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Old 10-18-2016, 01:23 PM   #1
I_Cant_Win
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AdQd on the button with HJ open repost

I made some mistakes that were confusing so here is a repost

AQ on the button with HJ open
HJ villain opens to 12 (stack of 150)
Hero button calls AQ (stack of 125)
SB folds
BB calls

37 in the pot
Flop comes 48Q

BB leads 25
HJ min raises to 50
Hero jams for 113
BB folds
HJ calls

From a post flop perspective was it an error to jam? Obviously if I was a full starting stack I would never jam with top pair top kicker in this spot but I might heavily considered re raising the min raise but is that also an error?

From the previous responses I got I could guess the replies that might follow this post

I would have been better off raising the open with my AQ and isolating and seeing what the HJ would do. If he jammed I would make an easy fold with my AQ and I don't lose a penny more. In hind sight I believe raising the open would have gotten me to save about 47 big blinds.

Any thoughts on improvements? Or pretty much unavoidable if I flat preflop and see top pair top kicker.

If I was deeper I would have called his min raise and turned the nut flush draw, obviously I missed but if he jams on the turn after I flat the flop min raise I'm pretty much committed I think looking at the effective stack

He ended up having KK

Any other way to play this situation better than to raise the open from the HJ?
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Old 10-18-2016, 01:42 PM   #2
Avaritia
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Re: AdQd on the button with HJ open repost

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Originally Posted by I_Cant_Win View Post
I would have been better off raising the open with my AQ and isolating and seeing what the HJ would do. If he jammed I would make an easy fold with my AQ and I don't lose a penny more. In hind sight I believe raising the open would have gotten me to save about 47 big blinds.
Several leaks in your game but this one is big. You are essentially asking if you should have raised to see where you were at (bad) and you are being results oriented saying you would have known to fold to his 4b and saved money (bad).

The reason to 3b is for value or bluff. AQs is a great flatting hand because it keeps in many dominated hands (AJ/T/9/etc, KQ/QJ/etc) and the suit often gives you at least backdoor equity (as it did in this hand)

Many people look down at AQs and auto 3b bc "lol AQs" and they're just missing out on alot of value.

The times you want to 3b it are vs wide opens and/or wide calling ranges as you are still 3bing for fat value.

Aso for post flop, HJ's raise on the flop is very strong. But you have 60bbs and tptk so there's not much more you can do than felt.
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Old 10-18-2016, 02:58 PM   #3
I_Cant_Win
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Re: AdQd on the button with HJ open repost

So to clarify the reasoning for my 3bet is flaw and my result oriented look is a leak in this scenario?
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Old 10-18-2016, 03:57 PM   #4
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Re: AdQd on the button with HJ open repost

Villain makes it $12 in HJ which means he may have a wide range preflop. However, the flop minraise removes significant percentage of the mediocre hands from his range IMO. It is a raise that will allow him to jam the turn. From my experience, small stakes players won't min raise the flop unless they really like their hand.

You didn't give info about this guy. So I don't know what hands this guy may like on this flop but either way with a donk bet and a minraise before you AQ can't be in a great shape. It's a very good flop for AQ but the action isn't ideal. (If the HJ villain is an absolute maniac, I would jam)
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Old 10-18-2016, 04:15 PM   #5
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Re: AdQd on the button with HJ open repost

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Originally Posted by I_Cant_Win View Post
So to clarify the reasoning for my 3bet is flaw and my result oriented look is a leak in this scenario?
You do not 3b for information. That is wasting the value of AQs, and the object of poker is to maximize value.

Either villain is tight, and you flat AQs because it plays better keeping his already tight range past wide as possible.

Or villain is loose and a calling station, in which case you can 3b for value bc his opening range and calling range are both wide and AQs is way ahead of them.

There is a good deal to it beyond that but that's as far as I'm going for now.

Being results oriented means "if I would have raised he would have 4b and I could have folded"

You can't think about poker like that. Villain has many hands that will do many things.
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Old 10-18-2016, 04:16 PM   #6
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Re: AdQd on the button with HJ open repost

It's tough to fold TPTK with SPR < 3. But, let's think about each player's range.

BB could lead out with any number of TP hands - people lead a lot when they have a medium-strength hand OOP and aren't sure what to do. We can definitely call vs them.

However: HJ's minraise on this board looks like massive strength, or a bluff. Stack sizes are getting tiny compared to the pot - is HJ ever going to fold on future streets with <1psb left? I doubt it.

