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AKs drawwwwww AKs drawwwwww

12-13-2019 , 12:58 PM
Borderline thread worthy / kinda straightforward spot but meh I don't post much.

2/5 LAG underground game. Played 40+ hours with Villain who I'd classify as a pretty standard LAG, opens too wide, calls down with marginal / speculative hands, will attack weakness. Hero's is one of the tighter players at the table and V is aware of this. $500 effective.

Folds to V in MP who raises to $15, hero on button makes it $65 with AK V calls.

Flop ($120) 728
V checks, Hero bets $75. Favorable flop for us, I feel he's weighted towards pairs just over the board, suited connectors, maybe Ax. Potentially paint. Maybe sets. I don't want to give up initiative here when I feel x/x he'll likely fire almost any turn and I'll be in a tougher spot. Suspect I'll be ahead most of the time when I hit A or K on turn. V calls.

Turn ($270) 5
V checks, Hero....
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12-13-2019 , 01:28 PM
I keep firing, and probably call a raise/shove. You probably have so many outs. I doubt he's check/flatting two pair or better on the flop. If he hit two pair or better on the turn, so be it. I guess you can take a free card if you want, but it gives him one, too.
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12-13-2019 , 01:41 PM
I agree, with your image i'm always firing again on the turn around $200 and calling off to a shove.
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12-13-2019 , 01:48 PM
Given your stack size it's difficult to make any normal bet on turn and fire meaningful on the river. So I prefer a shove on the tun now.
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12-13-2019 , 03:47 PM
I prefer a check here. The fact that you have a tight image doesn’t help as much here because you never hit this turn card. his one pair hands often picked up a straight draw and I just don’t think you are getting the fold. Take your equity to the river. Secondary option is rip it now SPR is under 1.5 and we want max fold equity now. I really dislike 200 or any bet sizing not all in
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12-13-2019 , 05:44 PM
idk if I'm supposed to let this post marinate for a certain period of time, but given the fact that it's a relatively straightforward spot, and that I won't be able to respond for two days, I'm just going to post results now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Spyutastic
Given your stack size it's difficult to make any normal bet on turn and fire meaningful on the river. So I prefer a shove on the tun now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by megamen70
I prefer a check here. The fact that you have a tight image doesn’t help as much here because you never hit this turn card. his one pair hands often picked up a straight draw and I just don’t think you are getting the fold. Take your equity to the river. Secondary option is rip it now SPR is under 1.5 and we want max fold equity now. I really dislike 200 or any bet sizing not all in
This encapsulates my problems pretty well, rather than pushing turn or simply checking I took the worst option and sized my turn bet to allow me a push on the river...but in hindsight I think my sizing made both the turn bet and the theoretical river push ineffective.

Hero bets $150, Villain calls. Pretty much priced him in with whatever draw / marginal holding he had.

River ($570) is 7 Villain pushes for $220ish and hero can't find a call with Ace high, even getting almost 4 to 1.

If Villain checks river we have to push right? I mean we are pushing on any river that is checked to us?

idk how to hide results but villain claimed he had a straight draw and a 7 which I have to assume is 7 6 suited. Assuming this is true, was his river push a mistake?
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12-13-2019 , 06:18 PM
The way you played the turn if river gets checked you have to check back and take your showdown value. You have like no FE vs hands that beat you. Villain's odds is too good on river to try to bluff him off any pair he gets there with.

That's why you just needed to shove the turn.
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12-13-2019 , 06:50 PM
Size down flop, check turn, fold river unimproved. Your equity against even one pair is around 30% ott, so I don't see why you'd want to commit more money to this pot at this point. A turn jam given your range makes little sense since V could have easily improved to 2p or a straight (making up a lot of his calling range) against which you have even less equity.

Maybe it's silly of me, but I generally like to get all the money in good, not behind. "But fold equity yaddah yaddah." Yeah, let me know how often FE works out for you in the long run in these games.

Last edited by DumbosTrunk; 12-13-2019 at 07:05 PM.
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12-13-2019 , 06:57 PM
We're 34% against red QQs here. Shove turn if villain is folding one pair here, check behind otherwise. I wouldn't do something in between.

With your perceived image to Villain, it's an easy shove
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12-13-2019 , 07:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RoadtoPro
We're 34% against red QQs here. Shove turn if villain is folding one pair here, check behind otherwise. I wouldn't do something in between.

With your perceived image to Villain, it's an easy shove
76 86 99 never folding here villain is described as thinking and sticky. Those players are never folding these types of hands which make up majority if his range. I think it’s a pretty clear check
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12-13-2019 , 07:09 PM
It's hard to say.. From Villain's perspective OP is one of the tighter players at the table and he just shoved $340 into $270. I don't think it's profitable to call with 76 86 99 in his shoes.

If the roles were reversed everyone would tell Villain to fold 99 here facing a shove by Hero.

Also, I don't think we have nearly enough info to assume Villain is "never" folding a pair + OESD or small overpair here lol
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12-14-2019 , 02:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk
Size down flop, check turn, fold river unimproved. Your equity against even one pair is around 30% ott, so I don't see why you'd want to commit more money to this pot at this point. A turn jam given your range makes little sense since V could have easily improved to 2p or a straight (making up a lot of his calling range) against which you have even less equity.

Maybe it's silly of me, but I generally like to get all the money in good, not behind. "But fold equity yaddah yaddah." Yeah, let me know how often FE works out for you in the long run in these games.
I totally agree with this.
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12-14-2019 , 07:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk
Size down flop, check turn, fold river unimproved. Your equity against even one pair is around 30% ott, so I don't see why you'd want to commit more money to this pot at this point. A turn jam given your range makes little sense since V could have easily improved to 2p or a straight (making up a lot of his calling range) against which you have even less equity.

Maybe it's silly of me, but I generally like to get all the money in good, not behind. "But fold equity yaddah yaddah." Yeah, let me know how often FE works out for you in the long run in these games.
Lol, okay. Turn is a blank and we should comfortably be jamming TT+ here
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12-15-2019 , 05:25 AM
Shove turn as played.
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12-15-2019 , 08:08 AM
I see that nobody has commented on the preflop action yet. Is it standard to 3bet 4.3x IP 100 bb effective? I would make it $50, unless villain is known to call way too many 3bets. Also, the pot can't be $120 on the flop.
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12-15-2019 , 09:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sheep86
I see that nobody has commented on the preflop action yet. Is it standard to 3bet 4.3x IP 100 bb effective? I would make it $50, unless villain is known to call way too many 3bets. Also, the pot can't be $120 on the flop.
Given Villain’s description it’s perfect. He’s not folding very often and our 3! range is way ahead of his raising range.

It can if the rake is 10% capped at $10, which seems standard for an underground game
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