Was this 9-handed?

If it was, my sense is that Hero's range is probably not much wider than {88+, ATs+, AJo+, KQs # 98 } with around 50 combinations of other suited aces/low pp's/suited connectors as semi-bluffs.

Villain's 3bet risked $100 to win $33, so Hero only needs to call with like {TT+, AQs, AK #50}. (If Hero min4bets {AA, AJs+ #18} then he can call even less without being exploitable, say only {KK-JJ, 1/2 AKo #24}.)

Such tight ranges are of course because Villain 3-bet 1.5xpot.

But the result is that Villain's value range is only {KK+, AKs #16}, which should be accompanied by (semi-)bluffs like {Axs, AKo #18} that remove the most cards from Hero's non-folding range.

In any case, due to the high probability that Villain holds at least one A (> 80%) Hero's calling range is relatively very weak on this flop, capped at about 30% equity with the {TT+, AQs, AK}. So Villain is not likely to have enough bluffs in his range on this board. (But I don't like his check; I think he should realize that equity and bet.)

Hero "must" stack off with AK here in the sense that he should felt about 8/27 of his range (13 combos) vs. 1/2 psbets on F/T/R to avoid being exploited.

On the other hand, he should pause for a moment of somber reflection on the turn. Does Villain ever check AK on the flop when he has almost no chance of inducing enough bluffs to justify giving up a 2-outer? Does Villain ever not check AA on the flop and give up the chance of Hero walking into a fatal 2-outer?...

All you do here is post troll posts. How you're not banned is beyond me.

Listen, obviously BB 3-bet range CAN be wider, HOWEVER, we have played with villain for roughly an hour plus and haven't seen him get too out of line in the time spent playing with him. He is 3-betting us out of the BB with no callers in between us to a fairly large amount. The odds he has AQ here is roughly 0%. The odds he has 99-TT is less than 5%. The odds he has JJ is 5-10%. The odds he has QQ is 10-20%. That means his range here is KK+ 75+% of the time.

You think he's just going to randomly get out of line with us OOP with a garbage hand just for ****s and giggles? I don't think so.

Also, I hate our preflop call. The pot is $220 and we have 640 behind if we flat preflop. If the flop comes 932, and he fires $100, what do we do? Just call another 100? Raise to 200 and fold to a shove? Raise to $200 and pray to god he folds? Raise to 200 and shove turn bluffing an overpair (KK+?).

Just complete spew.

I don't know how this is. If you check the flop, he fires $135-140 on turn and the pot is big enough on the river for a pot size shove. (unless you're going to call once and fold the river, which is bordering on awful).

Chopping or aa. 75/25. Line looks hella strong, but i prob shrug-call if guy isnt an uber nit. Nits will check this flop with AA 100% of time but not always with AK. Moar reads the better, but w/o you kinda have to call it off here and shrug off cooler vs. AA amirite?

Yes, sorry, forgot to include that.

I appreciate the analysis, but I think you may be too worried about the whole concept of "exploitable." Shooting for GTO play in low-stakes live games is not the way to maximize your winrate. Whether Villain can exploit Hero in this hand by 1/2 psb F/T/R light is irrelevant, because the probability that he's doing that here is essentially zero. When they play hundreds or thousands of hands together, then we can start thinking about that.

Seems like a contradiction here I agree with the 2nd statement. It's a dry board and there's only one ace left; Hero is folding most of his range to a bet, and every hand in his range is drawing basically dead to Villain's AAA. Why not hope that Hero will either stab at it or take a free turn, hit a 2-outer, and stack off?

Thank you for the advice; I agree the key question in this hand was probably, "Is BB bluffing enough that I must call another $80 preflop with this hand?" and not, "Am I being exploitable if I fold AKo here?"

You cannot be exploitable if you play in casinos. People come and go every time and also they are in-and-out all the time. They get busted and leave and someone else comes in preoccupied by their hands....,lol...lol..lol.,. Just include in your OOP hands T9/87/76/55/K9s and raise with them from UTG couple times. All the science of being exploitable goes out the window.

When you raise from UTG or UTG1 and get called by some dude, you know what type of hands you got to beat.

AK

Of course there are many profiles of players...but when someone 3-bets your UTG raise to 1.5xpot, what range do you put them on without a read? Does it really contain enough hands that are not {QQ+, AKs} to call with AKo as your default?

Just my two cents, but this c/c,b,b line seems to be extremely prevalent among the really tight live players ive run into when they have a set. Not everytime of course, but a 3 bet from the BB and then c/c A high flop and lead turn, lead river, is super strong and tends to be exactly what was shown down: a set.