Villain (EP): 30s white guy, unknown ($300)
Hero (HJ): mid 20s Asian, TAG winning image ($1300)

Villain limps, a couple more limp, hero limps behind with 44. Ed Miller would probably advise raising instead of splitting my range but there are a total of 0 good players at this table so it doesn't matter.

BTN limps, SB completes and BB checks.

Flop: J64 ($13)

Checked to hero who bets $10. Villain calls one more call.

Turn: 7 ($40)

Checked to hero. Hero bets $35. Villain calls other guy folds.

River: 5 ($110)

Checked to hero.

How thin can we go here? Not worried at all about BD flush or 3. Worried about an 8. If he had 66 or 77 he would've announced it on the turn (if he even sees it with 77). He didn't donk river but that could be due to fearing the flush. He might donk small with an 8 though. But on second though, how many 8s does he even have other than 87? Doubt he calls 86 in such a multiway pot. J8s if anything. Can we bet $55 or $60 to get called by a jack here? Can we even go as thin as 75s?

Thin value betting comes down to being ahead more than 50% of the villain's calling range. You need to come up with the range.

He's x/c two streets of action. If he has a straight, most likely he got it on the the turn, not river. Most players would raise by the turn with a better set. Most players would have bet out with TP on the flop. So the reality is we can't thin value bet this because there is a a lot of uncertainty with his range. So I'd check back and see what he had. Most likely if you won he wouldn't have called on the river. If you lost, you didn't want to bet.

very unlikely we are beat here & we get called very light when we bet 3 streets on boards like this.

b/f for value targeting his Jx and 75 combos - agree that $55-65 is good sizing.

Bet $15 on flop. No one cares that it's an overbet in a limped pot, and the pot geometry of getting another $10-15 into the pot on the flop is huge.

I think you can still get value on the river from Jx and random two pair in a limped pot. I bet $70 and fold to a raise. I probably would check with two pair, maybe I'd value bet J7.

Grunch:

I think V has a J here a large % of the time. Most of those JX are not J8s. Bad players love to limp offsuit broadways so he can have KJ-J9 and call all of them on the river for a $45 bet despite the four straight. I wouldn't go much higher as I think many players will just see the 4 straight and be scared off without really thinking about what you have.

75s is such a small part of his range it isn't worth going bigger to capture the few combos of extra value IMO. Any other 2pair wold have caused V to give more action earlier in the hand. I'd just be aiming for value from one pair JX.

If V raises river I'd fold. No-one in my game x/r this river without the straight.

OK I now read other replies and Venice10 makes a valid point that many players would bet out JX on the flop. In my game many would also check flop vs so many players, particularly with a weak JX which is where I was coming from.

Still, sticking with the idea V would bet out at least his JT+ the question is what does V take this line with?

J9 J8s J5s J3s J2s 75s 65s 54s 43s A6cc A4cc

Combos we beat: 25
Combos we lose to: 11

So think we can still bet river but it is much closer. I still go with a smallish bet, maybe even same as turn, $35 to keep all his weak JX in. There's a danger V mistakenly raises his J5s 75s 54s 65s and we fold the best hand but I think most players are too afraid of the 4 straight and too passive generally to do this.

I enjoyed this assessment of your own play

Not forking your range isn't the only reason to raise preflop here. I'd raise this unless there was a habitual limp raiser ahead of me. I'm raising so I have a chance to steal the pot pre, a chance to steal the pot heads up in position postflop and for a shot to gii and double up when I flop a set.

I'll limp along sometimes when I'm feeling lazy and lacking in machismo

It is a 7 way limped pot so who really knows what he has. Could have 2pair, which he likely calls. Could have a flush, which he would raise your bet. Could have a weird straight which he calls. Seems a little too thin for me.

Overlimping is fine here imo.

Prob is we don't have a sense of how sticky villain is. We need to have his Jx call and on this runout he could get cold feet.

I'm cool with b/f 1/3 pot.


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