Background: 2-5 NL home game. I have never seen Villain before in my life (well-dressed, mid to late 20s Asian kid). We have just started and played one orbit, seven handed. During this one orbit, Villain has made one bad, but not horrible bluff, and made a seemingly good value bet with AQ on a Qxx-x-K board in a spot where a lot of people would've been scared by the K (he got paid by QJ, iirc). Other than that, has folded his other hands and done nothing note-worthy at all. Then the following two hands happen:
Hand 1 (for context):
UTG (Tight old white dude, about $650): Opens for $15
Folds to Villain ($915) on the Button: Calls.
SB: Folds.
Hero (BB, $500, 6
5
): 3-bets to $50
UTG: Quickly calls.
Villain: 4-bets to $200
Hero: Folds.
UTG: Thinks for a second and calls.
Flop ($450): T
9
4
UTG: Shoves for about $450.
Villain: Snap calls.
UTG shows Q
Q
Villain shows A
7
UTG holds. Villain is left with exactly $265.
The very next hand:
Folds to Villain in the CO: Open shoves for $265.
Button folds.
Hero (SB, $450) looks down at A
T
, BB is UTG old guy from last hand, who has him covered.
So . . . Fold or shove?
I'm assuming old guy calls me with AJs, AQ+, 77+. That makes the shove -$4.26 EV against just the old guy. If he also calls with AJo that gets a bit worse: -$5.90. If he calls with KQs, that adds about $.17 to my EV. Each of the pairs 22-66 that he calls with take away $.10
So, let's say I lose about $5 from shoving on BB.
So the real question is what do you think I'm going to see from Villain (we have one normal orbit, one bats**t insane hand, and then this open shove)?
If I'm going to see a lot of absolute junk, it's obviously a good call. However, if he's doing this with the top of his range, I need him to be shoving 18.5% (22+, A2s+, A4o+, KJ+, KTs). If he's not going to be shoving QQ+ because he thinks it's too valuable, then I need him to be shoving 15.5% (22-JJ, A2s+, A6o+, KQ, KJs, KTs) or more.
Thoughts?