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Old 05-15-2017, 08:43 AM   #1
toebester
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Annoying 3bet pot with QQ

Playing 1-2, saturday night game in local casino. Playing 230 efv. Villain has been playing fairly nitty. I know I have to fold river, but could I ever fold turn?

Villain raises to 7 in UTG+2,
I 3bet to 25 w/ QQ,
Villain calls,
Flop T92x,
Villain checks, I bet 30, call,
Turn offsuit 8,
Villain leads 65, I call,
River T,
Villain instajams his last 110.

It's a breakeven call ott vs 2 pair and this is best case scenario, although you do obviously sometimes see wacky plays at 1/2. I doubt this specific villain leads turn with JT or AT, which would be some of the valuebluffs you hope a fishier villain would show up with. I block the nuts, but I also block the best lead bluff candidates a balanced player might show up with on the turn, KQ or KJ.

The river is a fold. Hate to discuss live reads too much, but this player has been conservative about putting a single 25 dollar chip in postflop for the past 2 hours I have been playing, and now he tosses in 4 of them + change without a seconds thought.

I do beat 98s now, if i'm seriously underestimating his ability and he decides to turn it into a bluff, but only 2 combos of that on a rainbow board, whereas he has 13 combos of boats, 1 combo of quads, 2 combos of straights, (T8s,T9s,33,88,99,TT,QJs), plus his turn valuebluffs (JT,AT) just got there, although as I mentioned before, this specific opponent is unlikely to have them.

If this player is balanced ott, and decides to barrel turn and river with KQs,KJs (most likely folds offsuit combos to 3bet preflop), still only 6 combos of bluffs otr, given my removal with QQ. If villain is bluffing all of these combos 100% of the time, it is a pretty tough, but correct call as his value/bluff ratio is 16:6, and i am getting about 3:1 on a call. However this is a 1/2 nit, so villain is taking this line with KQs and KJs at a much lower frequency than 100%, making this an easy river fold.

I'm very interested to hear your thoughts on this spot.
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Old 05-15-2017, 10:27 AM   #2
matzah_ball
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Re: Annoying 3bet pot with QQ

Lmfao at pondering whether a 1/2 villain is balanced.

I also peel the turn but you're right about folding river. Villain could be overvaluing Tx or JJ on the turn but with solid reads you can maybe fold there.
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Old 05-15-2017, 10:32 AM   #3
toebester
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Re: Annoying 3bet pot with QQ

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Originally Posted by matzah_ball View Post
Lmfao at pondering whether a 1/2 villain is balanced.

I also peel the turn but you're right about folding river. Villain could be overvaluing Tx or JJ on the turn but with solid reads you can maybe fold there.
Sorry, I like to work from the basis that the villain is balanced, figure out how i should be playing against a balanced player, then make adjustments based on reads I have on the specific player. At 1/2, these adjustments will be very large from player to player.
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Old 05-15-2017, 10:36 AM   #4
donkatruck
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Re: Annoying 3bet pot with QQ

You say villian is nitty. Does that remove 88-99 type hands from his pfr range UTG? Does he ever semi-bluff?

All that being said, you have to make the decision on the turn. After calling the turn, the pot is $240ish. If you are going to fold, fold the turn. Vs line could easily be JJ and it's the one hand that makes sense if he is as nitty as you describe. He could also show up here with KK. I think you should have shoved the turn or folded the turn. As played I don't think I can fold here getting over 4-1.
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Old 05-15-2017, 10:52 AM   #5
matzah_ball
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Re: Annoying 3bet pot with QQ

The effort you put into the game is obviously admirable. I just think trying to start from an assumption of balance at 1/2 is beyond silly. No one is playing even close. They're all playing ridiculously slanted ranges and making terrible errors on every street. You're just creating too much work for yourself.
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Old 05-15-2017, 10:56 AM   #6
toebester
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Re: Annoying 3bet pot with QQ

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Originally Posted by donkatruck View Post
You say villian is nitty. Does that remove 88-99 type hands from his pfr range UTG? Does he ever semi-bluff?

All that being said, you have to make the decision on the turn. After calling the turn, the pot is $240ish. If you are going to fold, fold the turn. Vs line could easily be JJ and it's the one hand that makes sense if he is as nitty as you describe. He could also show up here with KK. I think you should have shoved the turn or folded the turn. As played I don't think I can fold here getting over 4-1.
No, I think villain will still take a flop with 88-99, given fairly deep effv stacks, although he may fold 98s or T8s given he is out of position.

