AK on missed flop versus TAG, silly overbet? 1/2
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 98
Hi everyone, the villain just sat down 20 hands ago. My initial read was he is a TAG because he bought in for the max $300, played a few hands where he was talking through possible ranges for the other player.
I had a tight image and had just won some big hands showing down the nuts. I have $500.
1 limp to villain in CO, who raises to $15. Hero in SB with AcKs, raises to $45. Everyone folds to CO who calls.
Flop ($90): Jc-6s-4d. Hero bets $100.
I was hoping he was making a position play and would fold preflop. I figured my image was strong enough that a continuation bet could get him to fold mid-range pairs up to TT, worse aces and AK, and overcards. If he called I would check fold.
Was $100 way too much for this logic? Bet half the pot instead?
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,962
Yes $100 is too much no matter what your cards are
I assume that $50 would get you nearly as many folds with much less risk.
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 2,475
I think this is a really interesting spot. I probably would advocate for a delayed c-bet with a lot of my 3b range. I probably c-bet Q’s and maybe K’s. Almost surely check A’s, AKs and J’s. Shouldn’t have AJ, 66 or 44 in my 3b range too often.
AP I would delay c-bet $60-65 OTT and then fire $110 on any basically river.
AP I also think you have to call on the flop if he shoves over you.