Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicagodude
I believe that it's likelihood is great given the action. I do not think 1 of 4 of A and 1 of 4 of K means that you're blocking anything or seriously decreasing the likelihood given the action. I know this means I'm a neanderthal and not in keeping with the views of the day. I respectfully disagree.
I don't think you're listening to me. I didn't say that the likelihood was low that we'll run into AA/KK. I also didn't attack you in any way so I don't know why you're talking about Neanderthals.
You shouldn't ignore the math involved. You're only hurting your own development as a player.
It is a fact that us having an AK in our hand removes half of the AA/KK combos in his range. Normally there are 4C2 = 6 combos each. With only 3 As/Ks left, there are now only 3C2 = 3 combos each of AA/KK.
If we believe villain is raising a range of {QQ+,AK}, he has 6 combos of QQ, 3 KK, 3 AA and 9 AK. He only has AA/KK 40% of the time and our equity is 41.9%.
If we believe villain is raising {QQ+}, but only raising QQ 1/3 time, he has 2 combos of QQ, 3 KK and 3 AA. He has AA/KK 75% of the time and we have 28.9% equity. AA/KK is actually quite likely here despite being blocked because a large portion of his range is AA/KK in the first place.
If you don't believe in blockers or card removal, then you are going to misjudge the frequency villain is going to show up with certain hands. You won't be able to do equity calculations correctly.
You also won't be able to correctly judge your own equity in a pot. For example, ignoring card removal, if you have a flush draw on the turn, you are looking for another card of your suit, and there are four suits, so the probability of hitting your flush is 25%. This is much different than the true probability of 9/46 = 19.6%.
I would assume that you don't agree that the probability of hitting a flush draw on one street is 25%. This is the same concept you are arguing against. Blockers are just referring to card removal.