Harrah's NOLA Sippi Straaaaadle 1/3:

Hero (1200): Has been at this table for 8 hours at this point, has a read on everyone, super solid read. Feeling great, playing TAG (Truly, I'm finally getting it). Was even for 6 hours, now finally skyrocketing. Has only show one bluff. V was maniac asian who bought in for 1300. I bluffed 150 into 300 on river, he blasted the pot with 5 hundos. So obviously a bluff, but I had AJ on a 5 unders board. After I fold, he throws out AJ. Nothing I could do except maybe pump 200 into it as a bluff instead of 150... whatevs. Otherwise, I've been owning the table for the past 2 hours.

V2 (1400): Bought in for this amount... Moved to the table an hour ago, played two massive 1500+ chip pots. One three way, where he checked a flopped set of AA after raising pre. Demolished a turned two pair, but only broke even cuz the shorter stack hit the nut straight on the turn.
Hand 2: He 3 bet a dude, who in turn 4 bet, and he called. Dude bombs flop, he calls. Dude bombs turn, he folds QQ to KK. This was an odd one. Ive only ever seen 2 4-bets that were less that KK. But this table was super deep, and I'm new to that.

V2 recently moved to the right of hero because annoying drunk europeans dudes came. (Good news for me)


Currently 7 handed

OTTH:
Hero UTG (1200) KK (Black).

Hero raises to 20, I wanted action. My post flop play at this table has been dynamite, I figure 20 is good for 3 way. (Never know at these table, sometimes 45 gets 6 way action, sometimes 15 folds the lot)

Hero gets 3 callers, including V in SB.

Flop (80): 237

V checks, Hero bets 60, only V calls

Turn (200): 2

V checks, Hero bets 120 (I slowed down slightly, not sure if that 2 is good for me or bad. I think the guys range is super wide. He wants to outplay everyone post flop. Be the big bad awesome poker pro, could float super light. I also like sizing smaller here to keep more of his range in the hand. He's not a dude I would just bomb streets against like others in this room for value, I think I'm pot controlling a bit being so deep.

V calls

River (440): Q

For a split second, I think the worst. But remember the QQ vs KK insanity, and feel great again.

V leads for 200. Hero? Call or Value raise? I'm loving the paired board now, those twos give me confidence I'm not getting beaten by some weird two pair thing. I don't know if this 200 is a bluff after missing a draw, a bluff thinking that Q scares a lesser PP, or a value bet with a weird rivered two pair. I'm leaning towards a bluff. I don't see a hand that has me beat here that hasn't made a move yet.
He's seen me open raise UTG with 99s for 20 while 5 handed. Maybe thats the bottom of my range in his mind. I think my hand is underrepped here.

i would just call

Easy call. You've got a bluff catcher, so bluff catch. People bet missed draws small like this all the time. It's really dumb actually because they don't want to risk too much with the bluff but it ends up backfiring because it's so easy to call when getting 3:1.

Raise to $500.
Get more out of his AQ float / Q high flush draw.

At first thought just call but...

If we have AQ or QK-Q10 clubs, do we bet out 200 for value on river?

Is this how the math would be done?

Eval of raising to $500: (simplify by assuming we fold to any raise)

Range: 22 (1), 33 (3), 77 (3), QQ (3), A2s+discount A2o (4), discount 88-JJ to (2), AQ (9), KQ-Q10cc (3), other clubs (lets call it 15),

Out of his calling or raising range, we beat 12-14 (calling w/ 88-JJ?) and lose to 15.

Add in that he could bluff some %, and it becomes a clear "just call?"

If he has 22, 33, 77 wow has he let me off easy.

He doesn't have them often enough to matter. IMO his range is polarized between monsters and worse hands that won't call a raise.

I actually made a mistake in one of the HH. He lead with QQ, dude 3-bet, He 4 bet, Dude min 5 bet. He lead flop, dude called, he checked turn, folded to bomb.

And good to know, this is not a spot to raise for some value.
FWIW I Called.
He showed Q 3