Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot
Why?
So I wrote a long post explaining why and kind of changed my mind. The reason to CRAI is to fold out AA/AK specifically, which are 9 combos. If we can rely on OP's read that KQ is not in the picture, we are mainly concerned about him calling a CRAI with KK and QQ (6 combos). Now, if his range is actually QQ+, AK, we should just check-fold, as the bluff is slightly unprofitable and calling down is a catastrophe. Therefore, if we are continuing, it's because he has some bluffs in his range. Let's assume all bluffs fold to a CRAI. Thus, the difference between CRAI and calling down is (value gained from folding out AK/AA ) - [(value lost by not collecting an additional bet from the bluffs that would have fired again) - (value lost to AA on a river barrel).
Delta = 565 * (3 AA combos) + 282.5 * (6 AK combos) - 600 * (bluffing combos that 3 barrel) + 600 * (3 AA combos)
Or very roughly speaking, if he has more than about 9 combos that he bluffs the river with, you are better off calling down than CRAI on the turn, if I did all that math right.