Played an uncapped game of 1/2/3/10 the other day, stacks were quite deep due to structure and pro being at table. Everybody agreed to straddle $10.

Cutoff: V1 ($1,400) - Professional player, mid 40s WM
Button: Hero ($1,950) - Low-stakes (1/2, 1/3) regular, mid 30s AM
UTG/Straddle: V2 ($800) - Recreational player, irrelevant

-Hero has never played larger than 5/10 capped and this is the first time playing with all players
-Game had been going on for about 90 minutes
-Hero is most likely seen as tight player due to general low VPIP and playstyle

Preflop:
V1 opens to $25
Hero (A9) raises to $75
V2 calls, V1 calls (after some delay)

Flop ($230): 225
V2 checks, V1 checks
Hero bets $125, V1 calls

Turn ($480): 225Q
V1 checks, Hero checks

River ($480): 225Q9
V1 bets $300
Hero action?

Some notes/questions:
1. This is not a move I typically make - I would normally fold this >50% of the time. I did not feel it was good enough to call with so I elected to 3-bet.

Flop:
2. Do you agree V1's calling range should be something like: A5, 45, 56, 22-JJ, AQ, AJ, AT, KQ, KJ, KT?, QJ, QT?, JT

3. How often is V1 floating with made hands (pair) vs. unmade hands (broadway cards)?

Turn:
4. Is there in any sense in continuing the aggression by betting? Based on assigned range above, V1 would maybe fold AJ, AT, KJ, KT, JT only.
-Basically, how often does V1 float flop with hands that are not ahead of hero's A9, since I am assuming any made hand (pairs or better) will call a Turn bet.
-Betting Turn here means I must bet River.

River:
5. How often is V1 turning small pairs or missed broadways, missed turned flush draws into bluffs, given Hero checked behind on Turn?

6. What about V1's sizing?

7. What does V1 think Hero has here most of the time? Would/should Hero check back KK/AA on the turn?

8. Can raising over the top all-in for $900 more be +EV?

Feel free to chew me up with constructive thoughts.

Thanks.

If you're going to play A9 in this spot you need to bet the turn.

But generally too loose imo.

Fold pre. Now call.

River looks like a fold. The range of hands villain could have that need to bluff is a bit thin. He could have AJ. That's about all I got. For value hands, AQ, KQs, 99, 55, 22 all make sense.

This might be thin as a sizing tell, but I feel like he just bets halfpot with bluffs. The hands he's trying to bluff you off are not strong, so he doesn't need a big bet. The extra $60 just looks like greed.

Fold pre obviously, especially playing a bigger game.

Flop can be sized smaller to $60-80.

Bet turn to fold mid-PP’s.

He doesn’t need to bet big on river to fold out your AK. Looks like value.

One thing that might be worth noting is that A9o is bad for a CO-BTN threebet specifically, because ranges are wider, which means that the blocking effect of having an ace is less important and the fact that your playing strength sucks is more important. Much better off with hands like JTs in these scenarios.

With these stack sizes, I’m 3b to $115 pre, as $75 achieves practically nothing and he’s never folding (if that’s what you want).

Flop is standard, but you need to bet this turn for sure. $275. By checking, you’re just giving away your hand out and opening up to getting bluffed.

River bet seems strange. Is he capable of value betting JJ/TT here? If not, he’s only repping AQ or 55. Without reading much into his sizing, I call.

Sucks when we thought we put a stop on how much money we were going to lose in this pot and suddenly we can lose more

I prob end up calling this. He floats flop with a lot of hands which try to bluff us OTR. It sucks when he has TT and owns us.

I hardly ever say this, but fold pre

Flop is such crap for our range, I personally would pick turn as a better barrel card than the flop.

As played though, if your opponent is a good player, then I'm not sure how often he shows up with an actual Q here, KQ, QJ Q-10 would just have to fold, even if they have a backdoor diamonds, they aren't drawing to the nuts and could be really dominated when they hit pair outs.

I'd say when they call the bet on flop, a big part of their range consists of 55-TT. As played, if you actually had AQ, KQ, KK, AA or perhaps even JJ, that turn is a definite continue.

