pot:~300
need to call: ~200

strictly speaking we have 1.5:1 pot odds, and need to have 1/(1+1.5) = 1/2.5 = 40% equity for a break even call.

but i do it a way that's easier to calculate at the table, so i say pot odds are (total pot after we call) : (bet we have to call) which is 2.5:1 and then we need 1/2.5 = 40% equity, so it's the same thing.

i just do it so you don't have to add one to the larger number and then divide, which i find confusing to do in my head at the table. this way you can just divide 1 by the number in the ratio you get (in this case 2.5) without adding 1.

you may very well be right. but can you explain this in terms of equity against villain's range?

i'm not trying to like prove you wrong, i just wanna make sure i understand why this is the right move

dude ANL is a fish, flush draws are the nuts for him.

btw, yeah i guess you're fine with the math. I was just implying that its actually 1.5:1 etc.

Btw. My plan here was to c/r smallish so that I could fold to a shove (which i think would be rare to shove that much) and to also set up a shove myself. I figured if he 3bet me smallish i could still shove and put him to a decision for a decent amount of money. Im starting to feel like I am giving up some info here to V but im pretty sure he already knows what im capable of doing.

it's all super standard anyways, except that you're ever considering folding.

with no history, i dont like the CR. If you play with the villain and need to balance then i do like it. But if you DO CR, it is with the thought of getting it in when you have the nut draw, nut high card etc.

CR and folding is like CR for information and its basic as ABC that we dont do that for significant amounts such as a flop CR. Fish do things like CR min or CR 2.5x with FD etc.

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OK, he is a bulk of what happens if we CR this villain big on the flop. Discount a few times villain flats with lesser flush draws, QJo etc, this is mainly what will be happening.

Villain plays online HU and raises buttons very wide. HU players get used to opening like 100% of buttons so im sure he is super wide even in this game. So Im going conservative for argument sake and give villain….
Opening range of 30% of hands.

The calling range as well as shoving range for a BIG flop check raise is below.

There are a few hands villain may flat a big flop CR with, but very few. Not enough to think about. About QJo maybe and maybe bare flush draws.

Villain WILL CBET this flop with all of his 30% range.

If hero CR flop to 50, then villain will continue “mostly” with the range below which happens to only be 2.7% of total hands.\ So villain continues 2.7/30 % of the time. Or 11.1%.

Thus, we win the 16+ (12 cbet guess amt) = 28 ten times for every one time we get it in with 38.8% equity. (Assuming we CR to like 55 forcing villain to a big decision) See equity stove below.
The EV of the allin is
0.388 x 500 minus ~195 = minus $1.00


CONCLUSION - Out of 11 trials, we win $28 ten times and lose $1 once.
So per hand we win 308/11 or $28.

One thing you may notice. Some will say ok lets CR but fold to the shove and it wont hurt. Well yes it will. First villains need to know you back up your CR. Second, why would you only CR this flop with NFD? You may as well do it with ATC if you are going to fold to a shove. You wont hit the flush on the turn but 1 in 5 times about, so thats nothing to feel fantastic about. And third, if you dont CR and get it in with this, then how do you expect to get lighter calls etc when we have sets and CR here? It all interweaves together. Poker is a complete game, not like rolling dice where each hand is totally independent of one another.



equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.811% 38.81% 00.00% 11527 0.00 { Ad2d }
Hand 1: 61.189% 61.19% 00.00% 18173 0.00 { AcAh, AcAs, AhAs, KK, QcQh, QcQs, 66, 44, AcQc, AsQs, Kd6d, Jd6d, 8d6d, 8d5d, 7d6d, 7d5d, 6d5d, 6h4h, 6s4s, 5d3d, KdQc }

Only 2 combos of QQQ
Only 2 combos of AQss
Only one combo of KQo which contain Kd
All others I count all combos possible

ya that looks ok. so i was right that it's close. if you just look at our EV if we stack off.

this is a good simulation of most outcomes if we raise big, like you said. but as i mentioned earlier, i'm making it 35ish and expect villain to flat a lot of the time. that would be a complicated analysis though.

i think what you wrote stands for an analysis of all-in EV. our EV might actually be just slightly positive for stacking off actually, if there is ever any bluffs/spazz in villain's range.

but crunching the numbers does illustrate that from an equity standpoint, c/r'ing and folding to a 3bet shove isn't that bad. i'm not sure why you believe we need to back up our c/r's. if anything, we want villains to believe we have a c/r'ing range that folds to a large reraise. then when we have a set or top two (which should make up the majority of our c/r'ing range normally) we get paid off.

i actually think c/r'ing and then folding to a shove is better for our image than calling and having to show the FD sometimes. this way villains think we were just plain bluffing or spazzing, rather than making a pot-odds based call.

i think if i'm calling a shove here it's only b/c i think we might have slightly positive EV against villain's range.

