Hammond Horseshoe NL 1/2
Hero in MP with AK and $320 or so. Hero has been at table for 2 hours and is running well. Not a nit image today probably TAG though.
We're playing 7 handed. It's folded to me. I raise to $15.
Button calls 15.
He's a 30 yo Hispanic male. I do not know him. He's been there for about 12 hands. He folded 3 of them. He raised to 15 six times and called the other 3. He seems like a maniac but he's had hands. In 12 hands he's already on his third buy in. However, he lost $200 with a set of 8s vs. flush draw. Then he lost another 200 with trip kings so....He's at $200 or so now.
BB calls $15. Everyone else folds. Solid 40 yo BG and reg. Very sensible player usually.
Pot is $46.
AQ10
BB checks. I then bet $32 here.
Button calls, BB folds.
Pot $110
TURN J=Broadway for me.
I bet $85. Too large? what do you think?
He tanks. He hems. He looks around. He grabs his cigarettes, slides his cards and calls. What does he have? AQ? KQ?
RIVER Q
I think of what to do and he says, "Don't worry man. AK is good." He has not said a word previously since he sat down.
Hero????????????
Check? Bet his last 68 bucks into the pot? What's optimal?
I have to say the speech made me think over something that should not be difficult.

Ignore the speech play and ship it in. There's $280 in the pot and you're not going to fold if he shoves giving you over 5:1.

On river you have to bet it. It is a small amount compared to pot and villain will bet it if he has a full house anyways. You'd be priced to call so no reason not to bet.

If he could beat AK, I wouldn't think he would say "AK is good", that would make me want to check. If I could beat AK here, I wouldn't say anything at all, as Id want you to stick the last $68 in. I also never believe what other players say at the table.

I think he just wants to get to showdown without having to put another $ in the pot.

Absent any information about what villain's speech means I would ignore it. Go ahead and put him all in.

Depending on villain his speech could be honest or it could be deceptive. He may be trying to bait you into shoving or bait you into checking. It isn't a good situation because if he is telling the truth he probably folds to your bet and if he is lying he is probably trying to bait you into betting. The thing is he doesn't have enough money to get me to slow down. He might call with worse and he doesn't have enough money to get me to fold.

Also, your turn bet is too big for the situation. It's more then half of villain's remaining stack so unless villain is terrible he should be shoving or folding to that bet.

Pre-flop, flop and turn are fine. Given that he has only 155 on the turn you could bet smaller (60) and hope he jams.

On the river, there is 280 in the pot and he has 68 remaining...

Villain's range is:

Ace rag (64 combos), Full houses (15 combos), broadway (a lot of combos) and a few random Qx hands that just made trips.

With the amount of money in the pot, this guy's image, and the fact that he could also have broadway we're never folding to a raise on the river.

Given the amount of ace rag in his range, we can't risk letting him get off cheap by checking or betting small to induce. Just ship the remaining 68 and let him contemplate hero-calling with worse. If he folds his ace-rag then he has to worry that he got bluffed and that sets things up nicely for later.

Great analysis. I think I wanted to get him to fold 2 pair on the turn. You're right the bet was too big.

I felt played/conned after the hand. I checked. He pushed 68. This made me happy and I felt clever.

Then he turned over Q10 for a boat...and it sucked. What could I have done though? Nothing really here.

His turn call with what he seems to know was only 4 outs was horrible. So no, you really couldn't escape it here.

That is what I was worried about the speech. Not QT unless he happened to have QdTd but sets and AQ might feel committed. He was trying to talk you into shoving yourself because he was afraid you might not have AK and would check/fold.

There is nothing you could do about this. This sort of terrible play and lucky river can be frustrating but these types are all money losing in the long run. Charge them a lot to draw and you will eventually get their money.

you played it fine. All of us lose $200 on this hand.

Keep posting and learning. If you know the spots and are sufficiently bankrolled that will help you to stay dispassionate and objective at the table and your graph will edge its way upwards.

Eventually, win or lose, you'll feel close to nothing in this kind of spot. You'll want to know how other players perceive you but you really won't care if they think you're a strong or weak player. That's just information that's helpful to know so you can adjust to it and make more money.

Thanks for all the great feedback everybody. This forum has really taught me a lot.

Yes, and when I lost here I was conscious that while the pot was big the only time a real decision occurred was at the river and then it was only 68 bucks so i didn't steam at all. I do see these kinds of plays over and over again at the Horseshoe despite a lot of guys saying that 1/2 is nitland there.

Never folding for the 68 bucks but you may have spotted a tell that saves you big money later if you play w/him again. I play with a real quiet calling station that only talks when he has a monster- he saves me a ton of money. I opened for 3/4 pot, then open folded bottom two on a q87 flop because he started squawking the other day to his amazement. He showed q7.

Come on guys! This is classic. A player acts 180 out of his 'normal' equates to big hand.
Sure, it's easy to say after OP posted results, but it's true. And the $68 into a $280 pot....
what's he hoping to achieve here except some thin value? I still call & then tell myself: "Never again! Go with your reads!"