effective stack- 106

V- guy on my left, playing pretty snug, late 20's , fairly passive

1 limp in front of me

I raise to 16 in LP w/ AJs, V calls , other player calls


3 way to F: A58 (r); (48); I have BDFD here, x'd to me and I cb 30,


V shoves for 60 more, folded to me, Hero?

I lay it down.
Pot is now 138, costs you 60 to call, so you are getting just under 2.2 to 1 to call.
The early position guy is probably out, but let's give him a 5% chance of calling (he would probably have a set).
What does V have that you have beat here?
Ax (poor play).
67s and is shoving as a semi-bluff.
What does he likely have that beat you here?
AK, AQ. 88. 55. (although the sets would probably just smooth call and trap.
I'm putting him on AQ and letting his go without a second thought.

I just don't see him holding something I have beat 1/3 of the time.

I have found that pushing these marginal hands is a great way to lose money.
If you had AK then it's a much, much tougher lay down.

Wow. Tp3k a marginal hand. Bluff you all day long. Do not lay this down. Where does he get 138? 48 + 30 + 30 + 60 = 168. That's nearly 3 to 1 to see 2 cards. You have way more than 25 to 28% pot equity.

Ugh. Yeah, sorry, it's 168. So about 2.8 to 1.

I'm still probably laying this down per my previous post with bad math.
I can see a pot odds call here.

Good rule of thumb: if he can be value betting worse and you're getting a decent price, you have to call.

If he called your pf open with a hand like AT or A9 or A5s, you think he would fold on the flop with an effective stack size of like 50 BBs? Nope. Most players will just go with it.

You're getting an amazing price and he could be value betting worse so you have to call.

By the way, if you're folding AJ here, what hands are you calling with? Just AQ and AK. That's so exploitable! If I know you're making this many laydowns, I can start to bluff you with any two cards.

Good luck.

SPR 2 TPGK just calling it off

I've seen a lot of spots like this in 1/2 & 1/3, V has 2-pair+. Tough to fold, but I would most of the time. Also, don't worry about being exploitable in that game, unless it's someone you have logged a lot of hours with and you respect his play.

This board is better for your range than for the Vs range, so you should be c-betting 3ways with a lot of your range -- you might bet the flop as a bluff with your broadways with a backdoor flush draw (say, 12 combos) and some of your weaker pocket pairs that need protection, like: 66, 77, and 99-JJ (30 combos). Assuming that, you have roughly 40 combos of air or pairs less than Aces. For value, you have ATs, AJs, AQ, AK (30 combos), A5s (2 combos), 88, 55, AA (9 combos). Altogether you have about 40 combos of value. If you fold all of your air here, you'll already be folding half of your range, which is a lot. GTO says you should only fold 60/168 = 36% of your range.

Folding here would be super exploitative. We would need to have a very good read that Villain only raises with the nuts. If this is your first session playing with the guy, no way I can ever lay this down. OTOH if you have a lot of history with him and you know for a fact he's super tight, I can see an argument for folding.

this is never a fold

This is what I can’t stand about $100-145 at 1/2.
You are probably behind, but this would be a very bad fold imo.

appreciate the feedback , I agree with the consensus here, I know this hand is pretty standard

Results: I do the math in my head... call pretty quickly

V shows AKo..

This just makes me wonder if we can sometimes deviate from the norm when these players are so bad that they won't even 3b AK.

when running this through F-zilla .. it is slightly -EV in a worst case scenario, so folding seems impossible here,

I just don't know how many inferior AX I can put in his range, and I think he so bad that he wouldn't even rip it with 67s... and maybe flatting sometimes w/ weaker AX.. I know how dumb that sounds bc he would only have like a 1/2 psb left so he should be shoving or folding his whole range OTF here but these players don't understand this

A significant percentage of 1/2 players will not 3b anything other than QQ+, and some KK+. Heck a non-trivial percent will routinely limp with AK.

Snap call.

Calling is at worst a tiny mistake (like $5 - 8) against a reasonable range, while folding is a catastrophic mistake.

I know , it's crazy , I feel like it doesn't happen very often at 2/5 though or it at least happens less often

Call it off. Never folding at this point, and hand is fine.

There are quite a few players in my game who always limp/flat w/ AA/KK/QQ and especially AK/AQ.

@tmo1120

Please let us know the position of the callers next time. If they were in the SB or BB it certainly impacts our assessment of their pre-flop ranges.

Thanks!!

I've seen results but would have said same anyway.
pot odds and ev are based on V's range
your read of V can narrow V's range
if you are confident in your read then easy fold; you beat nothing.

others will choose to ignore your read of V and give generic easy call answer.

If V's range is AA AK AQ 55 88 and maybe AJ is it still an auto call ?

hand reading ability separates the small winners from the consistent big ones

and yes with no read and roughly 3-1 I would call

I'm not putting AA in his range.. I felt AKs would 3b and AKo should 3b about half the time.. so some Ak and all the AQ... its hard to determine if he ships here with all the AT.. and maybe A9s … A8s is 2p... if I can peg him on AQ/AK or better than the equity isn't even close.. I do have BDFD so that's somewhat relevant .. I've made some sick folds in my day .. this one is tough bc he has such a short stack so if he flops TP he should just go w/ it . same should be said for his 67s...

It's funny bc he flats AK here and then later in the session he snap 3b's me with AQos when I open w/ AK.. I think he was tilted at that time a bit .. and my image was crazy cuz I ran a crazy bluff

This. Yeah. Believe me, I love the 3-1 odds and I have no problem with a call here based on pot odds, but on just reading the hand in a bubble of this thread, my head has him on range of the poster above, along with "maybe" 67s. So, yeah, with my read, in this bubble, I fold as I think he can't have anything I have beat.

I get the comment that "you can be exploited", but that's where read of V and how he has been playing comes in. So, pure math, this is a call. If you asked me what a "typical player" has here, I'm folding it.

All that being said, I'm pretty tight and have a low variance. I probably get pushed off the occasional winning hand, but I rarely get it all in when I'm dominated and then get my stack ruined with only a 3 outer left (or worse he has a set and it's over).

So, I have no quibble with a call her, but I don't think it's a snap call if you have a good read on V's range being AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQ, AJ, 88, 55 here.

In my head, I think if I call here, he is flipping over AQ and I'm