Hero: 450 or 500 effective. Hasn't gotten out of line and has been playing pretty abc. Bluffed a few times and took down some pots but never showed

Villain: reg. See him a lot. Had about 500 also. Has been playing very crazy this session. He has been drinking and his first hand it was limped to him and he shoved all in pre flop for 180 dollars. Has been playing up the crazy card a lot and when he has it people have been paying him off. It's worked so far.

Otth

Hero on button gets AK of diamonds. One limpet and I raise 15. Main Villain in small blind calls and another villain calls

Flop is k 8 5 two clubs one diamond. Checks around and I bet 25. Only villain in small blind calls.

Turn. 10 of spades

He checks and I bet 40 and he calls.

River. 8 of hearts

Villain immediately puts out all his green chips which comes out to 275 dollars

Hero?

Welcome to the forum, OP.

You really haven't said enough about how V has been crazy. That PF shove is not really applicable in this hand. What else has he been doing? In particular, we need to know about his river betting habits and what he's shown.

Too small on the flop. Pot is $45. Board is a bit wet and you have 2 Vs (one of whom is apparently "crazy"). You should go at least 3/4 pot here, and I'd prefer pot.

Also, we need to know if the K on the flop was a club. If is wasn't, there

AP, wayyy too small on the turn. It looks like you are basing your bet sizes on what you bet last time, instead of on percentage of the pot. Pot is $95, and you bet under half pot vs. a "crazy" V who is deep and has shown interest. Get that value!

AP to river, this is where we need to know about what kind of crazy he's been. Obv never raising, as he's never calling it with worse. His range here is mostly busted draws and KT (though it prob raises turn most of the time), and random 8s. There are a few merges in there with 9T, or KcXc, too, but not too many. Figuring out how many of each is in his range requires a lot more V info. If V has been making overbets on the river and showing the goods every time, then his early street "craziness" is pretty irrelevant, except that it is fooling people in to paying him off. If he's shown a mix of things, or hasn't been overbetting before this hand, it skews the range differently.

Pot is $175 before his bet. Your call would represent 38% of the pot. Does he have a better 2-pair, or trips+ 62% of the time here? Villain dependent. With the limited info we have, I'd say probably not, and we should probably call. If he's been making big river overbets and showing down big hands consistently, though, it's a fold.

Thank you for the response. We were only at the table for a few hours and I guess by crazy I mean he would do a mix of things like way over betting pot and having the goods at times and sometimes not having the goods. I guess I perceived him as crazy because it was Saturday night and he was drinking heavily and seemed like he wanted to just gamble.

You are totally right. I did not bet according to the pot as I should have. Seems like a leak on my game and I thank you for bringing that up to me

I just couldn't understand why he would bet so big on river obviously at 1/2 this is usually butted or missed draw. I figured if he had a set he would have let me know before the river with some type of raise with the draw(s) out there but who knows

He also perceived me as a tight player because right after I raised pre flop he said you probably have ace king. I didn't really know what to make of that but it did make me think a bit because he may have put me on that hand and thought with a big river bet he could get me off of it

I appreciate your help this forum is amazing

In that case, snap call, imo. If he has a random 8, oh well. Sounds to me like we have at least 50% equity against his range, and we only need 38%.

Glad you are finding value in the forum. I'd let this sit until at least tomorrow before giving results, as a lot of folks don't post on 2+2 during the weekend, so you may get some good feedback tomorrow.

Hand looks fine until the turn. Id bet about 2/3 pot there, or check back hoping to induce a bluff on the river. But almost certainly betting and betting a healthy amount.

As played I think its close but I lean to folding. Only real draw on the flop is a flush draw so he has way more combos of made hands than draws. Its close and really read dependent so hard to say for sure but Id probably talk to him a bit and try to get a read. Since he either really wants a call or really wants a fold, maybe you can get a read. I say fold but like I said its close.

67 makes an OESD OTF.

Villain would need to have about 50% more bluffs than value hands for hero to correctly call here. Even with the image described (really not that much), that's not something I see a lot of in the games I play. Folding seems fine. Also, agree that turn sizing was too small.

