Lmao. Because math and/or GTO application to close spots is MUBSY. Or even pure straight up facts/concepts that you cant wrap your head around. Okay.

Betting river is also spew. But you dont want to give off the impression you’re a MUBSY nit. I get it.

Agreed.

I may be overreaching here, but a gazillion hours of LFR informs me that Vs generally do not take this turn line at this sizing for value because it is not a natural/ideal way to get value from hero’s perceived range when compared to check raising. It’s a call and the river is a pretty decent check back hand outside of some serious fish stomping exploit that would mandate a bet. Doesn’t seem to apply here.

Hm okay, I will take into consideration what you guys are saying since you obviously have more experience and a lot more first-hand accounts of similar situations lol. I still dont think we have like say 50% equity vs his range or something ridiculous like that ott, and that this is a snap call though. But yeah getting 3:1 and needing 25% equity you guys are probably right that this is a call vs a splashy whale

I won't deny that GTO has its place, but making the highest EV play is usually far from GTO against these live players.

Instead of being stubborn, try being open to learning how to maximize your EV at LLSNL.

Again, I would never be betting OTR against a solid thinking player, but you will be shocked how often you get called down by worse 1p hands on this runout.

I didnt say to play GTO at any point. Im saying this is a close spot and im using a GTO application to justify a fold in a spot where we have a close decision.

Yeah, says the one who was being extremely stubborn about lol opening 22 from UTG and had to resort to ad hominems because he couldnt refute anything I said. I mean, yeah keep maximizing your EV/high winrate opening 22 from UTG. LOL

And i am open-minded. I just tend to especially not be when posters just launch personal attacks at me rather than explaining their why their POV may be more +EV, and especially resort to ad hominems when they cant refute any of my math/logic/explanations

He certainly has every flush draw in his flop calling range - no disagreement there. But his flop calling range is massive. My ballpark would be over four hundred combos. If I counted correctly, there are exactly one hundred combos in the deck that beat us ott, and he probably doesn't have Q7o or Q6o with full weight.

For sure not a snap by any means, just too much equity to release against block bet sizing and all the advantages in our favor heading to the river.

...and yea his range is massive and includes so many pair+spade type hands monkeying around, some legitamate worse for value, and a whole lot of ‘hands that ck call anyway so might as well lead’ stuff.

This is where I'm at too. Combine that with the insane image V has, and I just can't fold OTT when V splash bets a random pile of chips that pretty much equates to a blocking bet. If this V is as LAGtard as advertised, then I think he can absolutely use the turn as a scare card in an attempt to make hero fold 1p hands. I'm not first pumping, but I'm calling turn IP and evaluating river.

OTR, kinda weird IMO. Rivering nut-trips actually shouldn't change much, though we do now beat 76, and I guess the very unlikely Q7/Q6 if he can be that insanely wide. This may be super nitty, but I'm just tabling my hand here. I think hero's hand is somewhat faceup, and once a spewy LAG gives up on this river I think hero only gets value from the case A. I guess it comes down to how often V decides to pot control with Ax versus how often he's trying to take another non-standard line by trying to induce with flushes and boats. All the time he shows up with random crap and missed draws should be irrelevant, as he can't call a river bet with those hands anyways. I just think there are a lot more combos of flushes/boats than there are Ax holdings.

Thanks for the correction.

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I always miss details. Always. Missed the word "maniac" in the title. V literally tossed out some chips amounting to 155$.

As described, sounds like V did it pretty quickly when the TURN card fell.

Against a maniac that tosses chips out without thinking much hm..

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Would it be wrong to fold here when we are deep against all player types, even nits? I'm more prone to giving nits credit for leading TURN even though it's for 1/2 pot. If the nit have a big hand OTF, i feel he would more likely check raise or lead flop himself

Really? The bulk of our value range OTT is AK, with some AA/QQ/AQs sprinkled in.

