Villain is an old Caucasian male looking to be in his 50s. He was dressed in a buttoned up shirt and slacks and wore glasses. He had literally just sat down at the table 5 minutes before this hand took place.

Hero has been noticeably winning pots at showdowns. He’s been raising preflop from various positions and the table folds to him. This may be a function of the table being relatively tight and the winning image hero possesses at the time of this hand.

Live $2/$4 Full Ring Cash Game at Oaks (200maximum bet or raise on top with $400 max buy-in and $5 drop)

Stacks:
Hero is UTG+1 with $1100
Villain is CO with $450

Pre-Flop: ($6) Hero is UTG+1 with AA
Hero raises to $20, folds around to CO and he calls $20, blinds fold.

Flop: K36 ($41, 2 players)
Hero bets $30, Villain calls $30.

Turn: 7 ($101, 2 players)
Hero bets $80, Villain raises to $200, Hero?


At this point I feel like I only have 2 options: either to put V all-in or fold.
V only has $200 behind so I feel that calling would be the worst option since I’d be out of position leading to the river so if I want to get it in, the turn would be the best time. With his raise, I feel like V is ready to commit the rest of his chips. Some of the questions I considered included: Is V overplaying top pair here? If he has KK then wouldn’t he 3-bet me pre? If he has a set of 3s or 6s then why did he not raise me OTF “to protect his hand against a flush?” Is he pot controlling in case a 3rd diamond comes OTT? Did he turn 2-pair OTT? 45 definitely gets there but is that within his calling range preflop? He doesn’t seem to dress like a degen so would K3/K6/K7/36 be in his range? Does he have the balls to raise with a pair and a flush draw he had OTF or got OTT?
What else would you consider and what is your line here?

Thank you!

I'm guessing Villain - in view of how you described him - flopped a set, and while the first card may have been a bit of a worry to him the second is more where that came from, so he's making you pay to stay in, probably thinking you're on a draw. I just don't see him betting on the come here.

No sense in overthinking at this point since he's been there all of five minutes. I'm folding here if I'm in your shoes.

Also, I'm not sure why you described your table image if the villain indeed sat down only five minutes earlier - how does that factor into the equation?

http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/show...t=1&PHPSESSID=

Generally speaking, I try to avoid playing for > 100 bbs stacks (effective) with TP, especially vs. an unknown. Frustrating, but relatively easy fold.

Is this really baluga? We have an overpair not top pair, and the board is about as wet as can be. for 100bb I don't think I would fold here. Am I stupid?

You're right. This is irrelevant.

Kind of pointless to speculate since V is new to the table. Chalk this one up to folding being a much safer play without better info and find a better spot to make money.

A few preliminary remarks:

With so few informations in our hands I think that the sad and untold truth is that it's just impossible to answer questions such as " Is V overplaying top pair here?" or "Could he holds K7?", etc...

If someone tells you "Yes! this guy could easily be there with K6!", he's just talking about what he doesn't know.

In such cases, we are forced to model kind of an average player and try to play optimaly against him, but we have to keep in mind that it always be far less profitable as the plays you make when you get to know at least a little bit your opponents tendencies.
That's why information is so valuable in poker and good players don't get involved in a lot of pots before they get to observe the table for a few rounds.

Now the hand:

I plugged the numbers into CREV and really, the EV of the fold and the EV of the push are practically the same.
Now, of course any small piece of information (like whether he looks like a passive guy) could easily tilt the balance in either direction.
In this spot, Villain could show up as much with 45 than 33 or AK...

It all comes down to question of variance and image ,if you don't mind variance or if you want to build up an image of a tenacious player you should call, otherwise you should fold.

I tanked for 5 minutes. At this time I was trying to get a read on him. He looked a little nervous but I couldn't tell if it was because he had a set or two pair or something and was worried that a flush might get there or if he was legitimately worried since he's behind. I tried talking to him and asked him "How big is your kicker?" He just went "hhhhmmmm."

One question I would ask myself is: What does V think I'M representing?
This is more important that many of your other questions.

From you're bet line - I'd say you're representing AK at the minimum.
So when he's re-raising you, isn't he saying that he beats that?

Now granted, he could be semi-bluffing with 8,9c, AKc and many other combo/draws. Or even a total bluff. But based on limited info, you've got to give him some credit.
Plus, the fact that you've got the Ad tells me that he's not after a diamond flush.

My gut tells me he's playing 7,6 and he reraised AFTER he made his hand.

Although you've got outs, I'd fold and pick a bet spot.

IMO, Baluga theorem does apply here.

It basically says that when you get check/raised or re-raised on the turn (or river) - and you hold only a pair - in most cases you should fold because you're beat.

This is obviously player and table dependent, but in our 1/2 games - it's been right 95% of the time.

Old guys like this will generally take passive lines. In order to justify getting it in here you would need to either identify him as a complete novice (u know, the type that plays poker once every few years) or as a maniac which is pretty rare for someone of villain's description.

After tanking for 5 minutes I ended up folding the hand and asked the guy what he had. He said, "I'll tell you what I had after the game." I then replied, "I'll pay you $5 right now to show what you have." He then tells me, "I had top pair and turned a flush draw." I saved the $5. But then I wondered is he really telling the truth. Why wouldn't he just show me the hand instead of telling me and take the $5?

When I was cashing out at the cage, he was standing right behind me. I then ask him again, "Did you really have top pair with a flush draw or did you have two pair/sets." He says, "I had top pair and a flush draw." I say, "Oh, so you had K8 or something?" And he goes, "No, I had AK with a flush draw."

I'm not sure whether or not to believe this guy. On one hand, it is less likely he has AK (6 combos) since I'm blocking his A with my AA. But on the other hand, his line is indicative of a hand like AK.

So......idk.

Well there is only one combination of AK that was a flush draw and your AA certainly didn't block it. I believe he had AKcc. However, had you called it would have still been a bad call despite the fact that you were ahead. That's because even if we add AcKc, KcQc, KcJc KcTc (he may not even raise with all these Kings even with flush draw) to his list of possible hands his range still crushes you. That is only 4 hands. Then add 3 combination of 66, 3 combinations of 33 (maybe some KKs), 4 combos of 45 sooted, and any 2 pair type hands you think he might have here.

It is pretty clear that he would not raise you with simply top pair top kicker (thus the call on the flop).