Table just opened about an hour ago, we have limited history with villain, but no encounters during this session. Max buyins are $1k, but very few actually buy-in full at the start, so we elect to sit with $750.

Hero (UTG) $800: Playing pretty snug so far; nitty oop, and less active than normal ip. Not the greatest seat draw, as I have two solid villains (including villain in this hand) to my direct left. Coupled with that I have been card-normal so far, so haven't gotten involved as much as I normally would. Probably considered as abc-type by villain in question based on our short history together.

Villain (MP) $650: Well known MTT pro, one of the better players to come out of my hometown. Also playing pretty snug so far, but it's only been an hour. Can play a mix of different styles but generally speaking is pretty wide ip pre. Known to open/3b light ip. Can get very creative post flop.

OTTH:

Hero looks at AK and opens to $25
Villain in MP flats
Btn flats
Blinds fold

Flop ($85)

K85

Hero bets $55
Villain raises to $165
Btn folds

Hero...?

Will post further action and thoughts later on.

id probably just call, and call down most runouts. i think he is substantially overbluffing here. i think c/jam most turns is also good since his bluffs will have some equity.

I'm almost definitely calling flop with your villain description. Just really doesn't have many raising hands that beat you in range. I don't think sets ever raise much on a board this dry, with a third player in the pot who has yet to act, and he has position on the aggressor.

I'd be CRAI on turn or possibly c/c if he's super aggressive and capable of a 3 street bluff with air

I would call down and expect to see Kx or 67 (and very rarely 58s)

I think villain is polarized to air and sets. He probably puts you on a pretty wide range of pp and Broadway's and sees this as a good place to try to blow you off QQ or KJ.

Re-raising here let's him off the hook to easily. I am inclined to check-call him all the way to value town, if he lets me.

I expect he would bomb a scare card if one comes up, but I don't think the turn will be too scary. River might get tricky though. I see any number of reasons to c/c the turn, one being that if checks behind and bluffs the river, the bet shouldn't be nearly as big as if I bet the turn and get called. No idea if that's good thinking or not.

I'm calling here and probably letting him bluff off his stack to me, or me spewing my stack to him. MTT pro's like to bruff big at cash games for whatever reason. I may even c/r OTT depending on his bet size.

Thanks for the replies guys. My thinking is pretty much in line with everyone.

Hero calls.

I felt like he never has Kx here, unless it is K8s. It's probably mostly a mixture of 88/55/8x/5x/67/97. I am capable of opening TT-QQ/AT+ and cbetting them into two villains, but I feel like he knows I would probably fold a lot of those to a raise, hence his raise.

So, I feel like calling was really my only option here. If I raise it basically turns my hand face up as KK+/AK allowing him to play perfectly against me. In retrospect, I think that even calling gives away a lot about my hand strength, since I normally would not continue with AT-AQ, and would rarely continue with TT-QQ.

I am not totally sure how I am going to react on the turn, but I am basically checking 100% of the time and letting him take the lead. Depending on the turn card and his bet size I can deduce if he has a value hand or is pouncing on the weakness I am (intentionally) showing with 8x/67. There are some turn cards where I might c/shove, but I am essentially going to c/c the majority of the time to keep his bluffs in.

Turn ($415) 3

This is pretty much the best card (with the exception of a small ) we could have asked for. It changes nothing. I am very comfortable c/shoving if he bets anything over half pot, and c/c if he bets small.

Hero checks.
Villain checks.

Well that didn't work out. But, at least now we know we are good 98% of the time, barring a super FPS check-back with a set, which I don't see him doing based on his view of me and the fact that I b/c'd the flop leading him to believe that I have Kx at minimum.

River 5

Hero?

Not sure that I love this card, as 5x is in his range here.

I think I lean towards check call on the river. I don't know what worse hands he can call a river bet with after getting called on the flop C/R. Let him try one more time to steal it, problem is his line looks weak and I'm not sure he ever bluffs missed draws or 1 pair hands on the river. He may bet Kx after being checked to twice though.

I don't think he's going to bluff again. His line would look way to FOS so he should know youre never c/f river.

Bet small and get value from KQ/KJ

+1

I think you can safely value bet the river.

Why aren't we value betting the turn? Anything we were losing to on the flop we are losing to even worse, 58, 55. So if we are going to bet the river why aren't we betting the turn for 3 streets of value? Are we afraid of a poor PF call with A5s or 56s? Or is checking after being raised on the flop OOP just a standard safer line to take?

This is a bet fold right DUKE? What sizing would you go with on the river?

I think you can safely lead the river for about 1/2 pot and fold to a raise of any significance.

Thanks again fellas.

This is where my thinking differs; I really was not sure whether betting turn or river were the right idea, which is why I posted the hand.

As I said I wasn't in love with the 5 river, because it really changes nothing other than the times he has 5x which he IS capable of having given his line.

My thinking on the river was that this wasn't the greatest spot to b/f because aside from 5x, he also has a ton of 8x/67 in his range. Along with that my hand really looks like Kx based on my line, so betting again allows him to play perfectly against me; he'll muck all the 8x/67 hands and will shove with 5x. But, if i check, he *may* attempt a steal?

So...

Hero checks.
Villain bets $250.

Pot is now $665.

Grunch.

Hero calls.
Villain shows 56.

I'm not really sweating it too much, but was and still am sort of unsure of whether I could have played this any differently?

Villain turned his hand into a bluff, and you called his bluff.

Then he got lucky.
It happens.

Nice hand, well played.

I like the check/call on the river. After under-repping your hand I think a river bet gets raised a lot. I have every intention of calling the river but don't want to invest a ton of money in this 1p hand.

Sorry I read that incorrectly I thought the board paired on the turn. But still, my question remains - why aren't we betting the turn here on an innocuous 3? Does a flop raise automatically put us into defensive mode with TPTK on an uncoordinated board?

It does after we get raised of the flop.

The flop raise does not put us into defense mode nor is that the way that I approached the turn or river; rather because his range is super limited and heavily weighted towards bluffs/semibluffs on this kind of board I really don't see why I would lead into him as opposed to letting him continue bluffing.

Which is exactly the reason I posted the hand, because I don't see a reason to do so.

Perhaps you can elaborate?