Originally posted in the wrong forum, but the background is this:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/39...llain-1424365/
This was 2 months ago with same villain: cliffs: eff. $320, I get AA UTG, and make it $20 pf. I get 5 callers! Villain is 3 seats to my left, so MP. Flop is Q99 rainbow. Pot is $100.
I cbet $50. Villain shoves for $250 more. Everyone folds and now it's my action.

History repeats itself? Same villain. Same venue. Last night:

Eff. stacks $300-400. I get AA in early position and make it $20 pf and get two callers. Flop ($60) is 447 and I bet $40, villain from original post in this thread (and also V4 in this thread http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...lered-1443236/) calls. Heads up to the turn ($140) is 8. The PF and Turn bets seem reasonable to me, but now I bet $60 which I realize is too small. He shoves for an additional $200. Does he have A4? two spades? T9? This is someone who will call raises with ATC. Also knows from previous hands he can push me off. Also likes to bet big with big hands... What's my move?

Baluga Theorem, imo. Unless the reads in the other threads are "V is spewy and FOS a lot, esp on paired boards," I fold.

drbeechwood:

I think there are a few reasons you've only gotten one response to your thread, albeit from a benevolent mod.

1) Formatting. You've got kind of a stream-of-consciousness thing going in your OP, along with links that lead to ?? villain descriptions. Just copy-paste those villain descriptions into the OP; you shouldn't expect people to read 2 other threads just to comment on this one. Also check out this example post:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...mplate-770217/

See how much easier that is to read that you hand history.

Line breaks make a big difference.

2) Multiple hands in the same post. Generally it's best to stick to one hand per post as it focuses the discussion and avoids confusion.

Oh, and read the stickies! There's a lot of good stuff in there....

Thanks. I have spent many hours on the sticky threads, but agree about the links and formatting.

The biggest issue is dealing with a villain who has a history of raising me all-in on multiple hands and I'm questioning whether he has a line on me as being weak-tight and is making moves each time, or if he actually has a strong hand, as Garick mentioned is likely.

So the multiple hands I think were somewhat relevant to reading the player and trying to figure out the history. The hand I posted is not that exciting, but it's one of several that are similar with the same villain.

Prehand
Game is 1-2NL, mostly loose passive, with stacks 100-500
All regulars in the game.
Villain: young guy who is LAG
Hero: Folds a lot but also plays too many trash hands, limps too much, under bets too much, working on everything....

Background hand #1:
Eff. stacks ~$300
I have JJ in MP
Villain raises to 12
I 3bet to 25, he calls
Flop ($53) is Qxx with two hearts.
He checks. I bet $30. He goes all-in for $200.
That's about what I have behind. I fold.

Background hand #2:
Eff. stacks ~$300
I'm UTG, Villain is MP
I get AA UTG, bet $20.
5 callers
Flop ($100) is Q99 rainbow.
I c-bet $50.
Villain shoves for $250 more.
I call.
Villain shows J9o, he wins with trips.

Background hand #3
Eff. stacks ~$250
Game is 6 handed
Villain is immediately to my left.

I have Q3 and limp with two others.
Flop ($6) is J62.
V checks, I bet $15, villain calls.
Turn ($36) is 6
V checks, I bet $30, V calls.
River ($96) is a blank
V bets $75, I call, he has J6 for a boat.

THIS HAND:
Eff. $300-400.
I'm in EP, V is in MP
I have AA, bet $20, two callers
Flop ($60) is 744
I bet $40, V calls, other guy folds.
Turn ($140) is 8
I bet $60
V shoves for an additional $200.

Does he have A4? two spades? T9? This is someone who will call raises with ATC. Also knows from previous hands he can push me off. Also likes to bet big with big hands... What's my move?

If there's a pattern, it's that I'm betting big pairs that are not improving, and he is calling flop, and raising big on turn or river on semi-scary boards.

Is he playing me? Or does he have decent cards each time? In two of these hands, he had a better hand, even though he was playing trash (J9o, J6s).

Maybe it's unknowable without a call. But in the hand I posted in this thread, it's really hard to think about what he might have, but I suppose if there's a four in his range, then I'm making the right move to fold.

In the hand in question, do you have the ace of spades?

It makes a difference in terms of how you're going to range him. Although I'm not sure there are a lot of spades in his range either way.

Sorry, it was AA

All things considered, I think it's a fold.

The way this guy plays so loose, I think there are just way too many 4x in his range to make calling profitable. Given that, he he'd have to make this play with a ton of spades 100% of the time.

A few thoughts.

Suits and villain tendency to play unsuited rags...

What suits are the 4s? Can we at least eliminate some A4 combos due to the suit combinations in our hand and on the board? It's a small thing but eliminating at least some combos helps. Esp with villains who only have rags that are suited with an ace in their calling range.

