Hey all,

This is a hand my friend played, we have been discussing it and i think there are some interesting spots, so thought i'd share for wider thoughts.

$1/3, $500 effective, no real reads on Villain.

Folds to hero in MP, raises to $10 with AJ, folds to BTN who calls, blinds fold.

$24 KJ2

Hero bets $15, BTN calls.

$54 7

Hero checks, Villain bets $45, Hero calls.

$144 K

Hero checks, Villain bets $90, Hero..

My thoughts are villains calling range pre is super wide on the button for $10. All PPs, suited connectors, gappers, unsuited connectors, all broadways, Ax hands etc. but also capped. No JJ+, AQ+ mostly.

Flop bet seems standard. Villains calling range is still pretty wide. All Kx hands, Jx hands, QT, some gutshots with a like AxQh, AxTh, 9xTh, heart draws like TJ, T9, 98, 78 etc. However with the Ah we block a lot of flush draws and probably has calling range at medium strength pair/drawy hands.

Turn is interesting, on one hand the Ah gives us more ability to check call and we'd be more inclined to barrel AJ, but it also gives us further equity so I think barrelling makes sense as we can be called by some worse hands and doesnt let villain check behind and see the river for free.

So first question - does the A make us more or less inclined to bet turn?

Next most interesting spot is facing the turn bet. Feels like if we call and draw to a flush we're not getting paid a lot, if anything at. Most of the time we're going to miss, check and be faced with a tough call on the river, which we will have to call a portion of the time.

We were discussing the merits of check raising this turn to say $140. We are deep enough to raise here and fold to a shove if we wanted to but that also seems to suck. Feels like villains range is going to contain a heap of medium pair type hands or drawy hands that will fold a large portion of the time to a check raise here to make this +EV for sure.

So second question is peoples view of maximum EV play on the turn (assuming we have checked) check/call or check/raise (yes GG, or check fold).

Third discussion point was calling the river given we need to be good 28% of the time to break even. I think V has following value range: KQ (8), KJ (6), KT (8), Flushes (ill give 6 combos), and a full house 22 (3). So 31 combos. Given 2.6:1 we'd need 12 combos of bluffs. QT has 16 combos alone plus maybe AxTh and AxQh type hands, and some times V bets a J here for value. Given we're holding the A and block a lot of flush holdings we thought this was a call. Thoughts?

Think it's well played and a call OTR if V is capable/aggro. It's tough when you have no reads on him. A standard LLSNL V is very polarized here OTR (22, flush, air).

There are certain V's I would continue betting OTT even with the Ah, but a lot of the time you'd hate to get blown off your equity by a raise

Typically checking flop here. In isolation you could argue a bet is fine but it's bloating the pot from OOP where V's calling range is probably about on par with our hand, and if you want a street of value you can pick one up later.

Don't have a strong opinion on turn. I think betting and checking are both fine. I'm more inclined to bet turn with the Ah because I have more equity and they're less likely to have a flush.

River is very close. The way the hand has played out it seems like it should be a call, but I'm not sure how many bluffs villain actually has here because to him, our line probably looks like it's either a king or air. 90 is also kind of suspicious sizing, I mean he may as well make it 99.

Agree that you can check the flop, looking to c/c if V bets a reasonable size. With middle pair OOP on a wet board, you're not looking for 3 streets. Small hand, small pot applies here.

AP I think you can peel turn and evaluate river, with the NFD. You have ~10 out (two jacks, 8 hearts, maybe 9 if he doesn't have a FD). OTR, I think I let this go without a better read. He would have needed to blast off two streets with a draw and (then) a busted draw OR be value-betting a worse J, which doesn't seem likely. Without a read that he's capable of these pretty good moves, I think you can just give up on the river.

I would dump AJo in MP but we somehow managed to get this HU (albeit OOP, a huge downside that can't be ignored) with a lol $10 open, so whatever I guess.

I'm cool with the flop bet. We charge draws, there's a decent chance we're best, we have outs if not. ETA: Also cool with checking for reasons others suggest, it's either/or, imo.

One of the main reasons I don't like preflop is that there is just too good a chance we end up OOP. Position is important in poker, and yet I feel in general most people just give it lip service. We have the nut draw and the nut second pair (which may be useless), but thanks to being OOP we're being put in a very tough spot of having to pay a big bet to see the river. And are things going to get any easier on the river if we whiff? Position would have made this hand miles easier to play (where we likely get to check back the turn and try to hit our hand for free, controlling the size of the pot, and setting up a trivial bluffcatch).

I find turn/river very tough spots and I'm not convinced I can make them very EV with my skillset (your skillset may think otherwise). So I try to avoid this spot, which really goes all the way back to preflop (don't build pots OOP, imo).

Glostontheturn/riverG

River seems like a pretty standard call as played. Strongly prefer checking flop.

Bigger pre

Flop seems like a clear xc

Turn ap is fine, raising accomplishes nothing. If hes spazzing let him continue, if he has you crushed you’re putting in money as an underdog

River I think it’s better to rip or fold tbh. Probably just folding, bc we are deep this overbet jam is going to have to work a huge % of the time, i think a little less deep x/jam isnt terrible.In game tho a little less deep i prob just fold cuz i dont want to torch my stack and get called down by Kx/any flush lol. Nut best bluffing hand but in practice it’s most likely -EV.

I definitely agree with everyone who said to check the flop. A cbet here bloats the pot unnecessarily and accomplishes nothing: few worse hands will call while you are never folding out a K. You're also never comfortable charging draws with 2nd pair; you need to give a free card somewhere, and the flop is usually the best place.

Not sure I understand why you say this. We have a good bluffcatcher, and the K on the river actually raises our SDV because it removes combos of Kx that villain may have. I'm not sure why you advocate turning 2nd pair here into a bluff by jamming.

In any case, I'm definitely leaning towards a fold on the river. I don't see a J betting for value; the big turn bet is actually very polarizing. I think villain would definitely check behind with a J to try to get to SD cheaply, and very possibly checking a K too because you could be check/calling a K with the heart hitting OTT, and as the opener who cbet the flop, you should have stronger K's in your range than he does. I think villain's value range is actually higher than what you've assumed.

There are a decent number of straight draw bluffs, so it's not the worst call in the world, but you want to know that villain is capable of bluffing 2 streets here. Plenty of 1/3 players way underbluff the river. I think the turn and river bets are value heavy, and you are not beating any of villain's value range.

Preflop is fine with me.

Flop I'm ok with, but I sometimes find I cbet too much, and want to train myself to c/c more often when OOP rather than leading with second pair.

On the turn I'm ok with the check. Is willingness to call the flop bet strongly says XhXh or a king to me, both of which have us beat. (possibly 22, but that seems unlikely) No reason to put money in now. His near pot size bet though makes me think a king is more likely than a flush, trying to push out one heart hands (like ours).

You don't have direct odds to draw to the heart. You have no implied odds really (if he has a KX hand and no hearts, he won't put more money in on a 4th heart or Ace river).

You made a valiant play, but the odds aren't there to call hunting the flush draw. Fold turn.

I didn't advocate turning our pair into a bluff by jamming, I just said it might be better to jam vs fold. I still said I would probably fold.

With the J blocker and Ah blocker, he shouldn't have too many strong hands to call a jam and if he bets K7-K10, KQ otr, he's in a world of pain vs a shove. On paper it sounds cool but in practice i'd most likely never pull the trigger and just fold river, or if i wanted to not fold I'd just call since it's lower variance line lol.