AK vs. Blind All In+Min-Raise - Page 2 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

Ya it's $18 not $16. Taking out side pot implications.

His calcs are correct. Just represented in way my brain mis interpreted.

I can't find 41% equity vs any range. Also can't find 30% vs any realistic range. Equity run somewhere in the middle.

Definitely not 10% though

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12-23-2018 , 11:35 AM

#28

snowman

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 1,748

Quote:

Originally Posted by wait

Saying fold should lead to a ban troll or not. I feel like some of you have never actually been at a live poker table.

your the biggest troll on here
you never post anything but GII GII GII

degen gamboling is in another forum

try posting there

Quote

12-23-2018 , 11:42 AM

#29

aisrael01

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 415

If you're afraid of getting AK allin preflop with a 70BB stack in a super loose game then you're playing scared money and you shouldn't be playing poker.

Quote:

Originally Posted by snowman

your the biggest troll on here
you never post anything but GII GII GII

degen gamboling is in another forum

try posting there

Quote

12-23-2018 , 11:55 AM

#30

snowman

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 1,748

Quote:

Originally Posted by aisrael01

If you're afraid of getting AK allin preflop with a 70BB stack in a super loose game then you're playing scared money and you shouldn't be playing poker.

never said afraid

pointing out its not a huge edge by any means

like I said if you want to gamble knowing you will lose more than 65% of the time go for it

I prefer to be at 60%+ winning side and there are plenty of spots like that daily

op stated he's playing scared money that's why he didn't chip up

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12-23-2018 , 11:57 AM

#31

MikeStarr

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Quote:

Originally Posted by mikko

Ya it's $18 not $16. Taking out side pot implications.

His calcs are correct. Just represented in way my brain mis interpreted.

I can't find 41% equity vs any range. Also can't find 30% vs any realistic range. Equity run somewhere in the middle.

Definitely not 10% though

Why not? I just gave 2 probable scenarios. The HJ probably has a nice pocket pair 99+ or a big ace. HJ could have worse (KQs?)

If UTG hasnt woken up with a premium hand and we give him a random hand like Q7 or T5s and HJ has a premium pocket pair or big ace, we are going to be around 40-41% overall. Yes or No?

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12-23-2018 , 12:10 PM

#32

mikko

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Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 2,863

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeStarr

Because I played with a lot of ranges in pokercruncher. Can't reach 41% equity

Quote

12-23-2018 , 12:29 PM

#33

aisrael01

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Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 415

You have every right to play a tight strategy, but the discussions in this forum should be focused on finding the optimal plays. If you're rolled for a game and you're sacrificing a 15BB return on a 70BB investment, which is a 20% ROI, then that's a losing play which should be discouraged. If you're not rolled for the game then sure, you can sit back and wait for aces.

Quote:

Originally Posted by snowman

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12-23-2018 , 01:01 PM

#34

Chicagodude

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Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 2,810

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikko

Don't understand how you can range him to 10''s and JJ.
You thinking he would flat AA-QQ?

I'm never folding. Also think he sounds like guy isoing wider than expected.

You're right. It was just a gut feeling I had based on playing with him in the past. Didn't make me right. It's a rare situation that's for certain.

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12-23-2018 , 01:04 PM

#35

Chicagodude

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Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 2,810

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeStarr

Winning proposition. Its not a ton of +EV (about $30) so if I had a small bankroll Id fold, but Im personally never folding. You dont get into that many situations to make 15BBs of EV in one hand. OP even said he didnt top off because he knows hes going to be getting all in at some point soon and he wanted to risk less. This is that spot.

Absolute gold. You're right. Seeing a flop was very expensive in this game and it was the sort of thing you could never limp and eventually they'd go all in. The players weren't that crazy but the one guy (not the drunk guy) but a player i described in another thread completely tilted the table. Well said.

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12-23-2018 , 02:17 PM

#36

ES2

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 1,645

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeStarr

You can't give him q7. We know exactly what his range is, it is 100% of hands. You can plug in VR for versus random on pro poker tools.

AcKh: 31.82%
AK,TT+: 47.21%
VR: 20.98%

I feel kind of foolish because, until Chris broke it down, I thought we'd be in nice shape vs something like that.

Now, vs described V. I think we can give him some more stuff but it is hard to get it up to 41%

Quote

12-23-2018 , 02:45 PM

#37

aisrael01

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 415

Given that Villain isn't an OMC, we can give him a wider range:

37.07% -- AcKh
38.76% -- ATs+,AQo+,TT+
21.82% -- 32o+,32s+,22+

37% equity and we're getting 2 to 1 on our money. That's good for a 10% ROI on our $140 investment.

