This hand is from a 1/3 game with a 300$ max bet limit

Villain (1kish effective) He's 30s looking has tats on fingers carries a satchel smokes a lot of weed definitely a weird dude. He's also a reg at the casino and all the dealers know him by name. I've never played with him before but have seen him playing the 2/5 game.

Came to the table with like 100$ went all in preflop with K3s and won it has since run his stack up to 1k+ vpiping probably 90% of hands raising at least 75%. I have 3 bet him a couple times in the last hour with 99 and TT he folded pre once and folded to a cbet in the other hand

OTTH: 9 handed villain raises to 20 UTG +2 Hero to 60 next to act with A K V calls

Flop: (120)A Q7 I bet 100 thinking that he is calling wide and he can call any flush draw some gutshots and worse Aces or queens V calls

Turn (320)6 Villain grabs literally a handful of green/red chips from his stack and just tosses them out bet winds up being for 155

Hero?

Seems like a trivial fold you have a ton of better hands to call down with

Got some more info on his postflop game? In particular, I'm wondering whether x/c is a likely line for him with a FD here. Would he not be more likely to lead or x/r?

Call seems rly standard to me getting 3/1, pending more info on what he's like postflop.

Trivial fold? Hmm I wonder what you base your decisions on Minatorr..

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OP mentioned that V's PFR is 75%, so, i assume that V would also call hero's cbet with 75% of their entire range.

OTT we are getting 3:1 while our hand's equity is 75.16%.
Stack is deep af. The TURN lead is for a small amount and the Spade FLUSH is only a small % of V's entire preflop 3bet calling range[READ : WIDE] Since V is a bad player, I'll be expecting V to bet TURN because he doesn't know how to react if hero bets again on the flush TURN, so, he might as well lead out on his own.

We have position on V, so, just flat and reevaluate OTR.

Think about what range of hands OP cbets flop for 83.33%. Then compare his hand ott with that range and see how far it is in his hand distribution. This is literally the WORST hand OP will ever have ott after betting that large otf.

Let’s give OP standard 3b range of 1010+ (1010 combos not 100% freq but obv JJ+ 100%), AQo+. Hero is not cbetting 83.33% pot with anything but AQ,QQ,AK, AA. So ott we still have that range. We are obv defending QQ/AA and probably AQ. So AK is the lowest part of our range. Here op doesnt even have a spade so it’s literally OP’s bottom what. 8% range ott? You basically have 0 folds ott here if you’re calling AK.

Most of your assumptions arent true. Even an idiot isnt defending 75% of his range otf vs an 83% psb cbet

And how does opening 75% equate to him defending 75% of his range otf? Makes no sense. There isnt a positive correlation between opening range and flop defending range after being 3b.

If he really opens 75% and doesnt fold much vs 3b, he should have a lot of flushes here ott. He’s not folding any FD otf

Think Chris is right here, pretty standard call unless V would never donk a flush draw. Also important to note the bet cap.

Agree with Minotaurr but i cawl this fish and see what he does on river because hes too aggro he will have enough hands like KQ with a spade.

I haven’t seen that many showdowns he’s been mostly the aggressor and running down the passive fish with aggression. I also think Minotaur makes a good point that I actually am at the bottom of my range here.

I will add that I don’t think he’s an idiot I think he’s a thinking player who just lags it up and knows he can completely run over the passive fish in the room. As to how he would play one spade hands here I actually feel like he has been playing more straightforward against me and giving me some respect as the other big stack at the table. Intuition says he would be more likely to check call a hand like kq with a spade.

As played I felt like it was worth it to at least see a river. Felt like he was the type to also have some spazz seeing the flush draw get there and just betting it to get me to fold.

So I call and we see the river (630) A

V checks hero?

Most good lags simply get into a pot with their piece of cheese (typically for far too much preflop) and then hope their image gets some idiot to stack off / put in huge chunks of money postflop with hands as worthless / face up as TPTKnodraw against their better ones.

ETA: Our hand hasn't really improved that much on the river (realistically mostly just moving ahead of 76). If he's on a busted draw, he's either going to check / giveup or check/shove; are we prepared to call a shove? It's possible he is legit worried about us boating up and counterfeiting his flush, although I'm also not convinced he's going to check/fold. Does he really play a worse Ax this way on the turn (really the only hand we're missing value from if we don't bet)? I think I would mostly check back here. But I suck at deepstack.

GimoG

I like this too. Fifth street chicken time as your call OTT will look super strong to V so he would be crazy to bluff river so you might either (1) get a showdown or (2) get a chance to value bet thinly if he checks to you OTR.

Check back. For him to call river with worse he'd need to have a worse ace or maybe a good queen, but x/c flop then lead flush turn for halfpot would be a weird line with those hands. Of the hands that will call, I think it's more likely he has a flush that got cold feet when the ace paired. Also, getting checkraised would be very unpleasant.