HJ's strong value range looks like: 88, sometimes 44, QQ, AA-KK. HJ should only rarely have 56 or 67 or 57 for gutshots, and probably wouldn't minraise with AQ, KQ or QJ (the most likely TP hands they have after raising pre). HJ shouldn't have many bluffs here, especially with the IP player left to act.

You're getting a price of 50 to win 37 + 25 + 50 = 112 and need ~24% equity. However, calling the 50 commits our stack so we can disregard our immediate odds.

This feels like a fold. If HJ shows up with KQ or QJ here, or a stone bluff, we know for the future that he'll overplay TPWK or is a bluffing maniac and can call him down accordingly.

Edit: Read your questions + results. This hand is a clear flat IP for all the reasons Avaritia said.
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Old 10-18-2016, 06:36 PM   #7
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Re: AdQd on the button with HJ open repost

Definitely flat AQ pf in position.

I can't say I really blame you for getting it in with a short stack and TPTK, but I think the donk bet and then raise with you behind shows enough strength to find a hero fold and get out of there with only $12 invested.

Assuming the BB folds and HJ calls our shove, we are shoving $113 to win $293 which is 38.6% of the final pot. So we need ~40% equity against V's range to make this a profitable shove.

Say HJ's range that makes the raise and stacks off vs a 3Bet is:

44/88(6 combos, 2% equity), QQ(1 combo, 0.3%), KK(6 combos), AA(6 combos), KQs/Q8s(4 combos, 87%)

Vs this range, which I think is generous in our favour, we have 23.1% equity for an EV of -$45 on the shove.
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Old 10-18-2016, 07:56 PM   #8
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Re: AdQd on the button with HJ open repost

Hey Nelson I know this may be a silly question but just to clear up the math
We take his range of hands he is making this min raise with, we add up the equity of those hands vs our hands and we get the value of 23.1% and we look at our shove and find 38.6% shove. We take his range of equities added - our % bet of the pot than multiply this value to the pot size. Am I correct? I'm a bit new to the math behind ranges and adding up equities. It seems that I would need to be well versed in equities vs our hand and doing some quick math. Is this kind of math done on the fly during the hand? Looks like a daunting task, but obviously worth it.
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Old 10-18-2016, 08:12 PM   #9
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Re: AdQd on the button with HJ open repost

Definitely flat AQ pf in position.

I can't say I really blame you for getting it in with a short stack and TPTK, but I think the donk bet and then raise with you behind shows enough strength to find a hero fold and get out of there with only $12 invested.

Assuming the BB folds and HJ calls our shove, we are shoving $113 to win $293 which is 38.6% of the final pot. So we need ~40% equity against V's range to make this a profitable shove.

Say HJ's range that makes the raise and stacks off vs a 3Bet is:

44/88(6 combos, 2% equity), QQ(1 combo, 0.3%), KK(6 combos, 20%), AA(6 combos, 8.6%), KQs/Q8s(4 combos, 87%)

Vs this range, which I think is generous in our favour, we have 23.1% equity for an EV of -$45 on the shove.

Sorry I forgot to include the equities of AA and KK in my post for some reason.
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Old 10-18-2016, 08:13 PM   #10
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Re: AdQd on the button with HJ open repost

Garick just explained it to me in a previous post where I gave the range:

KJs(4), AJs(4), AJo(4), AK(1), AQ(1), JT(1), JJ(3), 44(1), 33(1), AA(2), KK(2)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Without commenting on your range, here is how to do the equity calc:

To do the whole thing, we'd also have to estimate our FE, but let's just assume he always calls a shove.

We are talking about shoving $135 into a final pot of $395. The quick and easy way to do this if we're assuming he always calls is to figure out what percent of the pot you are paying (135/395=34.18%) and that is the amount of equity you need against his range. If your equity is greater, the shove is profitable. Against that range, we are 53.53%, so it's +EV even without dead money. We are "entitled to" $211.44 from the pot, minus our $135 investment, it's a positive EV of $76.44.

The more complex version is that:
12/24 (50%) of the time we win ~80% (by your estimate, actually 77.88%) of $395, or $307.63. Subtract our $135 investment and we get 172.63. As mentioned this happens 50%(.5) of the time, so our EV is 172.63*.5 = $86.32

9/24 (37.5%) we win ~5% (actually 9.91%) of $395, or $39.15 - $135 = negative $95.85*.375=-35.95

3/24 (12.5%) of the time, we win ~50% (actually 76.42%) of $395, or $301.15-135=166.15*.125=$20.77

That means our total EV is 86.32+20.77-35.95=$71.15

There's probably some small error in my carry overs there to explain the small difference in the simple versus full versions of the EV calcs, since we're assuming he never folds, but I'm not going to re-do the whole thing to see why it came out a bit different.

