Villain is young 26 year old good player, pretty aggro loves to 3 bet but views hero as a good player that doesn't really fold to him very often once I vested in a hand. (Obv have cought him bluffing 1 to many times. )

Hero opens 1100 effective ak o in hj over one limp to 25 hero makes it 85 on the btn. Hero decides to mix it up and call because I always 4 bet here but wanted to try and "trap" and win a big pot.

Flop is k52 rainbow. Hero check calls 85.
Turn is q h making 2 hearts hero has a h

Villain bets 225, hero calls.


River is 7c hero checks and villain jams allin for 600.

Can hero fold here?

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He has a pretty polarized 3 betting frequency. So I wouldn't really expect him to ever have a hand like kq

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I don't like calling the flop - i think you should raise/fold the flop. Being this deep is kind of dangerous because your hand is very strong that you can get married too as the pot gets deep and when stupid cards come off it's very easy to make a mistake. The Q is an example of a stupid card because now he could have KQ or QQ.

As played you are basically playing guessing games and have no clue where you are in this hand.

He is on the BTN so i'm going to assume he is 3betting a wider hand range. That being said if you have seen him barrel off 200BB as a 3 barrel bluff than this is a call, other wise it's a pretty easy fold.

Most people do not make big bluffs when stacks get huge. I would of probably asked for a table change if this guy was abusing you.

This hand is very player dependent and based heavily on history/V tendencies. In a vacuum, I'd fold vs. most V's. Versus a tight 3-betting range (AK+, QQ+) we are chopping at best. I don't know what V's range is but you should have a good idea. Given that he views you as sticky vs. him, I'd imagine he'd expect you to call more often than normal and fold.

Think river is a fold due to his sizing pattern. Only way its not a fold is if he perceives you to 4bet AK/KK/QQ pre.

I'd shove the turn before I would call the river.

Why?

any timing tells?

what was his reaction when the Q hit the turn?

how was he running at the table? good? bad?

If I am putting him on any hand that beats me it is QQ.

in a vacuum, I am folding.

If he bets the river too quickly or has been running very good, I am calling.

Interesting spot. You are not ahead of his value range (AA, KK, QQ, AK), you are at most splitting the pot. So the question is: is he bluffing often enough to justify the call? Pot is about 900, 600 to call, so he has to be bluffing about 1 in 4 times, considering you are splitting the pot some times.
Does not seem like the best 3 barrel bluff spot in the world, as you should be folding a lot of mid strength hands on the turn (any pair below JJ), but I'm calling anyway if the villain is aggro enough.

So I wrote a long post explaining why and kind of changed my mind. The reason to CRAI is to fold out AA/AK specifically, which are 9 combos. If we can rely on OP's read that KQ is not in the picture, we are mainly concerned about him calling a CRAI with KK and QQ (6 combos). Now, if his range is actually QQ+, AK, we should just check-fold, as the bluff is slightly unprofitable and calling down is a catastrophe. Therefore, if we are continuing, it's because he has some bluffs in his range. Let's assume all bluffs fold to a CRAI. Thus, the difference between CRAI and calling down is (value gained from folding out AK/AA ) - [(value lost by not collecting an additional bet from the bluffs that would have fired again) - (value lost to AA on a river barrel).

Delta = 565 * (3 AA combos) + 282.5 * (6 AK combos) - 600 * (bluffing combos that 3 barrel) + 600 * (3 AA combos)

Or very roughly speaking, if he has more than about 9 combos that he bluffs the river with, you are better off calling down than CRAI on the turn, if I did all that math right.

Your plan was to trap and win a big pot. You flop TPTK and got a big pot. Wasn't this your ideal scenario pre-flop?

You obviously must have thought that he was capable of gii with a hand that loses to TPTK, right? If your plan was to create this exact scenario, I don't think you can fold to a ~PSB on the river.

thanks for the response. i was thinking call down > c/r turn, which is why i asked.


this was pretty much my thinking from the start.

So hero is opening 3b and not 4! How tf do u guys follow this clearly there are typos in op that make this impossible to follow for the average joe

I can't view AK as a "trapping" hand to win a big pot. Don't you agree?

I do agree but I thought villain wouldn't ever think I'd have ak because of history between us


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I am 4! here preflop. If he is 3! a ton most of the time you are probably just c/f and that sucks. As played, I guess it really depends on what types of bluffs you have seen him run, whether they were in 3! pots/how many barrels fired. If he is 3! all the time and is barreling like crazy calling could be ok. How light you called him when you picked off his bluff could matter here too. Ultimately, based on his sizing as played I am probably folding otr unless villains past bluffs indicate strongly otherwise. I think you need to elaborate on your "history". If villain knows you aren't folding at this point otr and is still jamming, calling cant possibly be good here ever.

No I would call here, well played

you don't beat a single value hand (I'd give him all the two pairs here fwiw). you played your hand like a bluff catcher the whole way, which leads to having no idea where your at, and playing for stacks otr. it doesn't get any worse than that imo.

Look your plan for the hand was to "trap." I hate that plan, but you need to see it through, obviously you felt he wouldn't give you credit for being strong enough to call off, so you have to call off. That doesn't mean I think your good very often or do I agree w/ your plan/line here.

But the point is you made a decision based on the info you had at the time, you know this guy isn't afraid to put chips in the middle, so you can't act surprised when he does, or now change your mind.

you need to trust yourself at the table. But I'd want to define this villains hand way way better before I put my stack in and the way to do that is through aggression. 4bet pre/ c/r flop, c/r turn