BB is a fishy reg who is tightish preflop but over aggro post flop mostly in terms of cbetting way to much and loving to semi bluff draws.
Once flop is checked through I think he would bet any pair 22+, plus any draw such as 7x and JT/maybe QJ.
He views Hero as to tight but winning reg.

Turn call is because I feel I have enough equity versus his betting range especially as a double paired board could counterfeit some of his small pairs and river bet is to rep AK and hopefully fold out some small pairs. Thoughts?


Hero has $500, BB covers

Hero is on BTN with AQ

CO limps, Hero makes it $17 on button, SB calls, BB calls, CO calls

Flop ($68)
689
checked through

Turn ($68)
6
SB checks, BB bets $40, CO folds, Hero calls $40, SB folds

River ($148)
K
BB checks, Hero bets $80

I like it. Trying to rep AK I'm guessing.

If BB is smart enough, say he has 1 pair type hands, he might be smart enough to sniff it out. If he has a naked 7 or JT, he's folding anyway.

fold turn

Folding turn is probably best. Calling can't be too bad, but I think folding is a bit better.

I agree with turning the hand into a bluff on river. I might make it 100 though; 80 might get looked up more often.

What river cards are you betting? A, K and Q only?

The K is a great card to bluff, and the A and Q to bet for value, but other than those 10 cards, we don't have much river maneuverability. But of course some % we can check back and have the best hand. Though some other %, we have the best hand but V bets again, and we have to fold. I think it's all just fairly close but that folding turn is probably best by at least a little bit.

I like betting the King here. Your line looks like AK or a slow played trip 6. His range includes AK and KQ but also has a ton of other holdings. He should be folding any 77 - 22. A pair of 8's or better might find a call no matter your sizing.

Fold turn. I don't think he's bluffing into 3 other players often enough

Folding turn is best I think since with AQ we likely going to get barreled off of our hand on the river too often to make our turn call profitable. We also have the SB to worry about. On the turn we need to think about what our opponents likely river betting tendencies are going to be. If he bets the river with essentially every hand he bets the turn with then we should be calling turn with hands that can call on blank rivers(calling turn and folding river would be very bad against this type of villain). If he is likely to only bet the turn with a bluff and not bluff the river then we likely have a profitable turn call with AQ. So its important in game we are trying to get reads on our opponents tendency to barrel the river with air and use that to decide if we should call with a hand like AQ or not. Just because our opponent is aggressive on early streets doesn't mean he will be aggressive on later streets.

Readless I fold AQ.

i tend to agree with others, though I like the line if the turn was a 9 instead of a 6. I think since there aren't any pairs of 6s in his range anymore there's not enough folds. i think any 8 or 9 is calling here.

I tend to agree with most of your Hand analyses but...
How is betting riv a profitable bluff except against the nittiest weak V?

Fish V should be ck-c almost everything that beats A high and folding whatever doesn't.

Solid V should be suspect that hero has any value hands left after hero ck flop/call turn. Granted a super passive pp line on a wet flop is in there but low frequency. Ak/Kx is not a reasonable part of heros range IMO and ck-c a larger bet would be a little easier than a small one

Yeah, you may be right. I'm thinking about the possibility of 22-55, 77, 78, 79, etc. I'm not sure he leads 22-55 on turns, and true, maybe he doesn't fold 77+. Sometimes it's hard to figure out a hand like this, which I think should have ended with a turn fold. Seems funny to call turn, river one of the scare cards, as far as any card might be scary, and then just check behind. I guess I'm just trying to think of a cohesive hand that makes sense with the turn call... if we're merely bluff catching the turn and folding to all river bets (except for a river A or Q) or checking all others rivers behind, then the turn call probably doesn't make any sense.

It's prob just way too weak to ck flop and, yeah, prob has to be a turn fold. I mean, once calling turn do we prefer to see V bet riv or ck??? It can be hard enough to play pairs IP on these boards let alone A high.

I'm a big fan of your line. Folding the turn is obviously the safe play and there's nothing wrong with it. I like that you recognized the opportunity to bluff the river.

You can win outright with an A or Q, or possibly an 8 or 9. I think any river other than a 2,3,4, or 6 can be turned into a bluff. Villain could have a straight draw or a weak two pair. I think villain bets the river with anything better than two pair. I'd bet if villain checks a river 5, 7, or T. I'd also bet any J+ representing a rivered two pair. You can rep a lot of scare cards that stand a good chance to bluff him out. I'm assuming villain isn't capable of c/r with a busted draw.

Bet sizing is ok. I'd probably make it $100.