Why do you feel you have to shove turn? Seems like a great way to put a load more money in behind than you need to. Not like I have an equity advantage vs his range.

Questionable if JJ would lead the turn. He's still crushed by my value range and wants to let me continue with any bluffs I may have, although I'll betting the turn very selectively, as I will want to pot control with most of my overpairs, which are in a brutal spot if they get raised.

I broke down his range in the original post. Im getting just over 3-1 otr, need to win just less than 25% of the time. Due to the player involved, I made the case that he won't be bluffing/valueowning himself 25% of the time.

To say that 25% is a small number so therefore you have to call is flawed logic.
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Old 05-15-2017, 10:59 AM   #7
toebester
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Re: Annoying 3bet pot with QQ

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Originally Posted by matzah_ball View Post
The effort you put into the game is obviously admirable. I just think trying to start from an assumption of balance at 1/2 is beyond silly. No one is playing even close. They're all playing ridiculously slanted ranges and making terrible errors on every street. You're just creating too much work for yourself.
The great thing about live cash is you have a lot of time to sit around and ponder those spots. Don't mind doing the thinking required if all I'm doing is waiting for a hand to open. Better use of my time than watching a movie on my phone.
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Old 05-15-2017, 11:07 AM   #8
matzah_ball
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Re: Annoying 3bet pot with QQ

That's true, but you really shouldn't let these sort of balance concepts influence your play at all. 1/2 players are simply not in the same universe just about 100% of the time.
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Old 05-15-2017, 11:16 AM   #9
recondite7
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Re: Annoying 3bet pot with QQ

Against an average 1/2 player I call down to the river, but against the nitty type described I fold river and consider folding the turn.

His range is really narrow here. Betting and calling UTG+2 I would imagine would be something JJ-77, AK-AJ and a few connectors (but none that really hit here). He definitely isn't value betting a worse hand either, so I would just give it up since he doesn't seem like the type to bluff. Expect to see a set of ten's nines or eights here a lot.
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Old 05-15-2017, 11:36 AM   #10
donkatruck
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Re: Annoying 3bet pot with QQ

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Originally Posted by toebester View Post
No, I think villain will still take a flop with 88-99, given fairly deep effv stacks, although he may fold 98s or T8s given he is out of position.

Why do you feel you have to shove turn? Seems like a great way to put a load more money in behind than you need to. Not like I have an equity advantage vs his range.

Questionable if JJ would lead the turn. He's still crushed by my value range and wants to let me continue with any bluffs I may have, although I'll betting the turn very selectively, as I will want to pot control with most of my overpairs, which are in a brutal spot if they get raised.

I broke down his range in the original post. Im getting just over 3-1 otr, need to win just less than 25% of the time. Due to the player involved, I made the case that he won't be bluffing/valueowning himself 25% of the time.

To say that 25% is a small number so therefore you have to call is flawed logic.
You can make that case, but if that's your read, why even call the turn? Give up there.

If we narrow his range to almost exlusively hands that beat us plus JJ we are still 4-1 (KK+,QJ,88-JJ). If we add any semi-bluffs and two pair hands to his range (KJ,89) we are getting better than 3-1. I'm not really questioning the river fold so much but if you range him to nutted hands only, fold the turn.

If he is as nitty as you say, he's not betting out the turn with AT type hands anyway so the river changes not much.
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Old 05-15-2017, 12:27 PM   #11
Axel Foley
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Re: Annoying 3bet pot with QQ

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Originally Posted by toebester View Post


If this player is balanced ott, and decides to barrel turn and river with KQs,KJs (most likely folds offsuit combos to 3bet preflop), still only 6 combos of bluffs otr, given my removal with QQ. If villain is bluffing all of these combos 100% of the time, it is a pretty tough, but correct call as his value/bluff ratio is 16:6, and i am getting about 3:1 on a call. However this is a 1/2 nit, so villain is taking this line with KQs and KJs at a much lower frequency than 100%, making this an easy river fold.
I think the bolded is quite an understatement. A lot of live nits don't even get to the flop with this hand (some of them don't even have to consider calling the 3b because they folded it straight away in EP). Their x/c flop/turn lead range will therefore be more overpairs than draws trying to set their own price, and even if they do that once in a while I don't expect them to quickly barrel river with bricked draws.

The value bluff I would be worried about most in this spot is JJ. However, I do think he would stop and at least think about shipping with that hand since it should be obvious to him that you have bigger overpairs in your range. But who knows. Some villains just think, "I don't want to get bluffed. I don't want to get bluffed. Hey, if I throw in my stack he can't get me to fold! That'll work." A blocker bet that acts as an odd thin value bet for the times when you 3b A9s.

