In last night's 1/2 session I was trying very hard to bet for fat value, but was having a very difficult time getting paid off by second best hands. It was a bit frustrating as well considering there were some insane spots I watched like one guy go all in for 250 with K high on an Ace high flop and another person call with Queen high. In other words, people were calling with about as worst as you could imagine, yet I could never get paid off, and it got me thinking about how players at this level are perceiving bet sizing.

I'm talking here when I'm on the river with a hand I am enormously confident is the best hand, but my opponents aren't thinking in terms of "half sized or full sized pot bet" They're thinking about $75 and that's just too much to call without trips or better. Now one difficult thing about this game is that people are so willing to call and playing such a wide range of hands that second best hands I can't imagine show up at showdown, but rarely for large bets. In a situation where I have the best hand, should I be betting an amount I KNOW they will call or an amount they very well might call if they get a wild inclination?

Example hand

Villain UTG+1 calls, folds to hero in sb with JJ. Hero calls. BB checks.

Flop $6 - J35r
Hero checks, Villain bets $12. Hero Calls
Turn $30 - Suited 6
Hero bets $30. Villain calls.
River $90 - Offsuit 9
Hero bets $75. Villain thinks for a good while and reluctantly folds.
I am pretty confident this guy would have called for a bit less, such as 40, unless he was going Hollywood with his bricked draw, but there are other hands as well where I feel I could go for some more value and miss out by trying to go for a home run bet.

you played this hand very strangely and badly.
i would imagine that villain probably just didn't have a very good hand (maybe like a pair+draw on the turn) and therefore folded.

as an in general statement recreational/gambler type players are much too loose early in hands (cuz any 2 can win obv)... and are too weak/tight later in hands.
against such players not raising pre is criminal.

I didn't raise preflop because I didn't want to play a big pot out of position against someone who should have a reasonably strong range if I don't hit a set and overcards hit the board. On this flop, I check because what's calling me?

That's the thing.

Everyone at the table can probably recognize that you're a tight player, and the moment you put in a big pot, it would be pretty damn obvious that you have a strong hand.

not sure what you mean by "big pot".... i'm not sure i would consider most hands where one preflop raise goes in a "big pot".

the villain does not have a "reasonably strong range pre". JJ has their range crushed... prob something like 65% equity against his range pre. you're just not taking advantage of what villains are doing wrong if you don't raise pre here.

the way the hand actually played out... it is kinda inconsistent to not be able to imagine any hands that could call a flop bet on this flop but to expect villain to call a pot size bet on the turn.

I wasn't really "expecting" at this point more like hoping, but it seems like a now or never time for me. The board looks pretty terrible to me for getting any action. Once he calls though I'm thinking AJ, KJ, some two pairs and maybe a couple straight draws/flush draws

Edit: In response to the "big pot" thing: A good raise for this hand at this table would be $15. Say BB and villain call. $45 pot and flop comes down Kc 4d 5d and I'm first to act. I don't want to be there. Or say the Villain's range is as weak as you say and BB folds and he folds as well. Or BB folds villain calls and we get the same exact flop. He's definitely not calling a bet now and probably not betting himself. I find all of these situations worst than how the hand actually played out