Situation:

Hero has been at the table for about 2-3 hours. Table is normally loose-passive, but there are a couple better players sitting. Hero took the seat to the immediate left of the only deep stack.

Hero started out playing nitty, but is now playing LAG and on the verge of running over the table. The table has not adjusted (yet) to Hero's aggression level, and most PFR are narrowing the field to 1 or 2 (or still getting lots of folds), and most C-bets take pots down OFT.

In this hand, there is only one Villain to be concerned with.

Hero, CO, (covers): Nitty initially, but LAG now. Opening 50% of hands from the button if table limps in, and usually taking down good flop textures w/ a cbet. Table does not seem to be adjusting yet.

Villain, Button, (175bb): Sat only about an hour ago. White guy, 30s. Seems very careful. He x/tank/called OTR with 75o (from BB) on a J75K7 when another player bet about 1/2 pot (the other player limped KK from LJ, ). Seems like Villain might be pretty good, but just either scared money or in some sort of runbad hell.

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Action Preflop: A couple limpers to Hero in the CO who has AK, and opens to 7bb. Villain calls, 3 other callers. We see a flop 5 ways.

Normally there would not be 4 callers, so the PFR sizing is not an issue, IMO. But I'm open to comments here.

Flop (33bb): K J 5

Checks to Hero who thinks for about 20s and then bets 20bb. Villain fairly quickly (but not immediately) raises to 40bb. Folds to Hero who thinks for 30s and calls.

This C-bet was on the smaller size for Hero (normally pot or more with this many callers and this flop texture), but since Hero was "on the verge of running over the table" I wanted to take off the pressure here a little and see if I could suck a couple players in.

Turn (83bb): K J 5 K

Hero was looking at Villain during the dealing of the turn, and Villain didn't seem to react. Hero looks at the cards and thinks, "awww....f...". Hero thinks for 20s and checks.

Obviously, now Hero has a monster hand, but pairing the top card, especially a K, is going to scare the hell out of everyone. I thought that this was the ultimate action killer.

Villain thinks for 10s and moves all in for 128bb.

Now WTF does Hero do?

If Hero calls, final pot will be 339bb. Hero needs 37% equity to call.

Specifically, I really want to call here. Can someone show me a reasonable range where this is a call?

I think you can call.

I'm not sure why he would want to blow you out of the hand with a full house, but I guess he would with an underfull like 55, either because he is scared of you outdrawing with a K, or because he hopes you have to call with a K. Then again, as played he has no reason to believe your hand is as strong as it is. So why make such a strong bet with a made full house? If the board had not paired then I would think a set much more likely because he is scared of the flush draw.

That said, let's go with a tight range, but I am still leaving out KJ because I just don't see him making that move with the unbeatable nuts. I also don't think a careful player is calling a raise with K5, but maybe he would with K5s so I'll keep it in there. Unless I ****ed up here, holygrailofpoker.com is giving exactly 37% equity against 55, JJ, K5, KQ:


created by Holy Grail of Poker

I included KQ because that almost makes even more sense than a made full house as he would be careful and protect against flush draw. If we remove K5, then equity jumps to 44%. If we add KT, then it jumps to 48%. Throw in the possibility of combo draws or him just getting tired of your aggression, and it's an easy call, right?

This is a tough one...from your description, villain seems competent. Did he seem like the player that would min raise the flop after flopping a set? that seems a bit odd to me right off the bat

Range is AK, KQ, maybe KJ (that even seems a bit tough to put him on), All pocket pairs.

I'd personally put him on trips and make this call.

This is a super gross spot. The min raise OTF more often than not is a top pair type hand as opposed to a set but that is of course player dependent. I'm assuming you haven't seen him take this type of line previously?

dashcpa gave you a nice graph and I agree on the range he gave the villain. I don't love a call or a fold and I think it's close either way. I probably tank and try to probe villain for information after about 30 seconds.

Easy call. We should have led the turn though.

Yikes... I make a mistake with the pot size at the end.

Final pot should 369bb, with 128bb to call. Requiring 34.7% equity.

dashcpa,

Nice post. Thanks!

Do you really think KQ takes this line? Maybe like 25-50% of the time, at most? I'm certain you have to discount KQ, here. But this is like 1 combo.

I think he can have K5s, so that means only K5 is possible. I do not think he can have K5o. But again, its only 1 combo, so really shouldn't have much affect on the computation.

There is no way he has "all pocket pairs" in his range here. IMO, just get that out of your mind. If you think he's doing this with 88, then its a stone-cold bluff.

I have no history with this Villain that implies he'd be on a stone-cold bluff here.

Maybe he's pushing QT, or T9, but his line is not just a bluff, IMO.

Hero having the A makes Villain's line way stronger.

