1/2 at MD live.

Villain is an older reg; for the most part tight / nit image. Seen him play two hands of note. Hand 1 vs me. Villain raised CO, I 3bet KKs from the Button, villain called. I checked back 10, 9, 7 rainbow flop and called turn and river bets from villain and was good vs villains AK. Hand 2 Villain ch/r flop, and shoved turn with nut str8 vs another older nit.

My image- mostly tight, doubled early with set calling 3 streets including shove on river vs different villain who did not show. Had one hand vs villain as described above, but card dead for sometime.

Stacks
Hero- $500
Villain- $195

Hero opens AKss from mp to $15. Villain calls SB.

Flop ($32)- A, 10, 6 with two clubs
Villain checks, hero bets $22, villain raises to $50, Hero calls

Turn ($132)- Jh
Villain shoves after about 5s for $130, hero calls

Thoughts?

Fold. Don't think he's ever shoving for pot here with less than 2p.

+1

You are almost never good here.

You could even fold flop after villain raises tbh.

Man... folding the flop seems so nitty to me. What type of flop are we looking for with AK against a short stack?

If he had $195, he wasn't short. And he is not shoving something worse than 2p imo, unless he is a maniac.

Is the Ace a club?

If it isn't, I'm not folding.

If it is, then I probably fold.

It's probably 2p, maybe a set. Definitely fold turn. I'd probably fold flop.

Tough hand. He's capable of bluffing river but this particular betting pattern is his "nut" pattern, isn't it. But who knows what he thinks is the nuts.

There are three types of hands that make sense with this line.
1. AT, 66
2. AJ,AQ,AK
3. Axcc, KQcc

I think AA is very unlikely, TT somewhat unlikely, other KQ combos very unlikely. Pure bluff extremely unlikely.

This would be a really creative line with any other club draw. Someone that creative is probably smart enough not to try it with someone as tight as you seem tonight.

So. I guess this is where you are going with this, IRTM? If those club draws are in his range, you are probably way ahead. With those stack sizes, yeah I like the call.

Based on reads, surely a fold on flop. I know Danzasmack on an un-named forum says that 100 bb deep or less he never folds top pair with a broadway kicker vs unknown.

This is a highly exploitable situation if Villain knows we will fold here.

This is important.

At the risk of asking a dumb question... why?

If it's not a club, add Axcc to the list of possible combos.

Knew it would be easy... thanks.