Hero and Villian have $600 stacks.

Villian (SB) has been playing tight, mostly folding for the hour he was at table.

Hero in BB with AdAh.

UTG calls for $5, Villian (SB) calls, Hero raises to $20. Both players call.

Flop: 9c 6c 4h

Villian checks, Hero bets $40, UTG fold, Villian Raises to $100. Hero calls.

Turn: 5d. Villain shoves... Hero ???

Tag is kind of a meaningless read. Against a true tag this might be a tough spot, but most people described as tags are just nits, against whom this is a snap fold.

Also, you should make it 30 preflop, though some will argue that even that is too small.

Why would anyone argue that it is too small?

It's too small only if you are a really bad post-flop player, then AA becomes a RIO hand when people do anything but passively calling or folding.

Only reason I would say preflop raise is too small is if these specific villain's will call more.

If I were The villain in this hand I'd be raising the flop with a mixture of sets and strong draws. I would shove the turn with a similar mixture but weighted more to sets than draws and the draws I'd use would be the strongest ones. I'd be attempting to create a turn shoving range that is as wide as possible while being impossible for you to profitably call against with overpairs.

I expect most tight villain's are not doing this and shove the turn almost exclusively with sets. However, I suspect quite a lot of players raise the flop with a draw even though the majority of them don't fire again on the turn unimproved.

Trouble with this hand is that the turn actually completes one of the most legit draws that can x/r the flop: 87s.

Yes, at the same time hero doesn't hold Ac so villain can have a lot of NFD semibluffs in his range. However, I think if he is good enough to x/r semibluff the flop AND shove the turn with some of those bluffs he is also good enough to ensure, like I would, that the semibluff shoves have enough equity and are a small enough proportion of his range that hero cannot call profitably with overpairs. Therefore turn is a fold.

Personally I would just fold to the flop raise this first time on the assumption this tight villain is more likely a nit who only raises sets. I'd only change that opinion based on some evidence to the contrary.

I think V has the 7c 8c and the straight got there. V can also be stacking off with a set.

I think the key moment is on the flop. Calling the raise gets you closer to committing you to the pot and you have to decide how far you are willing to go with AA. If a blank came on the turn and V bets again I would call with the intention to call blank rivers.

With no other HH to go with I would have folded on the flop, especially if I just started playing. If a similar situation happens again I would call.

All of this. I would pretty much never flat the flop, tbqh. I'd either be folding or shoving to deny the semi-bluff range odds if I thought there were enough semi-bluffs in his range. Relatively readless as we are, I'd fold flop based on sizing which looks more like a set looking for value than a semi-bluff looking for FE.

^ agreed, flop is shove or fold. V really has to have a lot of semibluffs/bluffs in with his sets to make shove profitable though. Anyone inclined to do the maths and tell us how many semibluff combos V needs to x/r and call a shove with alongside his 9 combos of sets before hero can profitably shove?

Obviously having AA rather than KK makes a big difference because KK suffers against V's AXcc semibluffs much more than AA does. Maths for that too anybody?

Snap call, AINEC.

What range are you putting V on then Buster65?

Tight player who CR small on such board is usually doing so with set.

Without better read, I have no problem just folding.

I also considered the fact that Villian might have 96s or 64s and was calling loose pre flop. Its true that he has been playing tight mostly, but in these 2/5 games he may even feel he is SB already in for 5 and decide to play his "suited connectors" and now he is betting/shoving to protect his 2 pair. Do you think KK or QQ is a possibility here for villain?

No. A tight player with any ability to be aggressive is not overlimping QQ/KK from the SB, unless they have a read that you're going to raise, in which case they are limp/re-raising it.

What's your image? Fold, can't be bad in this spot.

Raise size is fine. I want callers, want to protect my raising range as a whole.

After UTG limp, I am making it a lot bigger pre. If late position was first to limp, I'd be fine with your size.

I know this is kinda dumb, but can we go like 175/fold on the flop, all in on any non-flushing turn? I mean are they just always 4bet shipping their draws??

Definitely call turn bet. I think it's unlikely he's shipping with a straight here.

He can have like A9 or TT or A4cc

Raising to $40 or even $45 doesn't stop someone from correctly set-mine. It just turns our hand face up.

Happy to fold here, chances of limp-calling with QQ or something is zero so I'm not sure exactly what we think we beat? I mean maybe he's on a draw but surely his range has us crushed.

Grunch:

I sigh fold this. Villain is often unbalanced in this spot specifically the player type and how long he's been folding for.

It's highly unlikely he limped 99 in SB, so we can confidently eliminate that. But 66/44, 64, some 96s, Ac4c, and AcXc are part of his range. Although I added some AcXc in his range, I think that's a bit ambitious since tight players won't often c/r semi-bluff this strong.

Flop b/c is fine, but the turn shove by villain is almost always a fold. If he shows a bluff than note that down for future.

Oh, and raise bigger pre, I'd make it at least $30.

Actually!

I should've thought a bit more about the flop call. After reading some responses above I stand corrected. I think flop fold is better than calling.

Calling would be ok if villain can show up with some air here, but w/o any HH we cannot confirm this. After villain c/r flop he's almost always DB any turn and we're not happy with any card other than an A.

So if we call flop with the intention of folding turn then flop call isn't most +EV. And in this spot, we're mucking out hand on the turn a lot.

So, I stand corrected, fold flop to the c/r

Flop is not a shove or fold spot, lol, it's a fold or call spot. It might be a fold, but a shove is much worse than calling against the described player.

Personally I think the 5d is a good card for us. I mean, it looks awful as the obvious straight got there, but if he was x/r'ing the flop with a set, then it's gotta be perceived as an action killing card and he's less likely to just ship for value. But against an unknown, this would be perceived as a good bluff card. So when it turns up, and he goes all in, I'm actually happier to call than if a complete brick peeled and he shoved.

If he really is a TAG, he shouldn't have very many straights here.

^Sorry, yeah agreed. I'm not saying I'd shove on this player - I'd definitely fold - we just got slightly sidetracked into discussing how to deal with a proper TAG raising a somewhat balanced range of sets and draws. The relevant point was we don't believe V is a real TAG.

Anyway I was hoping someone would do a load of maths on that for me...

Sorry, work and Black Friday, etc.

V never has a str8 here as described. He has all combos of 9s, 6s, 4s, Ts, Js, I actually think Qs ARE possible, at least enough to give him half the QQ combos, and, of course, air.

Even if you added half the combos of 87 (unlikely IMO), and ignored completely the air in his range, Hero is a 52.6%-47.4% favorite.

If you drop the Qs and the combos of 87, Hero is a 56.5%-43.5% favorite.

Snap call, IMO.