?? Why?

If V has one combo of each (obv wrong, but just easy math to show a version where it is equal) then we obv have 50% equity, right? If we scale that up, as long as the bluff/value ratio remains equal, we have 50% equity. Since there is any money in the pot (amount doesn't matter), we obv are getting better than a 50% price on a river call. In this case, there is $175 in the pot, so we only need 38% equity to call.

Thus, he can't quite have 50% more value hands than bluffs (that would only work for a PSB when we need 33.33% equity, not an overbet), but it's closer to that than the opposite which you said, as far as I can tell.

I made the call. Before I post results I have a few questions

Can we take sets out of his range because he did not check raise any streets?

In a situation like this is his check call range usually draws?

Would anyone ever do this with a K x type of hand?

Basically on river he's saying he has a full house? Am I right to assume that's the story he was trying to tell? Or trip 8's? Would trip 8's really over bet like this?

The K on the flop was absolutely a club unless there were two K of diamonds in the deck. OP had AdKd in his hand.


The check call range all depends on the player. Most would usually c/r the turn at the latest with a set or 2pr. However, thinking opponents may let it play three streets like this. There were a couple of draws that villain could easily have in his range. Overall, the board texture is better for the villains range than yours typically.

The villains comment preflop is pretty standard for 1/2. It is fairly common for players to immediately put you on an exact read and somehow its always AK. Its a little puzzling. He could likely have planned to rip it in on a number of river cards and has been floating you the entire way.

From villains perspective, trip 8s or a fullhouse plays the same on the river. He has you isolated to one pair in his mind. The 8 isn't the scare card he probably wanted but he is using it none the less.

Agreed with others to go bigger on turn. $75 seems right.

On river, V should probably perceive that trip 8s is the nuts here given your bet sizing on the turn, so I don't think he's polarized to just full house or air. However, all the draws whiffed here. Against most Vs, an overbet is just very, very strong, and this would be a fold. If you've seen him overbet other times though, I'd treat it more like just a random bet and probably call. If he has trip 8s, he gets my money and I kick myself for not betting turn bigger.

I agree I should have bet bigger on the turn. Does a random 8 really call down to river though?

what is with that turn bet? bet 100 on the turn


as played. fold. This is not a bluff. He has an 8.

I ended up calling and he said good call. So I flip over my cards and I'm good. He was sitting to my left so I saw him looking at his cards and I saw a 6 of clubs. So possibly had 6 7 of clubs. Still don't know if I made the right move.

I think the call was reasonable though requiring some guts.

The fact you bet so small on turn combined with V's instant overbet on the river should make you think he has more than hs usual number of bluffs here. If he had just made trip 8s he'd have to give at least a little thought to how best to get value out of you. Therefore he could only be planning the quick overbet with slow played 2pair or sets (unlikely) or he was planning a big bluff if he missed a draw.

The fact he has showed up without the goods after overbeting before shows he has some reasonable % bluffs in general.

Put the two together and it's as good a spot as any to make a big call.

Would it have made a difference if I made the turn say 75 to 100 and he called and shipped river? Or was he just sensing weakness with my turn sizing? I guess I just didn't want to bloat the pot in case the draws hit. I know it's wrong thinking but I was running bad on suck outs in an earlier session that day and I guess it affected my play. Playing a little passive thinking it was pot control

Give the description of V, absolutely. 1, He's gambly, and he could hit two pair or another 8. 2, He's bluffy, and he's got a ton of "bluff outs." If either draw comes in, he'd likely think he could take the pot away from you on the river.

Eights could be in his range. So could worse Ks thinking the same things. So could the actual draws, so calling is definitely correct, but if you'd lost to an eight it would not have surprised me much. Certainly not as much as a boat taking that line.

Charge the draws while they are behind. They sure aren't going to pay off a river value bet when they miss. As for whether he sensed weakness, I suspect so. I would. I might well have called with 8x myself for the reasons enumerated above.