Well, if you CR smallish, the villains flat range now increases dramatically to even overcard floats or spazz 3 bets. And since we hit the turn very infrequently, why would you select this hand to CR with? You should CR this flop 100% almost, and fold to shove. But you see it cant work that way but for a little while. And if you are not careful, you drown in an unbalanced game and dont even realize it. CR the flop here and folding to shove requires no hand at all really, if you are not going to barrel the turn if he flats.

Oh, and another thing. How do you expect for any villains with a brain to pay off any flop CR of yours if you never go furthur than the flop CR without nuts?

--------------
also,

the entire idea here is that when we CR this flop, and then barrel turn, that villains cannot just fold turn to us figuring we have sets or AA, when they see us barreling FD etc.

I mean, if you are only playing total brainless idiots who never even notice that you only have the nuts when CR flops and betting turn, then i guess play unbalanced vs them. But its a way of playing the game that will inhibit you from playing higher and vs thinking players. Think how difficult it would be to play vs me if i am villain in this hand and you are hero. (and i know your postflop tendencies). You would have no chance overall.

And i believe that many even routine tourist types that you play with regularly get comfortable with your ranges in spots like that. Hell, even old men who think a pokerstove is a new type of wood burning heater, will say stuff like oh he never has anything but a monster when he does this and that. You simply cannot have such narrow ranges and do well unless up against the total braindead.

We c/r as a semi-bluff folding out weak hands that we don't beat ie better ace highs, low pps and some hands that hit a weak pair on the board. About the implied odds, that's why I like a craise way more than a flat OOP in this spot. Even though our ace high might even be good in this spot I think we get more value out of craising.

More info on the raise: We really don't want to flip for our stack so we turn our hand into a bluff folding out hands that we have 50% equity against. Although I agree that if he flats IP and the turn bricks we're in a tough spot I still like the craise because I think villain folds a high percent of the time.

This is live poker. Villains such as this one tend to float flop CR a ton on boards with draws. Not exactly floating but insta flatting midpairs to see what we do on turn, maybe shipping a KJ flush draw, or flatting QT Q9 QJ
etc. They simply flat a lot. What then?

Im really baffled at many of your logic on this. Donking this flop would be FAR better than CR. Ur not going to get folds often enough from a villain such as this. I just flat out dont believe it. And if you do CR the flop, it is mandatory to follow thru on the turn. The play being presented in a few replies here is lopsided terribly IMO.

Against this villain the best exploit i can see is the fact that if we could successfully c/c the flop (and convince him we are weak) and induce him to barrel the turn with his entire range. If so, we CRAI on turn and capture not one but two air bets a ton of the time. We dont even do that bad on the river if he happens to have KQ and snaps the turn.

Now someone convince me of a different plan that works overall better please/.

@ANL- I play with V a lot. Probably 90% of the games Ive played in the last 2-3 months. I dont expect that to decrease in the future. So, yes part of this has to do with hands that havent been played yet. I said above I would fold to shoves, but I also thought a shove would be rare... At the time I did it folding to a shove was very close in my mind. My plan was to shove myself if he 3bet and on brick cards I was going to either barrel or crai. The part I messed up in this hand was I did not barrel the turn when I hit. I think in order to balance properly I need to bet the turn on both made and air hands. I kind of leveled myself though and thought V would bet if I checked because like I said he likes to make big plays at times.

Hero checks
V checks

River

8

Hero bets $40
V calls $40

i can see how we're in a tricky spot on brick turns with the c/r line OTF. part of my reasoning earlier ITT was that villain may be tempted to check back a lot of brick turns for fear that we are strong and exploiting his aggressive tendencies, planning to c/jam OTT. if he has a medium SDV hand or a draw, he may prefer to just see a river. similarly with air, i doubt he's stabbing OTT after we c/r'ed flop.

