1/2 NL Casino

$4 straddle

Hero opens to $18.

Unknown older white calls from SB.
Straddle calls.

Hero and SB are about 350 effective.

Flop 10108 2 spades

Hero bets 30
SB calls

Turn 5s

check check

River 8

SB bets 50

SB probably doesn't have a flush. So the question is how many 10x hands is he calling 18 pre with? A10 is less likely bc I have two of them. K10 maybe? 90 suited maybe? I don't know. 1/2 players are so unpredictable unless I have good history.

Since he is an unknown I don't know. Some older guys are still loose pre and some are tight. He could also think a worse overpair is good since I checked the turn.

Sometimes I check flops like this and then bet or call safe turn cards.
I checked turn simply bc both the flush and trips possibility make it so I am not getting called by much worse, but can bet river for value. I would have bet any river that was not a 10 or another spade.


Which is worse here OTR: A call or a fold?

As played, you really can not know where you are at. Folding AA on the river for such a small bet is a shame since you took it this far. If you are going to fold now, you may as well have folded pre.

As for the rest, I find your flop bet low. With a pair and flush draw, I am happy to take the pot down on the flop, or fold to a shove.

I expect to see 99+ enough to make calling profitable at 3:1 odds. I agree flushes don't bet the river.

For Tx hands, I expect AT, KT, QTs, JTs, T9s - 22 combos
For 8x hands, I expect 98s, 87s - 4 combos
Of course the rare 88 and TT combos.

I think 99, JJ, and QQ could angle for thin value on the river. I estimate you lose 28 combos and beat 18. Seems like a straightforward call on the river to me.

I'd call, raising opens us up to being put in a hurt locker. Doubt flush, but if V turns it or x10, nh, move on, minimal damage done. Agree about betting more on flop.

In spots like this, I just basically think to myself, AA on paired flop = one to two streets. It just makes the thinking a little bit more simple, especially for the size of the bet. Just call and shrug it off when you're beat.

everything gets there........ spades, tens full, eights full........muck it.

if he bluffs you with ace high, just make a mental note and move on.

I'm actually okay with the flop bet size. 3-handed this board hardly ever hits anyone and most 8x isn't continuing for more than 30$ IMO. That said, I think you're behind most of his continuing range here on this runout, would he really bet JJ here? I'd look him up and down and if he looked pretty comfortable I'd happily fold and remember he calls 9BBs out of the SB with KT type hands. Maybe make a glib remark and see if he shows you one card.

Oops didn't notice river paired 8s. Yeah this is a fold.

Missed that too. You're not gonna be good there a lot. If I called and he flips flush its standard. Quads, x8 / x10, I make a mental note about how he didn't bomb the betting.

+1