Overall, I like the way you played it. Just calling turn allows you to get more info for your river decision and might encourage him to spew. Worst case scenario you would have 6 outs if he held a hand like KK/TT/99. You'd be getting a bad deal for immediate odds with these outs but with the $110 behind in position it's not such a bad deal (basically makes it 5:1 on your money rather than 3:1).
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Old 05-15-2017, 12:29 PM   #12
Rhombo
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Re: Annoying 3bet pot with QQ

I think a turn fold is okay. To me a nitty 1/2 v is opening like TT+ AQo+ (maybe tighter) from ep and is not really bluffing ever except maybe with a really strong draw, but you are giving him tons of combos and credit.

If v is more like the way I described him, he is weighted towards AA/KK and you are maybe beating JJ, so you are not getting a good price on the turn. If v is somehow a good thinking player like the way you are describing him, then he has like no bluffs on the river and it is a safe fold unless you have a read that he overbluffs in 3bet pots.
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Old 05-15-2017, 12:33 PM   #13
venice10
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Re: Annoying 3bet pot with QQ

The problem is that a "nitty" player is never going to be balanced. Therefore, trying to play balanced against him is at best sub-optimal and giving him a balanced range is a mistake.

With an SPR of about 4 on the flop, you're going to need a good reason to fold an over pair. I'm hard pressed to fold on the turn since lots of nitty players treat TP like the nuts. Wouldn't be surprised if you called the river and saw AA here too. As played, you beat 3 combos on the river that could play this way. Fold like you indicated you did.
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Old 05-15-2017, 12:54 PM   #14
toebester
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Re: Annoying 3bet pot with QQ

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Originally Posted by donkatruck View Post
river fold so much but if you range him to nutted hands only, fold the turn.

If he is as nitty as you say, he's not betting out the turn with AT type hands anyway so the river changes not much.
Theoretical:
Problem with folding turn is that this is the top of our range, second only to JJ facing a turn lead, given our removal on the nuts. [Cue the eyerolls, and 'you are only playing 1-2']

Analytical:

We have 16% vs a nutted range of sets + suited middling 2 pairs + suited straights, need 26% to call. If the river is a 7 and we are checked to, its a pretty mandatory jam. He will almost always fold a set here, and if he lead jams into us, we can be fairly sure he just has Jx, usually QJs, assuming his nutted range, so we can fold and move on.

He has 22 combos of nutted hands, 2 combos of QJs, so he has QJs 9% of the time. so we win on a 7 91% of the time (assuming he just gives up with a set/two pair on the 7). 7 comes 9% of the time, so our bluff equity on a 7 gives us another 8% equity in the pot.

Also, we get checked to a third of the time on a 3, assuming he checks middling 2 pairs to us. In which case we can value bet small. This is assuming he doesn't protect his checking range on a 3 with some stronger hands than 2 pair. We can probably get a decent sized bet paid on this card, which comes 7% of the time, so overall, this happens about 2% of the time.

Probably get a 20% pot bet paid on a Q or a J if checked to.

That gives us 24% equity (pot equity + fold equity) + minimal implied odds if we do nail a Jack, or a Queen, or a 3. Also, this is 1-2. I know hes nitty, but you cant rule out the occasional value bluff. It will just happen at a lower frequency.

Not trying to say that this is a clear turn call, and tbh im reaching for reasons to call, just because i'm trying to protect my play, just because it was my play, but I believe that the reasons given are valid, although riddled with assumptions.
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Old 05-15-2017, 02:03 PM   #15
Jay S
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Re: Annoying 3bet pot with QQ

How is this the top of our range? Are we flatting AA pre?

Some of the assumptions are reasonable. But a nitty player is rarely opening from EP & calling a 3b with anything that's two pair OTT. And he sometimes checks obvious straights OTR to let us bluff at them, which it sounds like we're planning to do.
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Old 05-15-2017, 02:49 PM   #16
toebester
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Re: Annoying 3bet pot with QQ

[QUOTE=Jay S;52217584]How is this the top of our range? Are we flatting AA pre[\QUOTE]
When we have QQ, they are less likely to have QJ
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Old 05-15-2017, 04:11 PM   #17
wck117
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Re: Annoying 3bet pot with QQ

you are WAY overthinking this hand. The turn is probably a fold, we don't make $ in 1/2 by calling nits bets. River is a definite fold.
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