1/2, 9 handed

Folds to hero in mp who raises to 16 with AK offsuit.
Only the villain calls on button.

This villain is like 90 but is still pretty 'with it'. I have played maybe only 6 hours with him. I've never seen him make a big bluff. Never seen him get out of line. He does a fair bit of limp folding preflop. He bets his big hands hard. Not sure what his range is exactly but id expect it to be pretty strong.

$300 effective

Flop ($35)
KJ7 rainbow

Hero bets $24. Villain calls

Turn ($83)
KQ7T with 2 hearts

Hero checks, villain fires out $100 quickly. Hero folds and villain didnt show. Thoughts on my turn check? Im hoping it checks through so i can fire on the river. I question my line because i dont think i ever really check here and call a big bet. Should i have a check calling range here? If so, i guess AK would be in it. Thoughts?

nh, i play it same way

except I'd tend to open smaller pre

I don't mind the large open pre as long as you normally will get a call.

Think you played the hand well too.

Flop changes partway through the hand... but I get the idea.

I guess the turn fold follows from your read and the overbet. Probably wise. Not sure I agree with the check though. The trouble is that it allows a lot of free draws to 1 pair/gutshots hands. And it could encourage a worse hand to bet into you....(I think his turn bet would have been a lot harder to fold if it was half-pot).

With reads, I think the fold is clearly right.

I plugged in a pretty nitty CC range -- any PP, JTs+, AQo+, ATs+, KJs and his continuing range OTF has us crushed.

Assuming he's continuing with TP+, or any 7-out or better draw (i.e. GS+pair or better), we have 28% equity.

Against this guy, x/f is probably perfect. If he does check it back, you have a green light to get some value on the river.

If we open his range up, obviously we're doing better, but still not in good shape.

FWIW, in this scenario he's folding 80% of his hands. If you could somehow get him to call and everyone else to fold, raising with ATC is highly profitable.

Could you please explain why raising with atc is highly profitable? if he is only playing top 20%, we would be way behind if he calls?

It doesn't matter what he had. You don't want to play big pots with TPTK.
He can have a monster, he can be bluffing or be suicidal. It doesn't matter. Let him have a small pot.

I think I may have been unclear. I meant folding 80% of his hands on the flop with the range I gave him.

The situation I described is pretty hypothetical, since it's hard to get everyone to fold but the one person you want to call.

My point was that folding 80% of one's range on the flop is highly exploitable.

Anyway, just in the interest of completeness....

Preflop, let's say he limps, you raise to 16, and he continues only with the top 20% of his range. Everyone else folds and the blinds get raked away.

80% of the time you win 2 (EV 1.6)
On then flop, he will again fold 80% of his range.
So 20% * 80% you win 16 (EV 2.56)
20% * 20% you lose 40 (EV -1.6)

Total EV 2.56. Even if the rake is $4 and you tip $1 you're making money even if you never flop a hand and always give up after the turn.