Towriteair: my point about V's lack of raising is that he won't have had 90 opportunities to open raise in 3 hours, probably only around 30. My experience of total fish is they have no idea how strong pairs are preflop. They think they need to see the flop and try to make a strong hand like a straight or flush. They are happy calling a raise with AA or limp/calling with KK. They just fundamentally don't get the probability of making different hands and I causes them to do properly weird stuff.

In my experience fish not raising for 3 hours means nothing at all.

A player you know knows how to play not raising for 3 hours means he is card dead or playing nit tight and I'd be rightly more concerned here.

Lol at Guy not opening a single pot for an hour and a half then we give him a utg open / call range including AJ and AT. Seems optimistic.

The % a total fish opener calls a shove is very close to the % of the time he thinks "you're bluffing" which I find, with fish, is a surprisingly high and incorrect % of the time.

I played a girl the other day and she limp called AA and KK UTG and checked them both down against me in case I had a better hand.

Then she raise/called allin with A7o vs my AQs because "I was probably bluffing".

She raised like 5 hands in 15 hours of play over 3 nights.

The Bold: This is true, I did forget about that admittedly. But is UTG+1 V who shoved, is he a try-hard, a rec? I mean personally for 15 BB I've seen TONS of people shove ATC, happy with a lone K or Q or quite honestly simply one of their favorite cards like say the 7 or 9 of spades. Just getting clean before re-loading or going home. If we're going to be doing statistical assumptions, because UTG raised and he never raises it's logical he has an A, because UTG+1 looked at one card it's logical he has an A, and because we have an A we have an A. But poker and it's players aren't always logical, which is why we play and earn money off them.

The Italic: This makes sense, and it's justified, and I agree as a principal as correct. I believe though in this situation I am presented with the unique opportunity of calling as slightly better, and I believe less variance, which I like. However you are denying yourself from extracting more value from sub-Uber hands. Like ATs+ etc, and if it's true this UTG could be playing 92o as you say, which it is, he'll be very inclined to continue OOP with such odds.

FOR RECORD SHOVING IS GOOD, CALL BETTER = my opinion

For those saying call pre. What is your post flop plan? Hope to hit a pair?

If I raise, I prefer to raise the same amount that I would with AA.

We're in middle position, so one factor is how loose the rest of the table is. Sometimes, once the first person calls the short-stacked all-in, several players make loose calls behind because they are aware of the concept of pot odds, but misapply it. I would be more willing to flat if the players behind me are folding QJs no matter what I do.

Your sizing w/ AA?

It is dependent on the rest of the table. I could shove here with AA because I know there are players who will put me on AA and call with any pocket pair. Then, I might mostly flat with AK. I could raise the minimum because some players will incorrectly think they have the correct odds to try and stack me.

I may like to make it easy for everyone and raise a relatively easy amount, two stacks of red for $200 or maybe $175 using green chips. Other times, I may like to bet a quirky amount like $195 or $215, which levels opponents into folding hands they should call with if they knew what I had or calling with hands they shouldn't.

The correct strategy is probably to both flat and raise with AA and AK, with the ratio of AA/AK for both plays changing depending on how loose the rest of the table is and how tight UTG's range is. I couldn't even begin to quantify what those ratios should be.

I play with a lot of regs and a lot of them sort of understand that no matter how I play it, I generally have a tight range that includes AA, whether I call, raise small, or raise big.

I know that I am likely to showdown my hand here, so a hand like this is where I am very conscious of how the table reacts to however I play it and I am constantly thinking about ways I can use this hand to set my opponents up to misread my holdings on future hands.

First element of the plan is to see what everyone else does, namely original opener UTG, if he reshoves or 4! I can fold contentedly. If he calls, I can most likely remove AA from range; which is extremely important in this situation. 65%+ I can remove KK, also very important.

If no one else calls, which is actually pretty likely. Ta da, same results if no one called shove.

If one person calls, say UTG since most likely. I will check back all flops I miss, because he will almost certainly check, and only bet if he improves. This is meta-psychology based upon what I feel most loose-passive fish do post-flop in a short-stack PF shove called by two others. Let's say he has QQ/JJ, which is likely given our blockers and his call. He will not bet usually on board of undercards, why? He's loose-passive and unimproved, and someone already all in, he's much more likely to call then bet; unlikely to donk. Flops I hit I bet, Pair or better I bet. Let's say he has QQ. Flop comes two unders and K I bet and he will call 50/50. If I let him call and he calls with A9s+, ATo+, KQs, 88+ my range crushes him and I can extract value Post, but be at little risk because 1) He will not bet unless he likes his IMPROVED hand, which depending on texture I can evaluate if I'm crushing or not. 2) If texture is not favorable to me and HE SHOWS INTEREST (which is undue for such a player) I can safely get away from hand with 15BB loss.