If you want to get up to 41% you have to throw in a few more dominated hands like KQo,AJo, and KQs. If Villain is opening an optimal range from the HJ, we can get to 41% (Villain should be opening at least 10% of hands if he's playing anywhere near optimal).

Quote:

Originally Posted by ES2

Last edited by aisrael01; 12-23-2018 at 02:52 PM.

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12-23-2018 , 03:11 PM

#38

wait

banned

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 1,115

You guys are ranging 2nd guy so tight for your nit agendas

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12-23-2018 , 03:21 PM

#39

El Diablo

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OP,

So what you’re really saying here is V raised the blind all-in from 140 to 150?

Anyone saying fold here is absolutely ridiculous.

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12-23-2018 , 03:28 PM

#40

Chicagodude

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Effectively yeah just had to put in 10 bucks more that's true.

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12-23-2018 , 03:35 PM

#41

El Diablo

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Folders,

You are ranging V absolutely horribly. He basically called a 140 blind all-in with one guy behind him with 150 and two super short stacks in the blinds.

A decent reg is gonna call waaaaaaay wider than you guys are guessing. Easily could have any ace here, for example.

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12-23-2018 , 04:57 PM

#42

MikeStarr

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ES2

You can't give him q7. We know exactly what his range is, it is 100% of hands. You can plug in VR for versus random on pro poker tools.

AcKh: 31.82%
AK,TT+: 47.21%
VR: 20.98%

I feel kind of foolish because, until Chris broke it down, I thought we'd be in nice shape vs something like that.

Now, vs described V. I think we can give him some more stuff but it is hard to get it up to 41%

That's great if you want to talk yourself into folding. I think hes wider than that. Specifically he has more Ax in his range which you dominate.

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12-23-2018 , 07:25 PM

#43

ChrisV

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Quote:

Originally Posted by El Diablo

OK. I ranged him based on this, from OP:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chicagodude

I put him on JJ or 10s here but also felt he could have AQ. AJ not really a possibility. 88 below I've never seen him do anything like that before. There was a fourth player to consider in the hand who didn't figure into my decision as he was the BB and a total station.

I agree a decent reg should be much wider. Certainly possible OP is just wrong but that's why we were ranging him that way.

Quote

12-23-2018 , 07:30 PM

#44

snowman

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 1,748

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chicagodude

NL 1/2
Hero is in for 250 but now at 150. It's a crazy game and the price of seeing a flop is huge. Hero topped off once but now doesn't mind being low. This stuff is nuts to a person of conservative temperament. Villain is a 70 yo WG who isn't an OMC. He's a respected reg but no nit. He's crafty and does goofy stuff occasionally where everyone looks at him like he's on glue (happens but not often). He has $290.
Hero has A

on the button. UTG goes all in blind for the third time in a row. He's a blackjack player who ran it up to $500 and now is at $140 or so. He's given up and wants to play more blackjack. Pre-deal he moves $140 out.
Villain raises to $290. I felt like he was trying to isolate. Hero is on the button. BB and SB have below $60. Hero???????????

Op stated he's out of his element
OP stopped topping up on chips because of this
OP no longer playing his A game

if we put AK off-suit at 40% its +EV
at 31% its -EV
you also have SB & BB with small stack who could come along further lowering your %

all depends on the read of V here getting out of line or not

Like I said if you want to gamble go ahead and call it off
OP clearly skittish on this that's why he's posting
+ EV or -EV either way he will lose this more often than not.
so if short rolled its a coin flip

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12-23-2018 , 07:44 PM

#45

El Diablo

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Chris,

OP also made it sound like V was raising when he was really just calling a shortish stack blind all-in in late position with no big stacks left to act. His ranging made no sense given the player profile.

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12-23-2018 , 07:45 PM

#46

El Diablo

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Snow,

It’s a lot more +EV when you give V a realistic range.

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12-23-2018 , 07:52 PM

#47

hyperknit

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Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 2,692

1st guy has any 2
2nd guy has an iso range of 88+, AJo+, ATs+, KQ. And he justified in using this range since it will be a +EV shove for sure.
This spot is a MASSIVE print spot.

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12-24-2018 , 02:45 AM

#48

krilleater

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 666

Snap shove.

HJ should be ISOing very wide here. Possibly any A, certainly 88+. He has plenty of dominated hands and hands we're flipping with.

Only fold if losing would bust your roll, in which case you shouldn't be playing anyways.

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12-24-2018 , 08:02 AM

#49

Chicagodude

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Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 2,810

Quote:

Originally Posted by snowman

I wasn't skittish. I auto called. Results orientation made me post. I wanted to know if most would agree with the decision or whether it was a good decision. I did not want the results to skew my perceptions.