This is gambler's fallacy (mean reversion) at its finest.

This is gonna sound harsh but imho from your points in your first post you're not ready for 5/10. I'd recommend only shot taking a 5/10 game that is the super softest game ever and I'm not sure if you'd be able to identify those games correctly.

If you do end up taking a shot the best advice you're gonna get is to not be afraid to go back down to lower stakes if you lose that shot otherwise you will go busto almost guaranteed (from my personal experience of players in similar situations and myself)

5/10 at the Gardens has been looking extra soft recently. The three winning pros that used to clean up that game have been out of the mix for a while. One seems to be grinding the Bike as of late, not sure where the other two are.

Haven't been to commerce in a while, but hear the Euros are as plentiful as ever. One thing that has going for it though is table selection and no straddles. Although the Gardens game looks juicy, you might find yourself playing 5/10/20 which requires a much larger BR.

The logical progression IMO from the $600 cap jumps to Hustler/Bike $1k 5/5, then Commerce 5/10, then the 5/10 at Gardens b/c of straddles, then finally 5/10 at HP, Bike, or Hustler where you're deep even with straddles. I'd also second Jarretman's point regarding your past posts, but if your BR is healthy and you're not permanently switching over, at worst you'll get a pricey lesson. Just try to play your best and not think about the money. First few go-rounds you might be a bit "shy" and leave some value on the table/not bluff when you should. At least, that's what I experienced.

This is pretty much it. The jump from 5/5 to 5/10 is often much bigger than people realize (money wise, not skill). Games often end up playing much bigger than they expect. Even if you sit down with 100bb you will often double (or triple up) and end up playing some big, deep pots that you had no intention of playing.

That's all I meant about gross spots...many more deep, 600+bb pots than you'd find in a smaller game.

I think some of these replies are unfair. OP clearly says he's not moving up permanently, just moving up to take a shot. If he's crushing 5/5 that much I don't get why some are so critical of taking a shot, regardless of what you're currently working on. He's stated he's prepared to lose a capped amount and it will be a learning experience either way.

I think the most resounding point is that a 35-hour heater is irrelevant. It’s not a remotely meaningful sample size and this is how people bust their bankroll. Have an extended heater for 3 or 6 months and then take your shot.

Noted, but he's prepared to donk off a set amount and is asking for advice... I understand some cautionary advice, but some of the replies seemed more critical than warranted. Whatever

Two posters I always respect.

MikeStarr said "...and when the distribution of cards goes against him (reversion to the mean)..."

It is possible to understand "statistical reversion to the mean", and to also understand that "the cards don't remember what happened before".

They are not mutually exclusive.

It is also possible to understand "why move up when we are in a downswing" vs "reversion to the mean should help if we move up" is also illogical.

Yes, move up when our confidence is high rather than when it is low, BUT it is because when we are confident (as opposed to Phil Helmuth "know it all" mode) we are probably going to make better decisions.

Thanks for all the advice guys! First shot will be tomorrow evening, then Fri/Sat night for a few hours and maybe also Sunday depending on how I'm running and how I feel. Will update here with results, good or bad.

Not harsh at all, I respect and appreciate the honesty. What about my OP makes me sound fishy?

I've played 5/5 at the Bike quite a few times, buying in for the max. Played a handful of $3k+ pots, so I don't feel like I'll be playing with scared money in a 1500max game. Going to just play super nitty at first and observe the good players and expand my game from there.

I think some should cut OP a break. He never said he's moving up to 5/10, nor did he point to his recent 5/5 heater as evidence that he can reasonably expect to beat 5/10 long-term. He seems to have his situation in perspective, and in a decent spot to shot-take. I'm all for someone testing themselves and playing larger if it's done with solid guidelines and reasonable expectations, which is what OP appears to be doing. In Poker as in life, we don't grow or achieve goals unless we take some chances. I think OPs in a great spot to take this type of shot with enough of a BR cushion to ensure he's not scared money, or is taking on a high risk of ruin.

