Recorded with Pokerbase. Replay with web replayer.
Tue, Aug 13, 2019 10:36 PM
2/5 NLHE at Horseshoe Cleveland

SB starts with 300.
BB starts with 500.
UTG starts with 500.
MP starts with 500.
MP+1 starts with 155.
LJ starts with 500.
HJ starts with 500.
CO starts with 500.
BTN starts with 500.

Hero is BTN with 9T

SB posts sb 2.
BB posts bb 5.

UTG calls (5).
MP calls (5).
MP+1 calls (5).
LJ calls (5).
HJ calls (5).
CO calls (5).
HERO calls (5).
SB raises to 20.
UTG calls (15).
MP calls (15).
MP+1 calls (15).
LJ calls (15).
HJ calls (15).
CO calls (15).
HERO calls (15).

Pot 165.
*Flop* comes 8 7 2.

SB bets 50.
UTG folds.
MP raises to 235.
MP+1 calls (135) (allin).
LJ folds.
HJ folds.
CO folds.
HERO ???

My question is, am I mathematically priced in to call and if so can you explain why? Let’s assume no one has a set which at the time of this decision I was 99% sure of.

Can someone explain this hand in terms of pot odds and when you are mathematically supposed to call?

This is a clear stack off 100% of the time...I think

No you don't have the direct odds.

Let's assume stacks are getting in, since that seems likely to happen either on the flop or turn. Against 78 you have ~32% equity but you're being asked to call $485 to win a pot of $1320. This would require 37% equity.

That being said, it's closer if you consider implied odds. If we get there on the turn and V calls, we're only being asked to call $235 to win a $1320 pot (18%) and we have a ~16% chance of turning the nuts.

You can also consider the direct odds for the pot (assuming you don't go all in). Then it's calling $235 to win a pot of $820, where you would need 28% to call.

So no matter how you calculate it you do not have the odds to call.

That being said, things change if you put V on a *range* that includes bluffs instead of just assuming you need to hit to win. Against a range of {T9s, 56s, 78s, 77, 88, 22} you have 37%.

This is wrong!! You don't divide what you are putting into the pot by the pot. You take the total pot which let's call it $1500 to be simple and divide that by what you would be putting in total which would be $500 which is largest stack. This is where everyone gets confused.. you now should divide $1500/$500 which equals 3 giving you 3-1 odds. If you look up poker odds and convert that to a percentage its 25% so you only need 25% equity to break even and given that you have 8 outs you have close to 32% going into the turn and river. I'm not positive on this but I'm pretty sure

The pot is not $1500 without our call. If using a ratio, you don't add your call to the pot.

Correct, I just wanted to give $1500 as a round number to make it easier.

But it makes your whole analysis wrong.

if the pot is $0 and V bets $100, what do you think our pot odds are? How about percentage?

Hint: it's *obviously* not 2:1.

It's really not very complicated.

Pot odds: (pot) : (bet)
Equity percentage needed: bet/(pot+bet)

Well it would be $100 to win $100 so 1-1...

So what is 1:1 as a percentage. (50%)

0.5=100/x

Solve for X. It's really not hard at all. This is basic math you can easily read online without having to post/debate.

The call is burning money, you dont need to calculate pot odds to see that. You’re putting in 50(?)bb with ten high vs people who have shown strength. Don’t rly see why sets are discounted 99%, and even if you did have direct odds you arent closing the action, SB can rejam and if SB doesnt rejam you are certainly facing a jam from MP ott and have to fold

Initial pre call is w.e but should be folding to second raise, playing Ten high in an spr 1-3 is not good for making money, esp unsuited

Can someone explain the math? Let us assume that everyone is going to stack off.

$160 (preflop pot) + SB ($280) + MP+1 ($135) + MP ($480) = $1,055.

HERO ($480 effective) + $1,055 = $1,535.

$480/$1535 = 31.27%.

31.27% < 32% = EV+ shove.

Is this correct or incorrect?

So you and CoachK25 were in the same hand, eh? If so, you guys have the details a bit different.

So if we assume (oddly) that SB is always calling, your math is correct, but it's still a fold. Why? One because your 32% chance to hit a straight is just an estimate. It is actually 31.5%. But that's still < 31.27%, I hear you cry. Yes. But you don't always win when you hit the straight. Sometimes someone else has the same hand and you chop, and sometimes you get counterfeited by a full-house. If we give one of them an overpair, one 2-pair, and one a set, for example, you're only at about 27.5% equity.

Ok, thanks this was extremely helpful. I wasn't in the hand but saw it. Coach was the actual one in the hand.

The other issue, is that SB doesn't always call, AINEC. SB led less than 1/3 of pot and then watched a raise, call for less and a shove? Unless he's really bad, he's folding most of the time here.

That means that most of the time when we shove we're only looking at a pot of $1305 (assuming that MP always calls it off), so we'd need 36.8% equity. We're not even close to that.