$1/2 9 handed.

V BB ($550) younger brownish fellow. Probably late 20’s. It’s my first orbit, haven’t seen him do anything noteworthy.

H UTG ($260) sexy MAWG. Have called two preflop raises with low/mid PP’s and folded whiffed flops in my 1 orbit. No idea what V thinks of H.

OTTH
H gets AKo and raises $10. Maybe a little light but always happy for action and maybe some squeezing.

3 callers before it gets back to V in the BB who makes it $75. H?

I block AA & KK obviously and should have some FE on a shove. Really a spot where all 3 plays may be reasonable. H has like -$10 EV against exactly Q’s. If V folds any AK, JJ type hands it’s way +EV. Obviously if H has AA/KK I’m screwed. I have no bankroll or tilt issues. What is max EV play here can unknown?

I think you have to stuff it. He could be trying to pick up the dead money.

Fold. Zero info. Next hand. Lol at $75, good for him, make sure he wins the stone min.

$75 feels like perfectly normal raise size from a UTG open to $10 and 3 callers when you're OOP. Maybe $65 but $75 isn't crazy.

This is really close between a stuff and a fold for me. Might even come down to lollivereads.

^This

At this same time, what's going to happen is you flop a K and he starts betting down 3 streets? Going to call his shove on the river?

So its 115 and 65 for you to call. In position. Even if he has a super tight range of AA, KK, QQ and AK it's a mandatory call. If you were OOP you can 4 bet to 200ish and fold to a jam. With the players behind a 4 bet is probably better anyway. If you flop top pair on a dry board then call down. Whatever. Most of these situations come down to bankroll. People that aren't properly rolled dont take their equity in these spots. Sometimes you lose. Doeant change your equity. Whatever. Doesnt matter. Nothings real.

This could be a very easy shove and a very easy fold, IT depends on the Info we have on villain. Without Info i would Just Muck IT as Other have already Said.

Calling pre is by far the worst Option.

Don’t think we have fold equity. That said it’s a pretty sweet squeeze spot for him so I shrug and sloppily pile in my stack

Is $10 dollars the normal open size in this game? If its smaller than normal, from V's perspective he may see it as weak and think its a super juicy squeeze spot.

I'd probably jam but only because I've seen players fold JJ, QQ and AKo face up to 4! jams in my player pool. They hero fold and say something like "nobody jams that much pre with anything but KK and AA at 1/2."

With no roll or tilt issues like you say, ship it. (but I'm probably biased by my pool)

Fwiw this is going to depend on which room I'm in that I play in with no reads I think. For me it really is that close and player pool will have an affect.

My win rate I'm sure it much lower than others here though, so ymmv.

We only have 260 total though....

Pot will be $180 on the flop and we'll have about $185 behind. You folding?

Yeah I was thinking the same thing, a lot of people's go to 3! squeeze sizing in live poker is 3.5x +1x per caller and +1x more if oop. Seems super standard for the situation.

Normal is probably $10-15, with $12 being about average. I did come in a little small thinking it may get read as weakness.

Because of the callers/dead money in between i probably do the same thing- sigh inside and shipping allin. Its just too good of a squeeze spot for anyone so i dont feel like raise/folding a hand as strong as AK in this kind of spot.

That being said, i dont think its a big mistake at all to just fold this if you are on a short bankroll for some reason.

That makes me pretty comfortable with shipping, wish we had more reads but it is what it is.

I’m all in

I'm somewhat ambivalent to folding or jamming as well.

I don't understand criticism of V's 3-bet sizing OOP though. I think it's perfect.

Our strategy is so bad if we fold here

Nothing wrong with the 3! / squeeze sizing. I may go slightly less, but it's fine as is.

Based on info available, ship it.

Appreciate all the discussion.


Results: I figured V’s squeeze / fold range had some size to it including JJ, some TT or QQ maybe, AQs, AKo, and so H stuffed it in. V goes in the tank, rolls over QQ, tanks some more and eventually calls. Not sure if I ranged his squeeze probably or not but felt good that I think I was right on with his squeeze / call range.

Hand was played fine by H and V IMO.

The fact he tanked and showed his cards and tanked and called is a pretty good indication that this was the stone bottom of his squeeze range. You're just praying you get to flip early in the session for a BI with zero info. Again, I hate this unless you just have no edge and want to play tournament style against ******s.

Do you think a shove here is +EV overall or -EV?

Why is that a good indicator that it’s the bottom of his range?

Wouldn’t it be a good indicator that it’s on the cusp? (IE he has some snap calls, some snap folds, and some close decisions?)