The important part is that you 1) see how it's done and 2) see that it's not "small + or - ev whether we shove or fold flop." It's a huge +EV if we assume your exact range.
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Old 10-18-2016, 08:17 PM   #11
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Re: AdQd on the button with HJ open repost

Quote:
Originally Posted by I_Cant_Win View Post
Hey Nelson I know this may be a silly question but just to clear up the math
We take his range of hands he is making this min raise with, we add up the equity of those hands vs our hands and we get the value of 23.1% and we look at our shove and find 38.6% shove. We take his range of equities added - our % bet of the pot than multiply this value to the pot size. Am I correct? I'm a bit new to the math behind ranges and adding up equities. It seems that I would need to be well versed in equities vs our hand and doing some quick math. Is this kind of math done on the fly during the hand? Looks like a daunting task, but obviously worth it.
No silly questions when trying to learn.

yeah poker stove is probably more accurate but I just took the mean of our equities vs his range.

We are comparing our equity vs his range to the % of the final pot our bet costs. If our equity is > the % cost it's + EV. If it's < the cost, then it's - EV.

This math isn't really done on the fly, but if you practice it off the table a lot, it starts to become intuitive during the game when making decisions.
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Old 10-18-2016, 08:20 PM   #12
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Re: AdQd on the button with HJ open repost

Quote:
Originally Posted by NelsonWelson View Post
Definitely flat AQ pf in position.

I can't say I really blame you for getting it in with a short stack and TPTK, but I think the donk bet and then raise with you behind shows enough strength to find a hero fold and get out of there with only $12 invested.
It doesn't matter how much money we've already invested. I think hero fold is okay, though. If he was going to bluff why wouldn't he shove? Min-raises like this are generally pretty strong coming from the pre-flop raiser.

Quote:
Assuming the BB folds and HJ calls our shove, we are shoving $113 to win $293 which is 38.6% of the final pot. So we need ~40% equity against V's range to make this a profitable shove.

Say HJ's range that makes the raise and stacks off vs a 3Bet is:

44/88(6 combos, 2% equity), QQ(1 combo, 0.3%), KK(6 combos), AA(6 combos), KQs/Q8s(4 combos, 87%)

Vs this range, which I think is generous in our favour, we have 23.1% equity for an EV of -$45 on the shove.
How is this generous in our favor? You only gave him 4 combos that we beat.

Also, you have to account for card removal when counting combos. It looks like you did with some hands but not with others. It's 3 combos of AA, 2 of KQs and 1 of Q8s.

I don't think Q8s is a common open from the HJ.

We have 21.67% equity against that range. Your equities are off.
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Old 10-18-2016, 11:02 PM   #13
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Re: AdQd on the button with HJ open repost

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Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
It doesn't matter how much money we've already invested. I think hero fold is okay, though. If he was going to bluff why wouldn't he shove? Min-raises like this are generally pretty strong coming from the pre-flop raiser.



How is this generous in our favor? You only gave him 4 combos that we beat.

Also, you have to account for card removal when counting combos. It looks like you did with some hands but not with others. It's 3 combos of AA, 2 of KQs and 1 of Q8s.

I don't think Q8s is a common open from the HJ.

We have 21.67% equity against that range. Your equities are off.
Yeah i made a mistake you're right thanks. Trying to practice equity calculations, it's been a while.

I don't think Q8s is a common open either, that's why I said it's a generous range in our favour. I couldn't think of any other hands that could be in there that we are beating.
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Old 10-19-2016, 01:48 AM   #14
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Re: AdQd on the button with HJ open repost

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Originally Posted by NelsonWelson View Post
Yeah i made a mistake you're right thanks. Trying to practice equity calculations, it's been a while.

I don't think Q8s is a common open either, that's why I said it's a generous range in our favour. I couldn't think of any other hands that could be in there that we are beating.
We aren't beating Q8
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Old 10-19-2016, 05:18 AM   #15
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Re: AdQd on the button with HJ open repost

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We aren't beating Q8
lol what a mess... care to give a range then?
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Old 10-19-2016, 08:36 AM   #16
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Re: AdQd on the button with HJ open repost

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Originally Posted by NelsonWelson View Post
Definitely flat AQ pf in position.

I can't say I really blame you for getting it in with a short stack and TPTK, but I think the donk bet and then raise with you behind shows enough strength to find a hero fold and get out of there with only $12 invested.

Assuming the BB folds and HJ calls our shove, we are shoving $113 to win $293 which is 38.6% of the final pot. So we need ~40% equity against V's range to make this a profitable shove.