Yep. This was very heavily on my mind when deciding what to do.

Apologies for confusion, when I said range, I meant pre-flop. I put him on KQ and think you have to call.

Rough spot, tough call, but as played I think I call here. I think I would have bet the turn though.

and

Would you guys elaborate on your suggestion for leading the turn?

I think this is a clear check on the turn since we're WA/WB and never getting called by anything except exactly 2 hands which we still beat, QT and T9

Though I admit, if we bet the turn for even as small as 1/4 pot, and Villain ships, it becomes a trivial call. I'm not sure this is good enough reason to bet the turn on its own though.

Boats prob not gonna move in to "protect" here.. His hand looks like a k and your hand looks like a fd when u ck the turn.. So call

No apology necessary. And I apologize if my response seemed a little harsh.

I want to further clarify though... if Villain has a PP, he's never taking this line for value. This guy is at least good enough to know that a PP is crushed by Hero's range here.

Just can't help but feel like a V would not play JJ/55 this strong with the draws out there. He would certainly bet, but he would likely bet smaller on the turn. And he would also raise more on the flop. He's IP, but he's got to fade about 100 turn cards that he's going to hate is he's got a set.
Almost all broadway cards suck for him, as well as any heart. And if he's semi-competent he's going to want to give you a worse price to call than just a min raise over a small flop cBet. This looks much more like QThh, T9hh or some sort of TP turned top trips type hand.

Also, when you check the turn you make your hand look a lot more like something that does not have a K in it. Which once again, he may think is his in to shove it in here. Hoping to use that turn card to put you off your AA/QQ/AJ type hand.

And given the fact that you've been running all over the table, I'd be inclined to call this off. The shove on the turn seems like a 'sht I didn't really expect to get called on the turn, lets just shove it in now and see what happens type play."

There's no way that he was planning to shove the turn before it came or he makes it 55bb or so on the flop, making a turn jam less than pot sized and easier for you to call.

calling the flop raise is pretty loose because of baluga. also once you decide you are ahead and call flop then u cant fold now.

Well written good post. I pretty much agree with everything.

Yes of course he can show up with set of 5 or J here from time to time, but given our aggressive image (wich can make certain villains response in several uncarateristic manners) i believe he has worse trips here enough of the times that vi have to call.

I am not fist pumping Hellmuth instacalling it, but we are in such brilliant shape the times that he has worse trips that i believe its +EV long term to call.

I don't think V has a FH. I play LAG quite often, and I find that when my opponents have the nuts (or semi-nuts like a lower FH) they almost always slow play it, expecting me to push money into the pot - especially when I'm OOP, they'll just call. They almost never raise UNLESS they're scared of me hitting my draws.

I'm not excited about it, but I would call this shove. This would be super read-dependent, but it's how I make most of my money - when scared players try to protect their hands against my stronger hand. Looking at this board through the eyes of scared money, and you see flush and straight draws.

Eiplogue

Hero takes about 20s to think it over. This one was really hard. I counted up the pot and the shove and decided I probably had enough equity to call if he has just QT and T9 in his range here (in addition to KJ, JJ and 55).

But my gut just kept screaming at me that he has a boat, this time.

I had remembered that my K was on the top of my cards, so I turned my K face up.

Villain says, "that's quite a card, what's your kicker?". His body language is calm.

I say, "Jack".

He says, "You're slow-rolling me with a Jack?".

And at this point I know he has 55.

I muck.

He shows 55.

Thanks for playing.

Nice angle. Post that in the OP next time.

Feels like maybe a busted draw turned bluff.
But I think KJ or KQ is the range he is on.
Its a monster, strong hand or a bluff.
You should play your game and make the call.
If he is taking your check as weakness on this board, he should think harder.
If your beat- NH sir.

sick hand, the villain took a line I wouldn't but I'm always a fan of putting opponents in tough spots were they have to make these sort of decisions. Good fold.

I don't think it's out of bounds. Seems like table talk. People say stuff like 'I have the nuts' all he time and obv don't really mean it. He's not at showdown either.

Just a couple of things. First, you don't have a monster hand on the turn. In relative terms, it is no better than it was on the flop. The only hand you now beat is a pair of aces that you didn't beat on the flop. He almost never has aces in this situation. Trips are way different than sets.

I don't like the villain's turn line if he thinks you're decent. A FD isn't going to call that much on a paired board and trips look pretty weak to that shove. If he had bet 60BB on the turn, you'd call this and the river shove without thinking twice, even if the FD hits. If he thinks, "He's a donk, he's never folding trips in this situation," then it is fine.

I didn't mean to sound facetious. I actually mean good angle shoot: we got a proper read when all signs pointed to call. I just think it should be in OP as it does reveal more info that would change some people's responses.