Hero - playing game for about 1 hour, running well...only two showdowns in larger pots and picked up few smaller pots also. Built stack from 550 to 1,000 in that time.

V - a regular who tends to drink a lot when he plays and can be super spewy, however, he seems to be sober and playing tight in this game so far.

Game: 1/2
500 BBs effective

Hand:

Hero: (As, Ac)
UTG+1 and HJ limp
Hero: raise to 12 in CO

V in BB calls, both players in MP also call

FLOP (49) - 5d, Qh, 4d
V (BB who has about 1,300 in his stack) - check
UTG +1 - check
HJ - check
Hero: bets 31
BB: raises to 80
UTG+1 and HJ fold
Hero: flats 80

TURN (209) - 10s
BB: Bets 150
Hero: Tanks for 10-15 seconds and flats

RIVER (509) - 2h
BB: bets 500
Hero?

The main hands I'm scared of here are pocket 4s and 5s, A,3DD is also very possible with this V. He never has pocket queens.

I think my hand is a bit face up when I just flat turn given the draw combos out there (unless im slowing playing QQ)...am I making a mistake not raising flop or turn?

Thoughts welcome - thanks!

River feels like an easy fold.
You should be beat about 75% of the time here.

How is this a 3bet pot?

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Sorry - made mistake in post - how can I edit existing post?

Your hand becomes a bluff catcher once V c/r flop and barrels turn. The hand seems fine and standard up until river, at which point you can estimate whether you win 1/3 of the time or more against V's range. Doing the full analysis at the table is difficult, so you can look for clues about hand strength based on previous hands he has played:

How often does villain 3-barrel? Has he shown down/mucked any big bet bluffs or semi-bluffs? Has he left off a river bet in other hands where he showed flop and turn aggression?

I'm going to share my personal "leak" with you:

I'll fold to pretty much anyone who 3-barrels me and I'm only holding top pair or an overpair (on an unpaired board). Especially for 250BBs on the river.

If you want to come play with me, I'm in South FL.

+1.

One additional question: has he tended to bet big on the river with TPTK, bet small with TPTK, or check river with TPTK?

For this to be a profitable call, I think we need to know that he overvalues a hand like AQ in this spot. Plenty of LLSNL players do.

We just don't see this sort of three-barrel line very often as a bluff or semi-bluff at LLSNL. Most of his range is going to be value hands. For a call to be correct, we need to know if he also includes hands that we beat in that value range.

dump it after he fires again on the turn. once you call the check raise and he still leads into on the turn, your hand is face up and he has you crushed.

river - double fold since this should have been a fold on the turn.

No way am I paying this off.
250bb on the river with a only a bluff catcher?
The main decision was the turn. If you're calling turn you calling with the knowledge that a big river bet is coming.
Replying "I was calling to evaluate river" is not appropriate here. Since you KNOW what is coming.

Completely untrue. Lots of players will two barrel. Not many will 3 barrel.

Need a read... Vs line screams missed draw.

I probably call.

I don't think he's ever betting AQ for value here as worse never calls - plus he has a lot of show down value with that hand so checking makes more sense.

He has not tended to bet big for value in any hands I have seen unless he has minimum 2 pair or a bluff. I have seen him once or twice 3 barrel bluff and show the bluff when he's drunk but that was harder to determine in this hand as he seemed to be playing logically.

To anyone saying i should fold turn - please explain why? He is 2 barreling all his draws and even his A,Q OTT. The main hands I'm scared off are just small sets OTR - which made this a hard decision as I do believe he put me on KK and AA, and he knows I'm easily capable of folding these hands. I felt like his river range is super polarized...

Well... this is really a value judgment. It takes V having about four combos of busted diamonds to make this a profitable river call, given the narrowness of his value range (7 combos). I would default to calling against a player that's shown spewy tendencies, because it's too difficult to resist the temptation to fire that last bullet with ANY of your busted combos. Especially because the pot is so big and the third barrel looks so scary.

Total nit, yeah folding this all day. But if you think V is tight enough to merit a river fold you usually should dump the hand earlier, as nothing much has changed.