Say HJ's range that makes the raise and stacks off vs a 3Bet is:

44/88(6 combos, 2% equity), QQ(1 combo, 0.3%), KK(6 combos, 20%), AA(6 combos, 8.6%), KQs/Q8s(4 combos, 87%)

Vs this range, which I think is generous in our favour, we have 23.1% equity for an EV of -$45 on the shove.

Sorry I forgot to include the equities of AA and KK in my post for some reason.
Not necessarily true. There are some REALLY tight players who almost never raise preflop. I folded AQs preflop to a guy like that yesterday and showed down KK.

So I would say in this spot

Call vs most players
3 bet vs some loose aggro players
Fold vs the most tight rocks
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Old 10-19-2016, 11:03 AM   #17
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Re: AdQd on the button with HJ open repost

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Not necessarily true. There are some REALLY tight players who almost never raise preflop. I folded AQs preflop to a guy like that yesterday and showed down KK.

So I would say in this spot

Call vs most players
3 bet vs some loose aggro players
Fold vs the most tight rocks
Yeah I agree with that 100%. I think in this specific hand though I 100% prefer a flat pre.
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Old 10-19-2016, 12:06 PM   #18
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Re: AdQd on the button with HJ open repost

I realize it depends on the villain(s) but why would AQs not wish to 3bet pre on the button? Wouldn't it be getting value from worse Aces and dominated Q's? especially at a soft 1/2 game? Also wouldn't it lower the number of players involved in the pot which essentially increase our equity with AQs on the button?
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Old 10-19-2016, 02:47 PM   #19
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Re: AdQd on the button with HJ open repost

That is the worst board to be jamming on the flop. There are no draws and one player showing he is willing to get it in ASAP. A little nitty but I don't like calling and I don't like shvoing, so i think that leave making a weak / tight fold...

we only invested $12 at this point. Leave the pot alone and fight for another one. We will fold the best hand a very small percentage of the time to a nut raising kq or something...
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Old 10-20-2016, 12:27 PM   #20
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Re: AdQd on the button with HJ open repost

When one opponent leads 25 -> 37 OTF and then the other (IR) min raises him, TPTK is generally no good regardless of your stack size. (fold)
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Old 10-20-2016, 02:41 PM   #21
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Re: AdQd on the button with HJ open repost

you shouldnt be 3b pre with AQs, it seems a little bit light. if you guys have a good history together then maybe I could see an argument for doing it but as played its fine. on the flop I think I'm always getting it in here with TPTK with such a short stack.
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Old 10-20-2016, 03:42 PM   #22
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Re: AdQd on the button with HJ open repost

Quote:
Originally Posted by champagnepapi View Post
you shouldnt be 3b pre with AQs, it seems a little bit light.
I Disagree..

You should not be raising with that stack, but AdQd is def. a raising hand on the button with the action listed in the post...
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Old 10-20-2016, 05:14 PM   #23
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Re: AdQd on the button with HJ open repost

is AQs always a 3b vs highjack in what I assume is 1/2 or 1/3? I think its dependent on the villain's image and history with the hero. If deeper we might be able to justify a 3b. I'm genuinely curious as to why you think this is a 3b.
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Old 10-20-2016, 06:06 PM   #24
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Re: AdQd on the button with HJ open repost

Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Several leaks in your game but this one is big. You are essentially asking if you should have raised to see where you were at (bad) and you are being results oriented saying you would have known to fold to his 4b and saved money (bad).

The reason to 3b is for value or bluff. AQs is a great flatting hand because it keeps in many dominated hands (AJ/T/9/etc, KQ/QJ/etc) and the suit often gives you at least backdoor equity (as it did in this hand)

Many people look down at AQs and auto 3b bc "lol AQs" and they're just missing out on alot of value.

The times you want to 3b it are vs wide opens and/or wide calling ranges as you are still 3bing for fat value.

Aso for post flop, HJ's raise on the flop is very strong. But you have 60bbs and tptk so there's not much more you can do than felt.
all of this.

I 3! AQ OOP against laggy players that open in late position. otherwise, it is a really bad hand when you are playing more than 100 BB deep. Its a great hand when you are 25 BB deep.

and as short as you were, it is extremely hard to get away from it once you flop toptop
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Old 10-20-2016, 07:09 PM   #25
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Re: AdQd on the button with HJ open repost

OP, I think you have to go with your read on this one. In my experience, most 1/2 players won't raise this flop (it's dry) with anything less than AQ, but if the villain in the hand has been seen to splash around then I don't mind the way you played it.
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