Quote:
Originally Posted by RecreationalFishie
Did you mean "shove the nuts 10%" or "shove the nuts 100%"?
I meant 10% (ten) of the time. About a year ago I started overbet shoving the nuts regardless of pot size and got mixed results. Then I limited myself to a random 10% of the time and got much better results. Then I started to really look at situations to determine which were ripe for overbet shoving the nuts and I got better about identifying the right spots to overbet shove the nuts.
So basically, I'm saying that if you randomly overbet shove the nuts 10% of the time (regardless of pot size) you will notice that it will have an interesting impact on your game. You will notice that you will get some interesting calls you would have NEVER anticipated getting. Then, after a while you will start to see a pattern for "when" is the best time to overbet shove and you will then eventually be able to better select times to overbet shove...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilmour
I have made som thinking on this topic the last day, and i have to say one thing: this overbet play has to be particular lethal against a player who has been coolered a couple of times short time before you overbet him. Or lost a couple of big pots in one way or another. The player will often be in a state of mind that says "i cant be beat again can i?" "I have xxx so i just have to call, he might be bullying me".
The way i am thinking can actually be seen as a similar situation in high stakes poker season 2: Where Negreanu gets coolered with having the nutz on the flop and being sucked out on a sick amount of times. Negreanu is slowly getting in a state of mind where he thinks people is making moves on him (try to bluff him), and calls everytime whith the second best hand in huge pots.
Dude, you are seriously overthinking this issue and giving fish way too much credit.
Yes, if a fish is getting coolered he can be tilty and be more prone to call. But that isn't really my argument.
My argument is simply that the majority of fish are just not thinking beyond Level 1. They will auto-call without even considering the math. In their mind, it just doesn't matter that the pot is $45 and the shove is $400. All they know is they have a straight, straight is the near nuts, straight is a great hand, and thus they must call.
I sense that you are just biased by your own views of the game and you have lost the ability to think like a fish or Level 1 player.
The more I shove in spots like this, the more surprised I am at the random crap that calls.
I've shoved in this spot and have gotten THREE CALLERS, each with a 4. the thought that "someone" could have the nuts and that they are calling merely to chop just doesn't cross their minds. You'd think the 3rd caller would think, "Man, at best 2 of these players has to have a 4 and so I'm really calling $400 to chop 3 ways and there is a chance someone has the 64 and if they do I lose so its best to fold..."
no. They just don't think like that. They will say, "Man, guess we all have a four, guess we are chopping" and they will call just to chop knowing everyone has a four...
you need to read my Donkaliscious thread. Seriously. You need to get a feel for how fish think and the mistakes fish make and why they make them. I just get the sense you are too biased by how you perceive the game...