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I agree with some others that this is a lot about knowing your villain and his tendencies. In a vacuum, I'd probably say this is generally a fold. If you guys have a ton of history, it is hard for us to come to a stronger conclusion than you can. However, I would say that if this is a fold on the river, it is reasonable to fold on the turn as well, if we believe we're facing a river bet close to 100% of the time. If you do feel compelled to bluff catch here, it is not a terrible spot to do so as he can have some semi-made hands that would have a ton of equity through the flop, such as KQ/AQdd. But he could also reasonably have QTdd just as well. Having an Ace of Diamonds blocker would be a small but significant factor as well, as now he has more diamond draw hands that are reasonable.

This is a spot I would tank for a few minutes, had I made it to this river. It is a huge amount of money for the blinds. Is it reasonable he has 44 here? 55? Yes. You concluded he does not have QQ, that's probably a fine assumption. What about 54? Then I would think about if he would go this far with a diamond draw. Certain opponents are so aggressive and loose and frankly wild that calling here in the long run is +EV. What hands might he be betting thinking he is value betting but we are beating? I can't reasonable put anything there except potentially AQ.

I'm leaning towards folding, just as if it were an unknown, in part due to your read that he is playing tight and not drinking.

The thing is, V doesn't have to be running a massive airball bluff for this to be a call. He's repping so narrow that almost any combos of busted draws are enough here. If he has even a third of all available Ax, we're good to call.

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To your point about his tendencies - I haven't seen him do anything crazy unless he's drunk, but even then I don't think he bets 500 OTR with his value hands (sets, weird Q,T or 4,5), he's more likely to bet 300-350. His sizing really made me tank for a few mins.

However, I ended up folding as I just couldn't gather enough 'proof/cause' to justify the call - overall it just didn't seem like a spewy moment to me. Also, sets would play this hand exactly like this (except sizing as I mentioned) especially against my range which looks very like KK or AA.

After tanking and having clock called I folded with a few seconds left. He showed the Ad - then after speaking to him for a few mins admitted he had AQdd but felt like I had KK and decided to try 'bet large enough' to get me to fold.

On reflection I felt like my thought process was good in this hand and long term this is a good fold?

You forgot about 45 ... You are so deep with V he should be calling those a lot (maybe not out of blinds). Also, 36 got there. Only you know how wide he will call you preflop.

And you can't say he NEVER has pocket Qs. He may not have them often, but even if it is 5 percent of the time, he does have them in his range.

Actually, thinking better of it, we should fold due to the size of the river bet. It takes some cojones to shovel in a full 100bb PSB just trying to bully you off the pot, and I imagine a lush would need some liquid courage to do it.

So, this is probably more of a fold.

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I kept thinking to myself afterwards - would I have called if he was hammered?!

I think i may have, then puked when he turned over 44, 45, 55, 36 as mentioned above (forgot 3,6dd is actually in his range)

If he's even a little tipsy this is a call all day.

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Game is 1/2 so the bet is 250bb.

But the line and sizing implies a bluff otr as Hero can have QQ, but not much else if V somehow has 2p or a straight.

If he's thinking at all (he probably is not), the bet doesn't target enough hands to be worth it (size wise).

If he's not thinking about H's range, then the sizing is unusually large for just about all of V's range, given that he bet smaller on prior streets.

A read, or history, is tremendous in this spot. Playing this deep without it is extremely difficult. (If this was 2/5, it would be a snap call.)

It should be fairly obvious that folding is not a mistake. But calling might be 100% correct.

Generally speaking, against V as described, I tank call here most if the time, this deep.

I am not sure but i would probably fold turn.

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...or the Villian has had the Hero call him down on 2 streets already with decent sized bets and doesn't realize that a 250BB river bet is not a good sizing for a value bet with a set or 2p to get the Hero to call with AA or KK. Maybe he's just not good enough to realize that he's about to lose the $250-300 he could have profited if he didn't push the river so hard.

Screams missed draw. Villain is a regular but you can't tell us if he has played a missed draw like this ? Reads on flop check raises ? Reads on triple barrels ? Who has 44 55 qq or 2 pair and blasts 500 on river ? He must know he's not getting any value from missed draws a Q and or an overpair after all he is a regular who's playing sober and tight right ?

When we call the turn we are not folding to the 2h. We should only call the turn with a plan for river. If i call turn i call all non diamond rivers

I fold the flop pretty often vs lower level players. Its very hard to get out of line here, but ive seen it. I saw a guy check raise a QT2 flop from the big and fire every street with 34 and he got stacked by AA.

Havent seen that guy in months.

He is rarely bluffing here and even if he is, a lot of his bluffs have eq otf. His eq is around 45ish pct otf

Fold or re raise flop or check behind imo