Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 22
Hero - mid twenties tag, slightly losing image. ($270)
Villain - MAWG, pretty fit or fold, only seen him 3bet once in last 3 hrs, not a great player probably break even but not terrible, plays relatively tight and haven't seen him get out of line. However he just got sucked out on 2 hands prior and seemed to be a littl tilted. ($266)
OTTH
One limper, bad player who opens too much (35/28)makes it $10, really bad player calls $10...he is playing (50/10)...folds to hero on button with AKo.
Hero makes it $45....im well ahead of both their ranges and I don't mind 3betting for value or taking down 25 dead money.
Villain to my immediate left ships instantly without counting his stack. Folds back to hero. It is $266 total aka $221 to call to win $340.
Hero?
At first I thought this was an insta fold. Given player type/profile this is always AA or KK. However, getting about 1.5 to 1....I need 40 % equity to profitably call. Because he is slightly tilted I think his range is a bit wider than normal here. JJ -AA plus AK. I have AK which partially blocks aces and Kings. Also , from a physical read standpoint he didn't look comfortable and insta jammed do fast without count his stack. I feel like if he had aces or kings he would have taken more time and counted before shoving and a lot of time he would size it less because he doesn't want me to fold. I made a live read here and put him soley on JJ and QQ maybe AK and therefore gettin1.5 to 1 I felt I had enough equity to call. I realize this is incredibly high variance and a very thin call however, I would like people's opinions on the physical read and my overall thought process. I really brlieved I was flipping and thought it was even possible he could be tilt -shoving like AQ suited as well a small percentage. Opinions and thoughts would be appreciated as well as similar experiences.thanks