So I just recently moved up to 5/T myself. I was on a bigger heater than you haha... and my initial 5/T jump wasnt that big (2/5/1k max to a 5/T/1500 max in vegas, local casino is 2500 max) and my heater has continued, up 15k in 44 hours at 5/T (and that even includes a 4k downswing to start so up more like 19k in 25 hrs or so as far as current heater)

One of the big differences Ive seen at my local casino is its a more “gambler” atomsphere. Like, first time I played everyone was agreed to a $25 straddle, and had agreed that one guy pays the entire time rake based on the first card that hits the first flop the new dealer deals.

At various times people wanted to like... all toss $50 into the pot and check down to see who wins.

Also a dude sat down, tried to buy in for far more than the max, and regs tried to up the game to 10/25 which I resisted, he said game was too cheap, people said lets straddle and he said ok. Dude ended up blasting like 10k into the table in like 30 hands and left.

Id say dont be a nit, and be prepared to be playing for a decent amount more than double 2/5. Id say go in with 1 buyin, and move down again if you bust and try again the next day rinse repeat a few times.

As far as the “sick spots” people mentioned, I was playing 5/10(/25) first time, was way up, had this hand:

Had 77, raised to 75, 3 callers.
Flop JJ9, i cbet, 2 callers
Turn 7, check, i check it to try to get a bet but he checks,

River 4. Pot was 675, i bet $500, V behind folds, Other V check/raises me to $3100 (still has another $1500 behind). I called and he had T8 for a straight and he lost, but was still pretty sick to be in a overbet check raised on the river 7k pot with a far from nuts hand.

I honestly prolly woulda been crapping myself that day but I basically sat down with 2k and kissed it goodbye expecting to be back at 2/5 soon. Dont be scared money, is easier said than done, and I still wonder if I didnt shove the last 1500 into that pot i mentioned because i was scared money. At this point I have enough 5/T money to stay for a while and get a big enough sample size to see if im actually a winner at this level.

Good post Tomark.

Everyone chiding OP like 5/10 players are end bosses and don't have any leaks, wtf.

My 2 cents on the original post:

First point is pretty good don't overdo it. Ratio of like 3:1 or 4:1 or so value to bluff imo.
Second point you should probably have been doing that at 5/5 a lot.
Third point is pretty huge, semi bluffing using a stack-a-donk line is pretty legit vs bet/folders.
Fourth point is rolled into third point.
Fifth point probably not totally necessary but cool as a once in a while thing, let them know you'll play a big pot in random situations.

This is all true, but if OP is a winner at 5/5 and I have no reason to believe hes not, I wouldnt change ANYTHING from his game at first. Give it 50-100 hours before making whatever adjustments he think he needs to make.

Back in the day when I played online, as I moved up I always tried to make adjustments, bluff more, float more..ect...and I always got owned by players who I thought would be trickier but were the same ABC players I was used to at lower stakes. I would move back down...crush again..then move up and stop doing stupid **** that I wasnt good at yet. That always worked for me.

Good luck with your shot-take! Looking forward to the trip report. I think moving up when confident/running good is certainly better than another other time. Just don't go in expecting to get outplayed every hand by sick end bosses, and don't start overdoing light 3-bets and exotic floats, etc. Stay focused, friendly, and make good decisions.

I would consider taking a first shot at a new stake on a friday or saturday night but im excited to hear how it goes.

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Haha, I always did the same thing MikeStarr. Didn't matter if it was limit or NL, I'd move up stakes thinking everyone is going to be extra tricky and sticky so I should be that way myself … we all know how that goes!

This is true, and Im playing exactly the same, but thats partially because i made adjustments at 2/5... like, if you dont have a bluff 4 betting range thats a problem, not from a balance perspective, but from the perspective that 2/5+ regs 3 bet bluff way too wide and fold to 4 bets way too wide (typically exploitatively) so you ought to at least do ir once to get them to cut it out. It costs you just as much at 2/5 as 5/T.