NWI NL 1/2
Hero is in MP with AK
Hero raises to 12 with $200 total. This is my third hand. The table has a mix of large stacks and 5 of the other players are unknown.
Villain is a good reg. He's also a 2/5 player. He's tricky and very aggressive. 45 yo WG. He's technically "a pro" since poker is how he pays the bills. He has side hustles though too. A good guy. He's on the button and he calls. No callers after that. Villain is at $500 or so.
There's 27 in the pot.
Flop
A 23
Hero leads out for 18
Villain reraises for 70
Hero?????????

AI vs. this opponent with TPTK and 100 bbs effective. Ad is a blocker, a negative but still plenty of FD in his BTN range. Have a few outs vs. 2-pr, 54s would be a cooler, but that is only 4 combos.

Are you willing to lose your buy in with TPTK? If you recognize the player you're up against is stronger than you it's usually best to avoid him.

What are you going to do when he shoves the turn?

Ad is not a good card to have here imo. I'm letting this go as he's repping 3's or the straight and we are no where near committed with $30 in the pot. Pick another spot.

This.

How do we think villain perceives hero?

Ad blocker shouldn’t be relevant here. It’s a “meh” shove

This is a really tough spot. There's a lot in his range here. Sets, straights, flush draws, and top pairs are all in his range. He could be making a move with AQ/AJs type hands. You're slightly ahead (57/43) vs. a range of AK/AQ/AJs/22/33 and all diamond SC's. I'm not sure he plays all those hands as aggressively as he is here. The Ad isn't a great card for you but I wouldn't put a lot of Axdd in his range even if you didn't have it. But it's also not a guarantee he raises AQ here.

I think ripping it in is better than folding here. I think the fact he is raising on the flop discounts the stronger parts of his range a bit (22/33/45s). I shove and ride the variance train.

Yeah, i think "what does he think I have" is the issue in this hand as I think he put me on AK. Villain sees me as being a nittier version of him.

have the Ad blocker is even more of a reason to fold because he cant have it obv

if you had AcKc i would be on board with jamming it in

with a raise like that he is jamming the turn no question

I don't know whether this is right or not. Your game, your villain. But going under the assumption that it's accurate, this is good to know. So I have to ask: does it make him more likely to 'put you on AK' or to pounce on a lot of cbets (per Ed Miller, I think in Playing the Player)?

Does he think you will fold AK here? If yes, jam; if not, fold. Would you jam with AK here or only AA?

For 100bb, I probably just jam, regardless.

Why is villain automatically going to conclude we have AK here? We should be cbetting a ton in this spot.

Yeah I think you're right about concluding we'd cbet because it's a heads up situation that's true. I don't think about Asuit blockers enough. I'm going to start. I appreciate the advice.

A decent villain would probably just flat Adxd here anyway (unless he knew we were nitty enough to fold AK)

I would also add villain’s raise doesn’t make a ton of sense. Our range is stronger on this board and he’s IP, so he should generally just flat his strong hands.

With that said, against an average nit fish, that doesn’t matter. Against a better player, it might.

Either way I’m not folding AK in this spot to this guy.

why would we ever shove flop? so he can fold all his bluffs?

It's likely not a pure bluff, but a semi-bluff. The shove charges FD/44/43s, etc. Can't flat with a 100 bbs starting stack.

For value and for protection (we potentially have some fold equity).

You want to forgo our fold equity, call and give him a chance to hit a flush, two pair or some kind of miracle gutshot?

The good reg is not often doing this as a stone cold bluff with complete air. If we flat, the cat is out of the bag and we give him the chance to use the power of position to play the hand perfectly.

What are you suggesting?
Flat, let a non-diamond peel and donk jam the turn?
Flat, check to him and potentially give him a free card?

The only reason I am not shipping this flop is if I think Villain is bluffing with air and will shut down after I call...that being said he most likely has some equity, so I am comfortable getting all the monies in on the flop.

TBH, seems pretty trivial to me.

I’m okay with getting it in here.

Could have a lot of draws. Kinda sucks WE have the A of diamonds here. Against a very good player out of position honestly I like checking the flop sometimes with a hand like AK but I think betting is the better play with such a draw heavy board

If the board is like Ac 8s 4h I will sometimes check OOP against a solid player who will often try and put pressure on us.

Also it balances our check call range