A - Table changing from what you think is a bad table is smart. Nice job!
B - How many limpers were in the pot before you raised? obviously if you were BB there were at least 4. Some people develop a standard opening raise and then ad a chip or two for each limper. I don't do it as with a predefined formula but I sort of look at the ragtag gang of limpers and make a determination of what the right amount is to get one or two of them to call. It's not a perfect science but especially out of position we want to keep the field manageable. At the 1/2 games in my room I'd usually open for $12... over 4 limpers id bump to 15 - 17. Winning 8 or 10 bucs from the blinds with an A and a J in your hand is not a terrible outcome if everyone folds BTW.
C - If you are new to the table and not a regular in the room you won't have reads on your opponents. But in the absence of any reads, even "Old Lady" "Old Man Coffee looking guy with a history channel basebal cap on", "Asian kid with hoodie on", while stereotypes can be at least a little bit helpful.
Was the guy you barbecued with the nut flush one of the limpers? What were the details of that hand? it could be pertinent since the 4 callers all saw it play out and its the only info they have on you.
D - Yes there is luck in poker... it is a gambling game after all. However, the cards nor the shuffle machine know you nor your history of bad luck with top two pair. And besides you sucked out on some dude one hand ago
so two pair bad luck isn't a reason to bet. The fact that you have flopped fantastic... Top Two on a nice wet board with 4 limp/callers.... there is a reason to bet.
E - Something to consider... do you really want the flush draws or straight draws to fold? Or do you want them to pay you a lot of money? It is true that when the draws (or any hand for that matter) fold their equity you are profiting by that amount. However, often the biggest sources of profit will be from draws paying too much to chase. So consider trying to look at possible draws as sources of value not only as threats to your hand. They are threats to be sure but this change in thinking will go a long way.
So Ac Jh 9c, there are no flopped straights. QT is OESD, KT, KQ are gutters the club suited combos of those hands are not folding to any reasonable bet. KJcc QJcc TJcc have a pair a flush and a back door sd. They are not folding. A9 is of course not folding. AK and AQ is unlikely since they all limped. So Ax hands will mostly be ragged ones that might even tend to fold before a lot of the draws. So the idea that you will fold the draws and keep in the worse aces is not completely realistic. Yes the better Aces will call and the worst of the draws might fold but the more important idea know what little we know at this point is that there is a good chance someone has something they will be willing to call with. Yes 99 has us beat but at least some folks would raise that coming in and we have outs even against that. So we are betting from a position of absolute strength and a goal of value extraction. Even with this bloated pot, stacks are deep enough that should we have to get away from our hand on the turn we can. A decent bet for value here will not commit us yet.
So I would go ahead and bet between 3/4 to full pot here leaning toward full pot since we really can't range these unknowns very well. If the first guy calls he could bring along others who will get better odds but I'd assume someone has a sizeable piece of this flop so we want to get value here.
I'd bet $45-55
Last edited by cAmmAndo; 08-03-2015 at 07:42 PM.