Quote:
Originally Posted by SuqAta8
if you think you can get value from that range by 3betting a normal amount more often than not, then i think 3betting small is fine
but if you think he's going to fold out that portion of his range and only call with 4X, then shoving is fine
Thinking in terms of "more often than not" is probably a mistake... I think. In a spot like this if I believe villain has 2nd nuts and is at least a little fishy I'm going to swing for the fence to some extent. That may not be shoving in this spot but...
edit:/ I reread the quoted post above and I see Suq was referring to the folding out of non 4x hands not the overall betting decision.
He raised PF but then checked flop and turn. It's like almost never AA,99, 55, Ax or 33 IMO unless V is terribad which... still might qualify him as a swing for the fence victim.
If he might raise 22 or 44 PF, he has rivered a set or the oneliner to a wheel. There are more combos of 44 than 22 he could have.
Half the table called $8 so there is what $40-$48 in the pot? I like a slightly heartier bet. Maybe $20/$25 trying t get called by some random 2P or something. When he raises that bet I'm probably assuming he only calls my 3b with a 4 so that's what I'm going for. If he's fishy I probably go for it and shove.
As played a shove sure seems like such a massive overbet but I dunno...at the same time how different does his thinking have to be to call a shove versus calling $110. I recently had one of those shoves called where I shoved 350 into 80 on a 34567 board holding 89 and got called by 85 so I don't think considering the shove is bad at all. It is villain dependant but I would bet assuming he has a 4.
Besides "raising small repeatedly" did we have any reads on his showdowns? The raising PF thing only establishes that he has a wide range. We need some idea of how he views hand strength. In the example I gave I had seen villain snap call with no thought a river reraise with a non nut straight earlier... that factored heavily in my decision to overbet.
back to the more often than not thing...
I'm guessing if he is going to raise/call a normalish 3b on the river the shove is not -EV but it's only a guess.
Assuming pot is $50+60=110 If you bet $110 he is getting 220:80 or 2.75:1 so he needs to feel he's good a little more than 1 in 4. But he's probably not thinking that way.
If you shove for 410 he is getting 520:380 or 1.37:1 so he would need to think hes good a little more than 1 in 2 and a half times but he's probably not thinking that way.
In terms of your EV we are not concerned with what is already in the pot we have 100% expectation of that. But for the remainder of his stack...
betting 110 wins you 80 when called some % of the time less than 100% but assume it is 100%
betting 410 wins you 380 when called so if he calls a shove 21% (or about 1 in 5) of the time it is neutral EV ($0).
If he calls 25% it's +$15
If he calls 33% it's +$45
If he calls 50% it's +$110
If he calls 75% it's +$205
If he calls 90% it's +$262
Last edited by cAmmAndo; 06-06-2013 at 02:17 AM.