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Old 04-12-2017, 06:46 PM   #1
Chicagodude
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Am I overvaluing 2 pairs in NL 1/2

NWI Indiana NL 1/2 games at the Horseshoe or the Majestic Star.
I tried to google this for some statistics but could find none.
I have found myself losing quite often when I have 2 pair hands. What I want to know is whether I am overvaluing them (generally speaking).
I have no online account anymore, but when I did from 2004-2006 I had poker hand analyzing software (poker tracker).
For the most part, statistically, 2 pair holdings were a statistical favorite in my database and a winner over how many thousand hands I played.
1 pair holdings were like a 40 to 50 percent winner at showdown.
2 pair won more like 50 to 60 percent of the time as i recall.
I know that it's all situation dependent, but should I be more careful than I am about betting out with 2 pairs in a strong fashion post-flop?
If this is a stupid question then I apologize for wasting your time.
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Old 04-12-2017, 06:58 PM   #2
aoFrantic
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Re: Am I overvaluing 2 pairs in NL 1/2

Two pair will win slightly less live than in your average online FR scenario because live plays on average deeper and on average the VPIP of players is over double. That said, this isn't a question that can be answered without specific examples.
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Old 04-12-2017, 07:09 PM   #3
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Re: Am I overvaluing 2 pairs in NL 1/2

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Originally Posted by aoFrantic View Post
Two pair will win slightly less live than in your average online FR scenario because live plays on average deeper and on average the VPIP of players is over double. That said, this isn't a question that can be answered without specific examples.
Higher vpip would mean lower averag starting hand strength which would mean lower average hand strength at showdown, ya?

So wouldn't 2p be more likely to be the best hand when compared to online if that is our metric?
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Old 04-12-2017, 07:10 PM   #4
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Re: Am I overvaluing 2 pairs in NL 1/2

Your own cards are only part of the equation.

Your question is like asking, "x=2. y is unknown. Calculate z.."

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Old 04-12-2017, 07:12 PM   #5
Chicagodude
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Re: Am I overvaluing 2 pairs in NL 1/2

excellent point, i should have thought of that yeah the VPIP is out of control where I play. Good point.
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Old 04-12-2017, 07:15 PM   #6
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Re: Am I overvaluing 2 pairs in NL 1/2

yes, true, i just meant on an aggregate level should i taper down my expectations with 2 pair overall?
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Old 04-12-2017, 07:25 PM   #7
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Re: Am I overvaluing 2 pairs in NL 1/2

here's one example but i've lost about 5 of these in a row this week
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17.../#post52055451
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Old 04-13-2017, 05:15 AM   #8
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Re: Am I overvaluing 2 pairs in NL 1/2

It seems pretty obvious to me but:
Online it's pretty rare to go more than 3way to a flop and will be heads up the vast majority of the time, so two pair hands become very strong holdings:
Live, it's pretty rare to not have at least 3-4 players seeing a flop, even in 3 bet pots....
More players seeing the flop, more cards are in play, hand values are going to go down because we a multiway....
So in summary I would say yes, two pair type hands are not as strong live as they are online because we are more often playing multiway pots.
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Old 04-13-2017, 06:08 AM   #9
venice10
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Re: Am I overvaluing 2 pairs in NL 1/2

As Mark Twain wrote years ago, "Learning how to play 2 pair is as expensive as a college education. And just as valuable."

I suspect that you are playing 2 pair like it is the nuts. Bet/Bet/Bet and get it in if someone shoves. Poker is more about relative value not absolute value. It is going to depend on the board, the other player and the betting pattern. Let's say you have A8, raised pf, had 4 callers and the flop comes AJ8r. You bet and a passive villain calls. The turn is a 2 completing the rainbow. You bet again and the villain raises you all in. Your 2 pair aren't worth much. There are no draws and a passive player isn't going to raise you with a pair of aces alone. Unless he has J8, everything else that he would raise beats you.

Compare that to a KQ8 two tone flop with you holding KQ. An aggressive player c/r you all in on the flop. Now your 2 pair looks good since he could be doing this an ace high FD or a worse 2 pair.

Start thinking about ranges and behaviors and you'll find you be able to collect more money and escape the traps.
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Old 04-13-2017, 10:34 AM   #10
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Re: Am I overvaluing 2 pairs in NL 1/2

wonderful advice brother. i'm going to read that a second time. thanks much!
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Old 04-13-2017, 12:35 PM   #11
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Re: Am I overvaluing 2 pairs in NL 1/2

Work on Ranges of hands your opponent can have, and calculating what turn and river cards could be bad for you.

For example, you have 7/8, and you flopped two pair on a 7,8,2 Rainbow flop. Any 4, Jack, 5, 9 (although less likely). Can complete a possible straight. So depending on board run out, your hand strength can go down significantly. Also, this can also be player dependent. Some weak Passives will only raise you with a set, so two pair may be a fold.

If your losing a lot with two pair, your either misreading your opponents, or not evaluating scare cards, or constructing Ranges properly. Or perhaps a combination of all of the above.
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Old 04-13-2017, 02:30 PM   #12
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Re: Am I overvaluing 2 pairs in NL 1/2

i also need on respecting my opponents more and try to think more in the present rather than what i've seen in the past
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Old 04-13-2017, 02:39 PM   #13
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Re: Am I overvaluing 2 pairs in NL 1/2

winning 50-60% of the time at showdown doesn't mean much. you might be winning small pots and losing big pots with it. fwiw the avg hand at showdown is 2pair.
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Old 04-13-2017, 05:55 PM   #14
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Re: Am I overvaluing 2 pairs in NL 1/2

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicagodude View Post
i also need on respecting my opponents more and try to think more in the present rather than what i've seen in the past
It's not exactly a question of respecting your opponents so much as respecting when certain opponents want to play for stacks.
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