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Old 02-16-2014, 02:49 PM   #26
andees10
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Re: AKs UTG facing 3-bet

How do you know villain is a thinking player with only two hands?

Without more info on his 3b range, 4bet/stack off is the play
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Old 02-16-2014, 02:58 PM   #27
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Re: AKs UTG facing 3-bet

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Originally Posted by endodocdc View Post
Do people not read the entire HH anymore?

Cliffs: Hero has played two hands thus far. Villain has played two hands thus far. there hasn't been any iso-raising light, 3betting buttons, etc





winner IMO
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Old 02-16-2014, 04:10 PM   #28
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Re: AKs UTG facing 3-bet

Let's assume a range for him of QQ+, AK. If we call, about 1/3 of the time an A or K shows up if he doesn't have one. We win the pot 50% of the time and split it 50%. EV = +15. The rest of the time, we lose our call of 42. EV = -28. Net is -13 EV.

If we raise, he probably folds all AK and maybe 1/2 of his queens, which is about 1/2 of his range. EV = +44. He probably 5 bet AA and KK, and we fold. Against QQ, we're basically flipping so we'll ignore it. EV = -63, for a net loss of -19 EV.

For a shove to be successful, we need to get KK to fold. This depends on the player. If he can't fold kings, then folding is the right answer in a vacuum. If he has a case of mubs, then shoving is better than raising or folding.

All that said, there's also a case to be made that if this is a long term strong opponent, we're going to need to defend our raises with more than QQ+. Otherwise, he'll exploit us by raising ATC for an immediate profit. Therefore, shoving starts making more sense.
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Old 02-16-2014, 04:43 PM   #29
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Re: AKs UTG facing 3-bet

I think you should just assume low stakes players are only 3betting QQ+, AK until given a reason to believe otherwise. And thus I fold, especially since your UTG open should make it clear you're strong.
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Old 02-16-2014, 04:54 PM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fold4once View Post
If we can agree this is a raise or fold spot, and there is a similar EV either way, I think the decision is essentially based on how you're going to approach this game/table from a meta POV.

Do you want to establish that you're capable of 4-bet shoving AK vs. this kid? Would that improve the future dynamic between you and him—or you and the rest of the table?

Do you want to lay it down and avoid this guy in close spots, focusing your efforts on making the most money possible from the horrible players at the table?
Like this post a lot.

Question I have for OP is, Is V ever folding to a 4!/shove? Can't imagine OP having zero sense of this after even just 30 minutes.
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Old 02-16-2014, 09:30 PM   #31
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Re: AKs UTG facing 3-bet

Since this is a raise/fold spot I'm leaning fold because of the stack sizes. 4betting a decent amount commits us to calling a shove and we need a lot of fold equity to make shoving ~$360 into $90 profitable.
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Old 02-16-2014, 10:12 PM   #32
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Re: AKs UTG facing 3-bet

100bbs against anything but a nit who won't 3! except with AA/KK, I'm just shoving. Especially if this is someone I'm going to be playing with a lot.
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Old 02-16-2014, 11:31 PM   #33
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Re: AKs UTG facing 3-bet

fold quickly
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Old 02-17-2014, 12:03 PM   #34
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Re: AKs UTG facing 3-bet

I see quite a bit of 4 bet or shoving here but what i dont see is the reason why.




FACTS

I dont hear OP say that he plays with V more than this time only.

We have no idea that the V has heard of hero being a LAG, nor whether he could be the type to try and take advantage of that fact.

I seriously doubt V is 3 betting any hand worse than JJ or AK---ever.

I dont see V folding any of these hands.

Unless somewhere in the above is incorrect, then we have a fold. 3 bet ranges vs early openers among players with no history are flat out tight ranges that dont fold. Plus, they are rarely JJ and even lesser TT, so QQ+AK winds up being the bulk of the range in a vacuum. And we cant wait to 4 bet this range?




Note: There WILL be some large discrepancies in gameflows depending on region, and the OP will have to enlighten us on whether these 3 bets in his local are usually tight, or if they are spewy quite often (example, in certain areas of Canada there are games filled with Oil rich spewtards who just love to gamble, and their overall 3 bet tendency is off the chart preflop) Until the OP tells us that there is anything odd about his particular 3 bet gameflow, I have to assume the norm, which is tight as crap.
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Old 02-18-2014, 03:12 PM   #35
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We got 42% against QQ+ AK. Add in fold equity and dead money and you have argument for raise/shove.

But reads and table dynamic is the deciding factor for me.
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Old 02-18-2014, 03:15 PM   #36
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I probably raise to gii on the flop
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Old 02-18-2014, 03:24 PM   #37
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Re: AKs UTG facing 3-bet

if he 3bets more than AA/KK this is an easy 4bet to 160 and snap a shove

usually good players like him will 3bet aq+ JJ+ making for an easy 4 bet and get it in
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Old 02-18-2014, 05:11 PM   #38
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Re: AKs UTG facing 3-bet

Thanks for the responses everyone! Definitely gave me a lot to think about here, but I'm surprised you guys are giving him such a tight range personally. My range for V's 3betting was KQs, ATs+, JJ+ ... and maybe an occasional air ball given the spot?

The main factors I considered in this spot were:
-Villain is on the button
-I made an EP 6x raise against a fish that limped in, very clear indicator of attempting to isolate and wanting to price out others in the hand, I'm fairly certain that V picked up on this.
-Villain has a very straightforward image on the table so far - i know this is counter intuitive, but given that he has a very good spot for making this play, I have to think he knows something about how the table perceives him.
-He raised 3x even after I opened to 21 - maybe people read this differently, but my guess is that if he is raising to something smallerish maybe ~50 to price in my hands that I would ISO with, not blast me out of the pot.