Maximize gains, Minimize losses. This is not online poker, where I need to squeeze to the gills margins. This is 1/2 Live with a reputed fish. I can take these lines, because they are more niche profitable.


What needs to be stated at this point is HOW MUCH MY ENTIRE OPINION rests on two things, One I'm effectively the middle person to act (if he raises/shoves PF). Two, and more importantly, is the description of UTG villain, if I take the description literal --which is what I should do based upon the fact this is ultimately a forum of theoretical discourse, I'm not in the hand, I'm playing the hand correctly based on data points-- then this description warrants such play as I have advocated.

I dont think I would fold AKs after investing 75 pre. Imo shove pre is correct game here.

So your plan is to call $75 and fold to a preflop shove. Then if you make it through that gate, your plan is to give up 70% of the time assuming that the 30% you do hit you'll have the best hand.



That sir, is a God awful plan.

I had a hand almost just like this one about an hour before this one (my AK wasnt suited) and I reraised to $200 and went heads up with the short stack who had JJ.

This time, the UTG $15 raise threw me off and I just flatted the $75. UTG called also.

We checked it down to the river on a 942J6 board. UTG won with AJs. The short stack had A7. Clearly I should reraised preflop.

I didn't re-read my post. In a vacuum, probably. In this specific situation, it game down to how you see UTG range/betting tendencies.

You're also not taking what I'm saying into factor, or did and completely trivialize it. (I like math, but reads are there to thwart math). It is very very likely I realize 4 cards 'for free', probably 5. You should know that if you play LLSNL and your game is anything like mine. Giving up is more like 62/38, the 62 of which he is betting which is almost never happening unless he really really really likes his hand.

Also I don't think I said I'm folding to a PF shove, I'm doing so contentedly if I do. The deviation I'm most proposing that would be against Standard and I'm guessing your quib is giving up flops. But as I have already outlined, I have a reasoned thesis of why I can do this and get away with it.

Once again, I think Shoving PF is fine. But probably not ideal. I'd say I'm probably more inclined to shove with AKo, once again for the reasons I've outlined.



I certainly don't call PF against a good player. I 4!, shove, or fold. I call with AA, KK.

Results oriented.

If you had shoved, he would have folded (most likely.) You woulda won pot against short stack 73?% of the time. A smallish pot.

If you had called and UTG called with AJ you woulda won 70% time checking it down, got away if he bet Jack, and heress the icing you would've Valued to Stacked him if an A had hit, because you called and let him in. Which btw in that simulation Short Stack many times will not have A.


This example -I would think- should give credence to everything I have said.

And what happens if he bets $150 on this flop? I fold the best hand.

He won't (shouldn't) based on description, typical LLSNL loose-passive fish OOP without initiative, and a short-stack all-in. Unless he loves his hand.

Towriteair

Reads don't thwart maths. Reads provide the range estimates that you plug into your calculations which give you your decision.

Garbage in = garbage out.


Now, the reason your plan is poor is because you have over narrowed UTG range to the point you are unduly fearful. You therefore hope to call the short stack shove, gauge hand strength behind you and see whether UTG does have KK+ (he shoves). You then conclude that if UTG calls rather than shoves we're good to profit postflop.

Your blind spot is you haven't evaluated utg's calling range in a way that's consistent with your fear that he's opening very tight. You put him on 88+ AT+ A9s+ KQS. Why? If he's opening so tight we're afraid to shove AKs then why does he have ATo to call the short stack shove with? It makes no sense.

If UTG is opening so tight we are afraid to shove AKs then almost all the hands he flats the short stack shove with are pocket pairs with a small equity edge on our AK. Furthermore they can't pay us off easily when we hit postflop, won't fold easily to our bluffs when we miss (because they'll be over pairs or decent 2nd pairs or sets).

Therefore our hand can't make much money when it hits, can't bluff and will lose when we check it down without hitting.

Add to this the risk that UTG is wider than we think and hits flop with some unpaired hand or elects to bluff at the pot or value/protection bet a pocket pair and we risk mistakes postflop. Then we call a big raise preflop with the best hand and end up folding flop and throwing away our equity. Or we continue flop once we are a dog.

Shoving preflop folds out a lot of hands with significant equity against us and guarantees we see all 5 board cards and thus realise our equity. Also utg is a fish and can easily make a huge calling error preflop with AQ-

FWIW...If I was UTG and raised to $15 with AJs, a short stack shoved for $75 and then MP called the $75....I may very well shove $400 all in with my AJs depending on who the MP caller is. If I know he will fold AKs, Im shoving every time. I know a few guys who will fold AKs there in that spot.

+1 Ragequit. Nice analysis.

Thank you