AKs...looks so pretty - Page 2 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

I think you're giving button too much credit, he's 3betting a maniac , he's OTB, and you block AA and KK, so if you give him QQ+ or JJ+ it's a shove, especially when you can often win a side pot vs the maniac when he calls off with a worse hand

Quote

04-10-2019 , 08:16 AM

#27

MikeStarr

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Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 7,962

Quote:

Originally Posted by tmo1120

I think you're giving button too much credit, he's 3betting a maniac , he's OTB, and you block AA and KK, so if you give him QQ+ or JJ+ it's a shove, especially when you can often win a side pot vs the maniac when he calls off with a worse hand

That's why I eventually shoved, but I have 100s of hours with the button and I was 90% sure he cant have anything below QQ

Quote

04-10-2019 , 08:16 AM

#28

tmo1120

adept

Join Date: Aug 2018 Posts: 1,027

I think you need 30% if you end up HU vs guy and he has QQ+, you would have 34.6 % vs that range

I think I did the math right

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04-10-2019 , 08:24 AM

#29

MikeStarr

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Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 7,962

Quote:

Originally Posted by tmo1120

I think you need 30% if you end up HU vs guy and he has QQ+, you would have 34.6 % vs that range

I think I did the math right

Button has $350
Assuming UTG folds...he put in $165
UTG+1 put in $30.
I have $30 in and will be putting $320 more in if I jam (HU against button)

$350+$165+$30+$30+$320= a total pot of $895

I will be putting $320 more at the decision point.

$320/$895 = 36%

I need 36% if I get HU vs the button. Im slightly -EV HU vs the buttons QQ+

Quote

04-10-2019 , 08:53 AM

#30

tmo1120

adept

Join Date: Aug 2018 Posts: 1,027

895/320=2.80 to 1

1/3.80=26%

this is assuming that he is calling

Quote

04-10-2019 , 09:11 AM

#31

tmo1120

adept

Join Date: Aug 2018 Posts: 1,027

320 to win 595 ( 350+165+30 +30)

595/320=1.86 to 1

need 35 % equity

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04-10-2019 , 09:19 AM

#32

MikeStarr

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Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 7,962

Quote:

Originally Posted by tmo1120

320 to win 595 ( 350+165+30 +30)

595/320=1.86 to 1

need 35 % equity

I actually got 35.7%....but close enough and still slightly -EV. Im more interested in total eV when we add in UTGs range

Quote

04-10-2019 , 09:31 AM

#33

tmo1120

adept

Join Date: Aug 2018 Posts: 1,027

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeStarr

I actually got 35.7%....but close enough and still slightly -EV. Im more interested in total eV when we add in UTGs range

that'

Quote

04-10-2019 , 09:34 AM

#34

tmo1120

adept

Join Date: Aug 2018 Posts: 1,027

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeStarr

I actually got 35.7%....but close enough and still slightly -EV. Im more interested in total eV when we add in UTGs range

that's tricky with calculating how often he calls, and you're equity vs his range when he calls, and then applying that to the potential side pot

the times you win the side and not the main, the times you win both pots, and the times you lose both pots

in kinda complicated I feel like lol just bc of the # of potential outcomes but If I had to guess I'd say it's +EV bc the maniac being in the hand is good for you bc you have ways to recoup money if you lose vs the OG with QQ+ and you have some % of the time you scoop to balance out the equation in your favor

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04-10-2019 , 03:30 PM

#35

MikeStarr

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Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 7,962

I friend of mine ran this hand thru whatever software he has.
He gave the button QQ+
He gave UTG 88+ ATs+ AJ+ KQ

With those ranges, my jam was significantly -EV. I forget the amount but it was enough that I shouldve folded which is what I was afraid of.