Once river falls, you may get value from 66-88, but in general, those hands should try to reach a cheap showdown given the play on the turn. The one hand that can maybe take this line would be 55 as if there isn't a bet on the Q, there shouldn't be a reason for hero to bet a 9 river. Villain could however, squeeze out a call from TT or JJ.

I think this is a fold, not because I put the villain on one of the three combos of 55 but more of I cannot find a plausible bluff that would continue the flop. Main hands we are beating, will also want to check the river

Agree. I am calling river as I think villain can reasonably value bet worse hands in addition to any bluffs he might have.

Not a fan of the 3! Preflop

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

Agreed that 3! preflop is not ideal - I would say I do this <5% of the time. Part of the rationale (right or wrong) behind the 3! was that V1 had been opening quite light in late position. I was actually fairly confident V1 would fold non-premium hands but did not expect V2 to cold call the 3! in the Straddle and give V1 more of a reason to defend. $75 at the time was enough to fold out hands preflop.

Seems like there is a pretty even consensus between folding and calling river in this spot.

I feel raising the river is also quite strong here if we think V1 has TT or better. We are only losing to QQ and an (unlikely) 99. V1's line does not feel consistent with 55.

Nobody has addressed what V1 thinks of Hero's range - can Hero ever have AA/KK/QQ and NOT bet the turn? Against V1, I know I would have checked back AA/QQ (maybe KK) for deception.

Two additional question:
1. Is raising river (all-in) a +EV play?
2. If V1 really has Qx, what is he expecting Hero to call with?

How is 55 any different from 99? Both play it the same. So does QQ for that matter if your image is tight and nitty.

I feel 55 would put in a small check-raise on the flop or lead smaller on the river.

99 I feel would play it this way, but there is exactly 1 combination of that hand.

The question is still, what does V1 think Hero has? Does V1 think Hero ever has a strong hand here?

Why would 55 x/r a flopped boat when AK/AQ makes up a big portion of your range?

Because an overpair is never folding on that flop and he should never have a 2.

Given my tight image, I feel my range in this spot is mostly TT+, AK.

If he's a good player, I think leading flop with 55 is also viable.

Maybe it's just a live feel as well - I never once considered him having 55 there.

But it seems enough people are concerned about 55 being a possibility here; so point noted.

55 can easily stack AA/KK with a x/c -> x/c -> x/c or x/jam line.

Maybe he leads river but there’s really no reason to get aggressive any earlier when he has tons of smaller overpairs that will be playing the same way.

this is the best kind of spot to just rely on your (hopefully) already defined strat.

you're leveling yourself because this guy is a "pro" and you have no idea whether to hero here.

stupid spot because you shouldn't have A9o here, but do you check river to induce with KQ+ here?

if not, next best hand you have is TT or JJ.

Probably have to call with some 9 if we are never trapping river.

A9 is probably not the best one because we block some of his A3 A4 continues.

Stupid spot though

Results OP?

Interesting analysis - I never even considered A3/A4 as hands he could have there, but those make perfect sense. That's an additional 6 combos of hands that I beat, on top of the 66-88 bluffs that are trying to blow me off what looks like an underpair to the Q (TT/JJ).

He is a Pokerstars sponsored pro. He was at our local cardroom recently just hanging out, on his way to another city, hence the deepstacks and people flocking to the table to play with him.

I had no idea he was going to be playing there - I just ended up sitting next to him.

What do you mean by checking with KQ+ to induce? You mean V1 checking with KQ+ to induce Hero to bluff?

Will post in next few hours - want to hear a few more unbiased opinions first

Sorry,

I meant check turn

Yes, unless Villain is a maniacal calling station, I will almost always check turn with KQ+ here to (1) Induce a bet or call on river, (2) Allow for me to check back weaker hands (99, TT, JJ, AK) when I don't have it (like A9 in this instance).

If I had KQ+, I would not expect to get 3 streets anyway, so letting him take a free Turn card seems to make the most sense. If Turn bet gets called, Villain should find a fold by the River anyway.

As played,

River ($480): 225Q9
V1 bets $300
Hero calls $300
V1 shows AQ

Should V1 not typically be checking here on river?

No? Why on earth would he check? You're not going to check turn and then bluff river.