Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe8805
would you say that I am not getting proper odds to call this? It's about 2 to one by my math which means I need to be good roughly a third of the time. Is unknown villian bluffing much less than a third of the time?
Yes, it is very unusual for an unknown villain to check/raise a cbet on an ace-high flop with no obvious draws without AQ+. With weaker top pair hands they would typically just call.
Our pot odds are 66 / (66 + 66 + 82) = 31%
Unless, we have specific info suggesting he is playing crazy our equity looks like this:
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
AsJs | 9.97% | 56 | 81 |
AK,AQ,Ah5c,Ac5c,6c5c,6h5h,5h5c,5c4c,5h4h | 90.03% | 831 | 81 |
If our equity is lower than our pot odds we should fold.
While its of course theoretically possible he could be making the play with a weaker ace or complete air, in practice that would not be the kind of play we witness very often.
If we have a specific reason to believe villain is choosing this very odd spot to bluff then of course our equity in the hand goes up. How much depends on how crazy we think he's playing.