this massive freeroll. Very nice, imo.

ETA: Also couldn't care less about losing two pair hands and it's unlikely there are sets on this broadway board. Unless you opponents are incredibly ******ed, you're losing all two pair hands with any raise in a 3way pot since it is so obvious someone has the straight. So don't worry about those and instead target the straights. IMO.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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06-02-2017 , 01:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek

I fold the flop. Right now we're only drawing to an obvious 4-to-a-straight gutshot (low IO) and very likely someone else is doing the same (we'll be splitting any profits), plus as first caller we could easily get check/raised on this board.
IP w/ bdfd and gutter to nuts flop is easily a peel. pairing ace sometimes(v rarely but its still worth something) wins the pot.

If you took just 1 hand every 1-3 sessions where you have gutter +bdfd and raised with it instead of folding, you would steal more pots and get paid more when you actually have it. any regular in the room should know you have close to zero bluffs when you raise and ppl are probably quickly folding hands that should be paying you.

The badness of players usually handcuffs these plays somewhat, but these spots still exist. you aren't obligated to go crazy if they call you. pay attention to what textures this aggression is getting through on and which ones ppl are being sticky and think about how you can use info to make more money with your value hands.
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06-02-2017 , 01:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CookbytheBook
IP w/ bdfd and gutter to nuts flop is easily a peel.
I think flop is a trivial fold.

Eleventeen ways this board has likely smashed someone where our FE UI is low. Low IO on 4-to-a-straight where we're only getting ~4:1 on a 10.5:1 shot, plus if anyone else has an A we're splitting all profits (and profits are unlikely to begin with). Plus we're the first to call the flop bet with the world still to react (where we can easily get raised especially to this weak looking stabbing bet). And we're basically on a 1 outer as the only card that can potentially make money, and even then we still don't make up enough money most of the time (as in this results case).

Gnice1outer,toobaditdidn'tbreakusevenwiththeflopca ll,imoG
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