If this v is literally ATC Ace discounting doesn't mean a lot. He's got 4x 56 obv 77 in his range. Honestly I didn't read the other threads to see what his shoving tendencies are.

The other thing is that the turn sizing really does look weak. When taking a bet/fold value line we really do need to make "meaningful" bets both for value and so we can comfortably fold to aggression that legitimately indicates we may be beat.

Will villain shove naked flush draws on a paired board? If he does and if he is ATCish that puts a lot of flush draws in his range. If you stove a range consisting of reasonable 4x combos, spade combos, 77, 88 and perhaps another overpair or two and 56 you will prob find you have equity to call.

So it really comes down to will he ship naked Flush Draws in this spot. Most players would be more likely to ship flop rather than turn. So We assume no here unless we have evidence that says otherwise.

If we have evidence that he will ship FDs then we probably have equity vs his range to call.

I'm not sure, but I think based on hand histories that in the ones he showed, he waited until he made the hand until he shipped it. I think more likely he doesn't have a flush draw, unless possibly he had JsTs and had both the OESD and a flush draw. I know that the fours on the board were not spades, so As4s is still possible.

The only thing that made me want to call was the feeling that he was making a move. He's seen that I raise with big cards, but I could be making this raise with AK or AQ and my turn bet looks like maybe I'm scared after he called my C-bet on the flop.

In fact, I have some history with villain winning hands and him not being such a gracious winner (e.g., laughing as he scoops pot, making comments about 'how could I call there' etc.), making me want to snap him off but then I'm thinking that I'm calling for the wrong reason. I just really, REALLY didn't want to pay him off to see some A4 type hand beat me, and I folded to wait for a better spot.

Grunch.

V has a history of owning H by betting big with big hands and getting called down. Pretty sure this is spot on Buluga Theorem. Fold


One of the most honest self evaluations I've seen in a long time. Most people start their posts "tag image, limp 69s UTG"

Just for an update against same villain, an instructive hand that confirms the thoughts of several of you. Cliffs: He plays a lot of hands, but not scared to shove with big hands. Mostly I have been laying them down but occasionally I call a big bet and usually see a good hand, even if I was ahead earlier in the hand.

1-2 NL.
Villain two seats to my left with about $250, I'm in early position with $500.
I have QQ and raise to $20, three callers.
Flop ($80) is QJ6
I make it $45, one caller
Turn ($170) is a T, I bet $60
V shoves for ~$150, I have him covered.
Pot is $380

I tank call, and he shows AK and agrees to run it three times.
I win the last one for 1/3 of the pot when I get a river 10.

So, he flops a gutshot, hits it, and bets it on the river.

Questions:
-How's my flop bet? On a rainbow flop, I don't have as much to worry about here right?

-My turn bet, is it OK? I felt like I bet to see if he had a straight, and he did, and I still called.

-River call, bad? I guess I felt like he could have QT here, or AQ...but he didn't raise until the ten, so I should I guessed AK is a possibility.

Flop bet: There may not be a flush draw, but there are straight draws. When we are determining how much to bet on the flop, we aren't trying to chase away draws. We WANT them to draw, we just want them to draw INCORRECTLY. So, you still have to put enough in there to deny them odds.

That said, you should bet around 60 on the flop, and you are trying to get villain's stack. With 60 on the flop, that leaves ~135 dollar shove into a 200 dollar pot on the turn. If he's got the straight, so be it. Cooler. You've still got 10 outs.

We have top set so we block TP and most 2p hands. With the exception of set over set which plays itself mostly it's hard to get called by many value hands so we are hoping to get called by KT and 9T.

I'm not putting many AKs in v's pf flatting and flop calling range. He has to not 3! Pre then peel with overs and a gut shot. Both entirely possible but less likely when combined.

However his turn action forces us to reconsider. Since our range includes tons of AK and TT+, v has to know he is betting into strength and that his shove is laying good odds to get called by our value range.

Therefore I think we narrow his range to Sets, only occasionally overplayed 2p and a small amount of air/pair+sd spazes. Given pot odds and our equity vs his range we call off.

I'm not sure this hand plays out any differently unless we always bet an amt on the flop that misses too much value over the long term.

Thank you for this observation, it's something that I sort of know but fail to execute correctly. I guess the assumption should be that they have an OESD and we need to give them worse than the odds to draw to their 8 outs. In this case though he was on a gut shot (broadway draw) so the only card that hurts me is a T, which of course showed up on the flop.

It seems common that guys in this game will be loose passive, so they call a lot until they make their hand. Here, he might think that I'm making a continuation bet with a lower pair, so he probably thinks he can hit any A, any K, or any T to make a potentially winning hand.

I think given the history I should have been more on the flop and probably folded the shove bet on the turn.

You should virtually never be folding top set 125bb deep. You just got unlucky. (he probably still calls your bigger flop bet, anyway).