History:

Hero($315) probably has garbage image, has topped off a few times with chips from pocket, not sure how many have noticed but have gotten caught bluffing once or twice. However, just won $150+ pot off V1 with middle set, raised pre, bet flop, check turn, overbet river, V1 called and said "misread the bet, if I had known it was 75 I wouldn't have called", so we assume he had top pair, weak kicker type hand.

Opening raises are anywhere from $7-20, kind of a weird dynamic. One old lady who is awful, some bad-decent regs, one or two ok players.

V1($300): loose agg middle aged black guy, reg, just paid off hero

V2($450): tricky-ish young asian, has checked on the end IP with strong SD value against a fish's nuts about an hour ago, so has some hand reading abilities, I have mostly avoided him, he might have the best grasp of my image.


The Hand:

V1 limps MP, V2 limps LP

Hero raises $12 with AKo, both call.

Flop (~$36) AQJr

V1 check, V2 check, Hero bet $20. V1 fold, V2 call

Turn (~$75) AQJA

V2 check, Hero tank-bet $50. V2 tank-call

River ($175) AQJA4r

V2 check, Hero check.


V2 range at this point mostly consists of naked aces, boats, KQ type hands. Basically all value hands and he's the type of player to call 2 with bluff catchers probably, but I doubt 3 streets. We have 230 behind, b/f is never an option. Thoughts on river check?
Rest seems standard, could maybe go slightly more on flop, but we want to keep in dominated aces and second pair type hands.

If u have a garbage image then bet closer to 2/3 pot on all streets.. As you will get looked up lighter alot..

U prob missed a ton of value on the rvr cking back...

I don't think river is as polarized as it looks. Not out of the question you get calls from weak aces or even Qx.

Fair enough, this is basically what I was looking for, thx. Sizing?

Combos including QQ, JJ, AQ, and AJ probably would have raised PF, and with only one ace left in the deck, AQ and AJ are less likely, and those hands might have raised the turn. Villain 2 played this like a weaker ace or weaker queen, so yeah the more I think about it, the more I like betting the river.

QQ and JJ could have raised on any round and didn't. A slowplay is always possible but it would make me feel more confident knowing that nobody else raised PF either.

How many weaker Ax is V limp-calling pf though? Besides AT I don't know a lot of hands that pay you off otr. Some that missed with pair+broadway draw, but of hands that are going to c/c otr, I don't see that being too wide.

It really depends on how many Ax he plays. If A5-A9 are in his pf range, I'm betting bigger ott and betting otr. If he's folding or limp-folding A9 and worse I think the turn is the final street we get value from pretty often.

Most villains at this level have a hard time folding the river after investing a lot of money on previous streets. You'd be surprised how light they will call you. You should be betting this all day and to do otherwise is costing you a ton of value.

Also, FWIW, against many villains you can safely bet fold this even with very little money behind.

Grunch:

If the raises are going $7-$20, I would maybe raise a little more but its not a HUGE difference.

Flop is fine although maybe a little more to like 25-28 depending on what the average bets were. Raising larger pre can set you up for bigger flop bets also.

Turns good (although I would bet a little more to like $65 or so)

I would raise river to $115-$125 and expect to get called by KQ JQ AT Sometimes AQ or AJ might show up but with an aggro player flatting pre flop and a trickiesh knowledgeable player just calling pre...doesn't seem like a right line for that kind of hand. KT might show up but I think we are ahead here a majority of the time to just bet/call...I don't think a check on the river is to induce a bet I think it's more of a scared mid pair or trips with ****ty kicker.

JJ QQ 44 aren't likely in his range considering he just called pre.

I'd say river bet is good

Completely agree, although he's tricky I don't remember lots of raises pre, which could be a function of him being card dead, although his stack has fluctuated so it's not like he's not getting into pots.

V isn't stupid, so we imagine he raises AQ 100% and AJ, what, 99%? with 1 caller in front and good position.

I just don't see him calling with much on the river, but it depends on how much Axs he has in his range. Other than that, any reasonable bet I make he'll be folding Jx for sure and my guess would be Qx, nobody triple barrels with air or second pair on this type of board at 1/2.

This articulates my thought process pretty well.



What about sizing on river if we decide to bet?

There are definitely guys who can't fold trips at any cost. Against them, I'd shove a lot of the time otr. About $230 into $175.

Even if this V can fold trips, a shove looks like we could have missed broadway, also the non-flush 4 is a pretty good card because there's no way it helped, so when we bet $230 on that river it looks suspicious. There are time I'd just go for value though, probably around $120. Two stacks of $50 with the other 4 chips on top so it looks not so intimidating.

^love it. Over betting the pot when you have a monster is an under-appreciated play IMO