Quote:
Originally Posted by eldiesel
^ Yeah he only needs to be good 32% of the time but when a guy who's moniker is "the definition of a calling station" takes the lead on a turn card that doesn't change the board texture, Hero will be good < 10% of the time.
KJhh/KThh/JThh are the only hands that gained equity with this turn card that might decide to lead out that we're still ahead of. And I don't know if any of those are raising from any position, let alone UTG+2.
V shows up with AQ/QQ/77 ~95% of the time.
What hand do you expect V to show up with 32% of the time that we're beating?
This is very smart but I think you have to widen Vs range to include a lot of Qxs holdings that would continue on the flop and now bet a pair and a flush draw. If KQs, QJs, QTs and Q9s are in Vs range, that's a lot more hands we can beat that would play this hand this way.
I would discount QQ from Vs range as even a calling station can fold QQ on this flop but I am afraid of AQ here. That said, we started the hand with 80bb.
110 in the pot pre flop, another 190 went in on the flop, so pot is 300. V bet 150 and we have 250 left. I think we're good here against Vs range, even if we more heavily weight AQ and all sets given V description, and that we are short stacked -- I gii. If stacks were deeper, I could more readily see folding.
As played, some posters have criticized the flop bet sizing. I like that size, esp given stack. You're setting up a PSB shove on turn, which with this flop and board, makes sense. A smaller bet might accomplish much the same result, but against a station, I like the bigger bet.