Calling all day. AK (with or without a club), KQ, QQ with a club, or just Ac could all be making this move. You're losing to KK, 33, 44, AQcc, AJcc, but do these hands really ship it like this without trying to milk value slowly?
Here's what I think it's not:
* a bluff
* AcXc (unlikely to raise large pre and doesn't need to ship the flop)
* 33 or 44 (roughly never raising large pre, given reads that V hasn't done much).
* TT - QQ without a club. If V is the type to ship 800 with a hand like that, I'd expect other signs in previous play.
* AcXx Very few LLSNL players are shipping 800 on a semi-bluff here. Those that will are very unlikely to have been quiet previously.
IMO, this very closely matches stereotypical play of KK. The big raise pre to avoid suckouts and then the overshove with top set to, again, avoid suckouts with boating up the fallback if someone already has the flush.
We're not closing the action. Occasionally, it'll be SB that has the big hand or a big draw. If he calls, we're in bad shape.
We're either way behind -- sometimes as bad as chasing one out twice -- or somewhat ahead -- having to fade 9+ outs twice.
We're calling 340 to win 552 if we're fortunate enough to get a fold from SB, so we need 38% equity to break even (again, if SB folds).
If we give V QcQx, KK, AA, and AK with Ac, we have 41%, but if SB finds a call even occasionally, the call is either negative or breakeven at best. Making big breakeven calls adds variance without improving winrate.
I'm letting this one go.
I don't think the call is terrible, but I think spirit's range is pretty optimistic without reads that V likes to gamble it up.
This is kind of a weird hand because he shouldn't have too many flushes or bare ace of clubs hands because of pre flop and getting poor implied odds / reverse implied odds, but it is live poker so I tend to air on the side of people being too loose.
That being said, I think his range is all the sets, AK w/ the ace of clubs, and a few wtf flush combos. Even if you expand his range to this: (which is optimistic), you still don't have the equity to call.
oooof I dunno man, I think I might actually fold here. I've seen players just spaz out of sheer excitement with the nuts like this, and even lament after I folded that "gee I guess I probably shouldnt have raised so much huh?" and I just chuckle. I dont think fish really semi bluff like this, so whatever he's doing HE thinks he has the best hand and is just betting it accordingly. I've also seen players make absurd MUBS'y statements like "i didnt want someone hitting a boat on me" on an unpaired flop.
If it were heads up I would guess Ak with the Ac hoping to get you off a chop/freeroll and I would call, but multiway with a fish this feels like value and I probably find a fold.
I would love results though, I’m always curious what hands villains like to donk with.