APD, do you think he checks back a lot of brick turns if we c/r to $35 OTF?

ya i think barreling turn is better. it's what we would do if we didn't have the flush, which could give us some extra value from the upper end of villain's range here. i'm actually leaning towards a slight underbet OTT.

now the train is getting on back on the tracks as far as im concerned. There are several ways to play the hand, but i just thought a small CR and fold to shove was not one of them.

@8o8 - If you really want to know the answer to that question pm me. Its kind of becoming a sticky situation for me because i know V is reading this and he is a taker of info rather than a giver and im not going to give him any more ammo than he already has... If that makes sense?

really hate your turn check

So did I.

Would donk-bet smallish (bit more than 1/2 of pot) then 3-bet if raised be bad on the flop, because we'd get more money from his air?

well it doesn't really matter. if he doesn't check back turns much after we c/r flop, then i would have to reconsider the flop line. if he believes our c/r'ing range to be generally shifted towards nutty hands and away from air or draws, then we can likely get a free river.

results i guess?

lol at a regularly played villain being ITT. a taker not a giver hey?

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For the heck of it, please explain since it makes zero sense to me.

It would be puke for hero to check turn with value hands he CR flop with. Worse than horrible. Getting a free river means hoping to lose the pot almost 77% the time or so. What in the world are you speaking of here?

IMO, If I c/r the flop here I am leading pretty much all turns with my entire range.

it's what i initially said was the line i would take. see below

this was my initial thought. i'm open to the idea that barreling turn if it bricks is better. i'm not sure

I think for most 1-2 players A2s is prolly a leak to flat out of SB with 120bb vs another regular.

Re: flop play

If it is true that villian c-bets a high frequency - then there is alot of value c/r the flop.
We can get a few better hands to fold immediately - e.g. better Ace highs - as well as hands with 4-6 outs vs us and low pocket pairs and maybe some 4x.
There are a few worse hands that can call - mainly worse Non Pair FDs. Umm but combinatorically within his bet/call range they will not be too many. Thats not because he has a certain width of range - just the ratio of Fd combos vs pair combos mean no matter how wide or narrow the impact of FDs in general are small combinatorically.

Whether or not c/r is the optimal line is villian dependent
c/c c/r is prolly the only other realistic alternative - and that will only be the case if villian barrells both flop and turn at a very high rate.
It has to be a very high rate because of the collapsing in our EV on the turn.
So the return on the second barrell has to be of a sufficient frequency to justify sticking it in with say 20-25% EV when called.

How to measure this is prolly a showdown based exercise.
Re: c/r call it off - its kinda not ideal
We are looking at a price of something like 190 to win 490 playing a range most likely something like this
QQ+,66,44,AQs,KQs,QJs,JdTd,Td9d,9d8d,8d7d,7d6d,6d5 d,64s,AQo,KQo,QJo with 41% equity

Sure having the nut draw is nice but the thing that is problematic - is I actually don't trust the fact that you are capable of c/r a ton on this board which if we are honest you really only ever have one draw and Kinda doubt that you c/r enough hands for value or as a bluff - for villian to be psyched to be getting in another 90bb with a bare FD or QJ.
Your read might have been he has some special spazziness vs aggression or that he might be on tilt but in general I think that he will view this c/r on average to be NFD, combo draw + sets and some silly slowplayed overpair and mayyyybe AQ.
So I think in general - you actually do not have a weak enough perceived range to get really good chunks of EV about a c/r call it off.

Also - it is premised on the fact that villian has a really weak capped bet/call range on the flop.

And alot of these tendencies that you have outlined for villian reinforces why I dont like the fact you called PF because you have the top of your range and you kinda not loving life alot of the time.

1st off: fold preflop. A2s is going to be hard to turn a profit from long term vs a tricky and aggressive villain OOP even if he is a bit spazzy.

I like this line very much vs. this player. Had this done to me when I was in villain's spot a couple times and I was not happy about it.



I have questions for ANL:

With what hands would you execute a check flop, CRAI turn line for value and not as a bluff?

Would you ever choose that line for value in this hand?

Do you think this is an optimal way to play these hands for value or something you would do to balance?