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All In Shove on the Flop - Call or Fold All In Shove on the Flop - Call or Fold

03-28-2018 , 04:39 PM
1/2 Home game that I've regularly been attending.

Villain is in his early 20's and has been to a couple of these games in the past, although this is my first time playing against him.

Villain Notes (Based on previous games):
- Doesn't play a lot of hands but isn't necessarily tight
- Likes to play middle pairs or better or any two face cards
- Plays aggressive and isn't afraid to double barrel his over cards against a dry and/or low flop/turn

Hand Notes:
- About 1/2 hour into the game
- Hero is in the SB with $200 stack
- Villain in on the Button with $100 stack

OTTH:
Villain Button Straddles for $5. Hero limps in with T8c in the SB. Folds around to Villain who raises to $20. Hero calls.

$42 in the pot, flop is 567r (no clubs). Hero checks, Villain shoves all in for $80.

Hero?

My Thoughts:
- I decided to limp because I know a lot of the players at the table like to limp in when there is a straddle in play, and I felt T8c would play better multiway.
- Based on previous observations my gut feeling is Villain is shoving with two overcards to get me to fold a straight draw or low pair.
- I don't think he has a monster pair (QQ+) or a set, as I don't think he would shove if he did.

Spoiler:
Hero calls, turn is a 5s, river a 3d. Villain shows KQo and wins the pot.
All In Shove on the Flop - Call or Fold Quote
03-28-2018 , 04:50 PM
This is just a pot odds problem. You have to bet 80 to win 122. It's not correct to play for the open-ended straight here. That's 66% investment with only ~32% equity, even less if he has a set because the board will pair some fraction of the time. I wouldn't assume you are good if you pair your tens or 8.

You should fold.

I also wouldn't have put in 20% of my stack preflop with a very speculative hand. You don't have the implied odds to hit a hand you want to get stacks in with.

Last edited by cmc0605; 03-28-2018 at 04:58 PM.
All In Shove on the Flop - Call or Fold Quote
03-28-2018 , 04:52 PM
more importantly than bad direct odds is bad implied odds. He has $100 and just raised to $20, you cant call and hit a straight/flush often enough to EVER make this profitable. This is a fold pre 100% of the time. You'd both need about $400 here to get involved in this hand.
All In Shove on the Flop - Call or Fold Quote
03-28-2018 , 05:28 PM
would never be calling pre against villain whose short stacking with T8cc. Guys already invested 20% of his stack and you can never win enough to make the call profitable. AP fold.


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All In Shove on the Flop - Call or Fold Quote
03-28-2018 , 06:46 PM
Folding is best, as your intention should be a cheap flop multiway with this hand.

HOWEVER, I wouldn't mind a shove after a straddle raises 4x, likely trying to collect dead money, and I think we get lots of better hands to fold (offsuit broadways and ace rag).

I think calling is the worst play in that spot, SPR is 2 and you are OOP with a spec hand.

As played, flop is one of the better ones you could ask for and HAVE to call off with way too much equity and drawing to the nuts.
All In Shove on the Flop - Call or Fold Quote
03-29-2018 , 04:03 AM
Fold pre.
All In Shove on the Flop - Call or Fold Quote
03-29-2018 , 05:06 AM
Fold pre fold flop. Hands like T8 are only good in position and with deeper stacks. You are going to have 40% equity or less against a reasonable opening range and stacks aren’t deep enough for their to be implied odds.
All In Shove on the Flop - Call or Fold Quote
03-29-2018 , 08:31 AM
Ill say this much....if your read is correct that he only has overcards then you should call because you are just about a coin flip. The question is how confidant in your read. My guess is not very confidant at all.

PS...your reasons to limp are bad and calling the raise is horrific.
All In Shove on the Flop - Call or Fold Quote
03-29-2018 , 08:37 AM
fold pre
fold to raise
fold to shove

maybe you can play this hand if you know you're completing the action preflop but putting in 2BB with garbage first to act is a bad time.
All In Shove on the Flop - Call or Fold Quote
03-29-2018 , 10:30 AM
Being a very loose preflop player myself, even I most likely fold this pre both times, but most certainly to the raise. Your OOP (no no #1) vs a V who has a short stack (no no #2). Even if you stack him this hand (unlikely), over time you will be lighting a ton of $ on fire making this play because the odds just aren't there.

AP, you certainly have 8 outs and who knows maybe as many as 14. $120 to call $79 means you need ~40% equity to call at 0EV. I dont' think you have that versus his range so I let it go.

I do agree with the other poster though that shoving yourself maybe is the better way to play it once you get to this flop. Only Q is how likely is he to fold an OP to this move as you need decent fold equity versus his entire range to make it at least 0EV if not +EV.

BTW, this hand was posted 2x.
All In Shove on the Flop - Call or Fold Quote

      
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