All together something just felt off about the spot so I shipped it in and he folded. Given my FE against AK and my blockers to AA/KK I thought it was the best move.

Just wanted to see if I just got lucky here and what your guys opinion of my thought process is here? If I think he's FOS is a clickback/call shove better to keep in possibly AQs/AJs and lower pairs and just shove all flops?
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Old 02-18-2014, 06:01 PM   #39
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Re: AKs UTG facing 3-bet

That 3betting range you give him sounds pretty optimistic given that you're isoing an UTG+1 limper from UTG+2 and he's mostly an unknown and you're mostly an unknown to him. KQs and ATs would be 3betting as a bluff in this situation btw.
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Old 02-18-2014, 06:15 PM   #40
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Against that range. Which is quite large live, then it is massively EV to shove. Even if he folds every hand except KK AA we show a profit.
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Old 02-18-2014, 06:29 PM   #41
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Re: AKs UTG facing 3-bet

I wonder if villain mucked because he put you on aces, or because he had something like AK or even QQ and thought you must have him crushed.
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Old 02-18-2014, 06:44 PM   #42
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Re: AKs UTG facing 3-bet

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Originally Posted by Steve00007 View Post
I wonder if villain mucked because he put you on aces, or because he had something like AK or even QQ and thought you must have him crushed.
I mean clearly in this particular instance it was the correct play, can pretty much be certain he didn't have KK.

I think just the fact that he folded however, means that his range here has to have included QQ/AK, so this can't be all that bad.
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Old 02-18-2014, 07:22 PM   #43
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Re: AKs UTG facing 3-bet

What range are most giving the villain here?
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Old 02-18-2014, 07:25 PM   #44
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Re: AKs UTG facing 3-bet

[QUOTE=riguy724;42219979]Thanks for the responses everyone! Definitely gave me a lot to think about here, but I'm surprised you guys are giving him such a tight range personally. My range for V's 3betting was KQs, ATs+, JJ+ ... and maybe an occasional air ball given the spot?




Wow, that is interesting. Your game must be pretty spazzy bluffy active overall I assume? I mean, we have been at the table 3 rounds only.
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Old 02-18-2014, 07:51 PM   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AintNoLimit View Post
What range are most giving the villain here?
Kinda hard to answer. But if he opens 55 in CO and EP raises without A or K and doesn't c-bet. Looks like a competent opponent. Definitely not a nit.

Then I would think his range is strong but plenty wide with position. A-Q, A-js, 99+.
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Old 02-18-2014, 07:59 PM   #46
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ANL

I understand your thoughts on live 3 betting. If a passive or OMC 3 bets it is AA/KK 100%.

But there are also lots of aggros and solid tags and lags that 3 bet lighter.

You never see a passive raise 55 in CO when they can limp cheaper. Rarely see them raise QQ pre.

I think better question (we can't answer without out knowing his folding tendencies) is 4 betting or shoving better. Stacks are almost deep enough where we can 4 bet smallish and fold. (Only if we have played with V more).

Obviously you have 10 times the experience I have.

Am I wrong we should be raising for fat value? If he stacks off with QQ+ AK we are still +EV.

Last edited by mikko; 02-18-2014 at 08:13 PM.
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Old 02-18-2014, 08:44 PM   #47
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Re: AKs UTG facing 3-bet

Raising 55 preflop =/= 3betting wider than AK/JJ.
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Old 02-19-2014, 02:53 AM   #48
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Re: AKs UTG facing 3-bet

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Originally Posted by mikko View Post
Kinda hard to answer. But if he opens 55 in CO and EP raises without A or K and doesn't c-bet. Looks like a competent opponent. Definitely not a nit.

Then I would think his range is strong but plenty wide with position. A-Q, A-js, 99+.
Great points here, seeing an opponent who opens pocket 5's as opposed to just overlimping must know that he has to win pots when he doesn't hit for this to be profitable. I hadn't weighted this heavily in my decision to be honest, but now that I think about it, it shows that V has some creativity and must feel he has a postflop edge on opponents. Interested to see what other profiling people can do with this info.
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Old 02-19-2014, 03:03 AM   #49
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Re: AKs UTG facing 3-bet

[QUOTE=AintNoLimit;42222171]
Quote:
Originally Posted by riguy724 View Post
Thanks for the responses everyone! Definitely gave me a lot to think about here, but I'm surprised you guys are giving him such a tight range personally. My range for V's 3betting was KQs, ATs+, JJ+ ... and maybe an occasional air ball given the spot?




Wow, that is interesting. Your game must be pretty spazzy bluffy active overall I assume? I mean, we have been at the table 3 rounds only.
Yes I must admit I've had some spazzy spots, leveling myself and taking marginal holdings too far. I've been doing a lot of work lately on evaluating my own image and seeing how it affects others play against me, but I have to assume that V has seen me play terribly at one point or another... I'm workin' on it. Active is a pretty cordial description of my general play style I suppose
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Old 02-19-2014, 03:27 AM   #50
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Re: AKs UTG facing 3-bet

Experience really doesnt enter into it that much really. I talk to so many players from all over who constantly tell me that 3 bets from unknowns vs early raises are like QQ+ and only sometimes AK at 1-2.

Now in your locality only you would know the answer to this. Raising 55 in CO and 3 betting an early opener is different "to me".

If you see TT and AK regularly 3 betting early openers, then I would 4 bet about 2.5x to get wide calls from the 3 bettor.
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