Regular home game (1/2).

Villain is seemingly a winning player. He plays sporadically and spends lots of times talking about people he knows in tournaments and other miscellaneous poker topics. Can and does handle chips well. Seems to play TAG but certainly knows how to exploit weakness when he sees it.

Hero is probably viewed as TAG and winning by villain. No significant history. Can't 100% recall how hero played last time villain was present at the game.

Game started a few orbits ago. Hero has 282 (down from 300). One raise and fold when donked into 4 ways. Villain had not done anything yet and covers.

Villain MP, Hero HJ.

Folds to villain who makes it 10, hero looks at AhKh. Hero raises to 37. Pretty sure this is standard.

Villain quickly makes it 100 total.

Hero?

The 4 bet is too big to flat, so this is an easy fold the first time. Given your description of an unknown but apparently competent opponent, villain could be betting lighter then most or even outright bluffing. However, you are unknown to him also and he should be worried your 3 bet range is tight. Thus it isn't likely he is making a move. You have no solid idea what his range actually is. Your stuck between fold and shove when your beat or crushed a lot.

In this sort of situation you fold and pay attention to what villain is actually doing in the game.

I guess end thread.

Spoiler: Knew I couldn't flat, and couldn't make myself fold.

Shove. Snap call. Get there vs. Aces.

yeah we don't have enough info on him to think he would 4bet/fold you light.

Yeah I fold here, there could be an argument to shoving all in if V views you as loose and aggressive and sees your 3-bet as a steal but I don't see that dynamic here. I know you have blockers but you are crushed here a lot of the time and the other time you are a slight underdog to QQ.

This is a fold for me as I know I have to improve to win and he probably doesn't.

This is simple math,

The vast majority of "competent" rec-fish never 4-bet with anything other than AA, KK, AK.

Not ever.

This is never QQ or JJ or AQ so this is an easy fold.

Now, if V was an aggro spewtard gamble monkey then sure, we can shove. But barring that, and assuming V is your typical competent rec-fish, easy fold...

It's 63 to win 200. So we need 31.5% equity to call. Against KK+/AK we have over 40% equity.

Still I agree that it'll most likely be a difficult hand to play post-flop.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.249% 13.35% 26.90% 996991 2009704.50 { AhKh }
Hand 1: 59.751% 32.85% 26.90% 2453934 2009773.50 { KK+, AKs, AKo }

I just had a thought regarding this example...

how exactly do the tie percentages come into play regarding our overall equity?

It doesn't sound right that AKs would have 40% equity against a range of AA/KK AK.

This makes me want to build a computer simulation to brute force prove it over a million iterations...

What am I missing?

We can't really risk $63 to win 200 because we don't know what card are good and bad for us.
We can't realize out to the river equity just by calling pre flop as we still have effective stacks behind, and we will almost certainly be getting less than 30% equity on the rest or our money post flop except for the rare times that we
A) Freeroll AKo on a board.
B) Get an ace high flop against KK. And then we are almost certainly not getting the rest of his money.

I'm fairly sure that we outright win 13.34% of the time.
And we chop (obv against AKo and AKs) 52% of the time.
Since we take half the plat, blah blah, we win an effective 13+.5*52 or 40% of the time? Only thing I can think of that makes sense here.

okay, I think I get it, LOL, funny i never quite thought about it like this before... guess it makes sense... I'll have to let it stew in my brain a bit more though...

I instinctively want to think about our equity in terms of only our wins (that 26% number)...

in any event, I think I get it...

AKs vs. AKo is like 53/47 and there's a bunch of those matchups combinations-wise so it skews the equity to be closer to 50% than it should be.

Soul Crushed

PLAYER_1 AhKh
PLAYER_2 AA

All-in Equity

	Equity %	Wins Hi %	Ties Hi %	Wins Hi Count	Ties Hi Count
AhKh	12.1405%	11.5126%	1.2558%	591393	64509
AA	87.8595%	87.2316%	1.2558%	4481010	64509

Should still be soul crushed but dem ties illusionary
PLAYER_1 AhKh
PLAYER_2 AA,AK


All-in Equity

	Equity %	Wins Hi %	Ties Hi %	Wins Hi Count	Ties Hi Count
AhKh	41.7812%	8.2462%	67.0700%	1694397	13781313
AA,AK	58.2188%	24.6838%	67.0700%	5071938	13781313

Thanks B!!!!

Ignoring the math (or just stating it in Layman's terms): Without significant dead money (and after rake there is none here), it could'nt possibly be profitable long-term to shove in a spot where you're tying at best. The pot odds aren't even correct to race against an underpair.

I'm not sure I understand your point. There's 74 dollars + blinds - rake of dead money in this pot. It makes a huge difference in Hero's equity.

grunch

I think I could argue for a fold. If villain truly sees you as TAGish then he isn't doing this without QQ+. I think jamming ONLY gets called by hands that beat you and flatting leaves awkward stack sizes. Is he really going to get this out of line with JJ or AQ? I don't think so. Unfortunately you might be throwing away a chop but eh.

What this comes down to is if he will 4bet with AK. This has been worked out many times in the micro forum. If you decide he will then shoving is ok. If he won't then run. I see more v's who won't 4 bet KK than Vs who will 4 bet AK.