Thanks for pointing that out

Thats the plenty of hands I meant without much thought though previously I mention that AK is a value hand that beats a bunch of V's weak range, and that the flush range is just a "small fraction" of V's entire flop cbet calling range, which I still stand by, epecially when we set ourselves up in such a way preflop where we only 3bet for value against V's VPIP

Minatorr, I understand what you are saying about AK no spade on the turn, but I pretty strongly disagree. QQ/AA/AQ/AK is not our flop betting range against this player type, so AK no spade is really not the bottom of our turn range. We should be 3-betting this player pretty wide pre-flop, at least as wide as our normal UTG+1 opening range. I don't have a flatting range as any hand strong enough to cold call and play multi-way OOP after everyone else calls behind us is strong enough to 3-bet for value against a 75% range.

When we are making such extreme adjustments to extremely unbalanced opponents, it doesn't seem right to think about where our hand is in our range. We know what villain's leaks are. He's going to put a lot of money into the pot with weak hands by either calling or betting/raising. We exploit this leak by not folding good hands, even on bad runouts. Villain's betting range is so wide, I would not be mind-blown to see 8c7c on the turn. Villain has no concept of ranges and TPTK is a hand I'm hardly ever folding under any circumstances to someone I regard as a maniac. It also helps that villain can only bet up to $300 on the river, which I'm calling on non-spades.

River is a super clear max-bet.

We have more AA/QQ/AQ here ott (fwiw im also 3b AQo). we also have AKss ans AsKx and AxKs is what i meant

It’s true that a normal cbet range shouldnt be just AQ/AA/QQ/AK otf. But here OP bet 83.33% pot otf. Ofc if we bet 33% or even HP our range should be much wider. Do you think OP’s betting this large with KK/JJ/1010? Or even say A5s?

But okay I get what you guys are saying and will try to apply it more when I play live

I think the consensus here is to mostly check river, what hands are you getting value from besides Ax? Do you think he calls 7x, 88-JJ, and Qx at a good enough frequency to justify betting? Or do you think he neve checks a flush/boat otr

I think the key fact in this hand is the previous history. This villain has folded to hero's preflop 3bet once before and a second time hero 3bet, the villain called and folded to a flop cbet.

We can exploit bad players by folding just as well as by calling. I don't think a turn fold is a mistake.

As played on the turn, betting on the river is bad. Our hand is not that great, and the river card, as has been pointed out, does not improve our relative hand strength very much at all.

Check back on the river and see who wins.

I continue to think flatting turn is good despite results. I'm not folding a hand this good getting 3/1 on a single bet from a guy who plays virtually ATC. Granted he knows where the fold button is, but I don't think it follows from that that he only bets 2 pair+ (whereas I think it does follow from that that we shouldn't bet river).

Based on his actions on the river, he doesn't seem like a true maniac. A maniac would snap call, pound the table, high 5 the dealer with a **** eating grin if he was holding a flush. He would probably bet it on the river as well. I never see maniacs get MUBsy. I think hero may have the wrong read on his opponent that lead to a spew. Even though his Vpip is high, there was nothing suggesting that he spews post flop.

+1 to this. Seems like heros playerprofile/read was off here with results in hand due to villain hem and hawed sigh calling with a flush.

Don't think OP ever suggested he was a maniac, that's a thread invention.

Really? The threads headline says "AKo vs maniac"

OK missed that. Nothing about it in the actual OP.

You are deep against an aggrotard so why not 3bet bigger pre for value?

Against that sizing and a Villain this wide and unpredictable I would be calling to evaluate river.

I think 200+ is about where I start folding AK no spade

LOL

Tried to clarify that while super loose preflop I don’t and didn’t think he’s an unthinking idiot. He plays a lot and is agro in small pots but he’s not 4bet piling with trash or anything like that. Only had 2 hours of sample but I certainly wasn’t thinking of him as a true gambooly maniac fish. To the extent that you can be a thinking player with pfr of 75% that’s how I describe him. Also might be explot against other fish at the table and he tightens up a bit against me. It’s hard to be super specific with a read through forum post.

Maybe hyperlag was the better term but he literally was raising almost every hand preflop. Also he shows up with 85s defending to a 3 bet isn’t that a pretty maniacal play? Regardless I do think a turn fold might be correct because I just don’t think he’s floating my huge flop bet with air and when he leads the turn he has so many flushes and probably not much else. Can’t be too bad given price and how wide he is pre but idk