“I don’t think he’s an idiot”

Hmm.

1. Buys in short
2. Goes all in pre w K3s
3. Vpip 90%
4. Pfr 75%

My read is... idiot

HAHA fair enough Idk he just seemed like he played for a living because hes always there, but he is definitely an aggrotard. I guess I meant that while he is dumbly loose preflop seemed like he had some sense for reasonable postflop play given the absurdly wide ranges he plays to get there in the first place.

yeah if this is my read, I'm calling here.

he just throws it in random chips when the flush comes? my read is he doesn't have it. He went all in with K3 so hes one of those players that bet big to look Big.

As played, I would snap call and see if my hand improves on the river.

+2 lol.

Thats my point. He has a VPIP of 90+%.

And let's not get married to the 75% flop defend % i mentioned, because even if V calls preflop 3bet with a lower %, and even lower % OTF, there are still lots of suited connectors that are NOT flush draws that has connected with the board in some way such as pair+BD FLUSH DRAW, K,Q,J BD FLUSH DRAWS, weaker top pairs that doesn't know what he should do or am probing here with TP, or even MP, that would fold if we raise etc OTT

Against a IDIOT, there is NO NEED to be frequency accurate(to the tee)

As well, why would you want to fold your value hands just to fit some frequency that doesn't matter here?

As well Minatorr, are yo saying that you would ALWAYS FOLD to a 1/2 bet OTT when the flush card falls?

We are deep, and if you are not calling here, I don't know what kind of stack size you would need, to make the call here.

Let you into something, we are IP as well.

Just bc he’s an idiot doesn’t mean this is a snap call.. based on description, this idiot has only been the aggressor when in the lead. Golfing to a 3b and a cbet in the past. Calling a pre 3b, a flop cbet, then donking into a scary board isn’t consistent. Not saying fold. But ...

Agree with what you said, that's why we
Hey just a question, do you think we need to be frequency accurate here? I mean, our 3bet preflop in BB range is narrow af. Even though AK is in hero's bottom range OTT, do we have the need to fold it just to fit the frequencies here? I mean, V can have weaker hands here as well because the TURN lead is only for half pot.
What's your thoughts?

I was mp next to act not in the B.B. when I 3bet

My 3 bet range is definitely lighter than normal here as well to isolate v. It’s probably like 99+ aq+ with some a5s and suited connectors some of the time.

Sissy makes a great point that he has respected my raises previously and after calling a cbet and dinking turn he’s no longer spewing with 60% of hands

On a second thought, I think Minatorr is right.

We do have plenty of better hands to call down with, that makes folding OTT in this situation fine, too.

I never said anything about folding OP’s whole range. I said AA/AQ/AK/QQ is hero’s entire cbet range and that we are defending AA/QQ/AQ obv. Then we can also defend AK with a spade and obv AKss. Im defending like 85-90%+ of Hero’s range here.

I mean yeah, this is a close decision. It’s not a snap fold. But when you have a close decision and you are at the bottom of your range, it is completely fine and never a big mistake to just let it go. Whereas if your assumptions or “reads” are wrong and you just call the bottom of your ranges in spots like these all the time or a lot of times, you can get into very -EV territory very quickly

+1.

What's more is this is a 1/3 game, we fold AK here but will still get paid off when we have better hands the next time

Thanks for bringing renewed perspective Minatorr

Great day ahead to you and all

Min, you're wrong here. It's hard to wrap one's head around what 90/75 stats mean, but his range on the flop is literally any Ace, most Queens, some 7's, any gutshot, and any two spades. There are 36 combos of top pair with one spade in his range, plus a host of other hands he can donk (e.g. JsTc). Folding to less than halfpot in position is a crime here.

Yeah, his flop calling range is fairly wide. But his turn donking range on a flush completing card isnt the same as his flop calling range. It is definitely condensed to some extent, although hard to quantify. Vs his value range we are drawing dead, and even his pair + FD have good equity. Id imagine he has almost every combo of flush here since he VPIP so much, as to what % he donks them ott with is unknown.

I just think if are wrong with our reads on him vs his overall range, it can end up being a decently -EV call whereas if we are correct it’s a marginally +EV call at best. Plus there is some non zero % chance he will go balls to the wall with his bluff on some runouts otr and we fold the best hand if he really is a maniac. Or he can suck out with a spade if he donked a pair + fd. Or have us drawing dead. I think it being a crime to fold vs his turn bet is a little much.

Hmmm I'm noticing a pattern here....

A trivial fold?? So MUBSY, especially when we don't have the A and that small donk bet sizing.

This is a call and likely going for river value when he checks to us.